NICNicolet Bankshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $167.84 · now $167.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NIC has typically landed between $148.82 and $195.25 — a range of −11.3% to +16.3% from the issuance price $167.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,332 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-05-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($167.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NIC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $167.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$148.82worst · -11.3%$195.25best · +16.3%
  • now $167.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $168.83 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $158.71–$178.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $148.82–$195.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,332 windows spanning 2013-05-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−29.1%−29.1%+0.0%
2020-02-13−27.3%−27.3%+0.4%
2020-03-03−25.9%−25.9%+1.1%
3 best
2023-05-15+40.1%+0.0%+40.1%
2023-05-12+38.9%+0.0%+39.6%
2023-05-08+36.6%−3.1%+36.6%

3,332 overlapping windows · 2013-05-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
69%
+3.0%
n=13
Feb
77%
+2.5%
n=13
Mar
54%
+1.2%
n=13
Apr
46%
−1.6%
n=13
May
62%
+1.7%
n=13
Jun
71%
+3.5%
n=14
Jul
71%
+5.0%
n=14
Aug
57%
+0.3%
n=14
Sep
29%
−1.9%
n=14
Oct
69%
+1.7%
n=13
Nov
69%
+3.8%
n=13
Dec
46%
+1.5%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$179$1142026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $59K — Witczak Eric James2026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $204K — Witczak Eric James2026-07-24: 1 insider sale, $453K — ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE2026-03-12: 3 insider sales, $496K — ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE …2026-03-05: 3 insider sales, $502K — ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE …2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $994K — ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $3K — MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JR2025-11-04: 1 insider purchase, $13K — Ghidorzi Christopher J.2025-10-30: 3 insider purchases, $259K — WEYERS ROBERT J, MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JR …2025-08-27: 1 insider sale, $221K — Witczak Eric James2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $214K — Witczak Eric James2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $435K2025-10: 3 open-market purchases, $259K2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $16K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $994K2026-03: 6 open-market sales, $998K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $716K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Witczak Eric James — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Witczak Eric James — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ATWELL ROBERT BRUCE — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JR — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ghidorzi Christopher J. — Purchase on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WEYERS ROBERT J — Purchase on 2025-10-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector WEYERS ROBERT J — Purchase on 2025-10-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JR — Purchase on 2025-10-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Witczak Eric James — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Witczak Eric James — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-28Witczak Eric JamesofficerSale342 @ $171.96$59K−1.0% of holding−4.7%not yet — horizon still open33,288Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27Witczak Eric JamesofficerSale1,215 @ $167.89$204K−3.5% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open33,630Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-24ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale2,662 @ $170.24$453K−7.2% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open34,483Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale1,885 @ $149.49$282K−5.0% of holding+2.0%−1.2%35,478Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale1,324 @ $150.26$199K−3.7% of holding+2.0%−1.2%34,154Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale100 @ $150.26$15K−0.3% of holding+2.0%−1.2%34,054Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale2,815 @ $150.52$424K−7.5% of holding+2.4%−0.2%34,570Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale400 @ $151.34$61K−1.2% of holding+2.4%−0.2%34,170Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale116 @ $152.05$18K−0.3% of holding+2.4%−0.2%34,054Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale6,396 @ $155.47$994K−15.8% of holding−3.8%+0.4%34,054Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-18MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JRofficerPurchase25 @ $120.35$3K+6.7% of holding+6.8%+5.2%400Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04Ghidorzi Christopher J.directorPurchase105 @ $121.52$13K+1.3% of holding+6.2%+13.5%8,456Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-30WEYERS ROBERT JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $115.78$116K+4.0% of holding+8.9%+19.3%26,250Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-30WEYERS ROBERT JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $115.71$116Kownership Δ n/a+8.9%+19.3%1,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-30MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JRofficerPurchase240 @ $115.84$28K+0.7% of holding+8.9%+19.3%32,947Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27Witczak Eric JamesofficerSale1,588 @ $139.42$221K−5.2% of holding−6.2%+3.3%28,901Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26Witczak Eric JamesofficerSale1,564 @ $136.70$214K−5.1% of holding−5.6%+8.0%28,901Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale3,334 @ $138.83$463K−8.1% of holding−8.0%−13.1%37,790Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale2,517 @ $139.78$352K−6.7% of holding−8.0%−13.1%35,273Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale1,053 @ $140.73$148K−3.0% of holding−8.0%−13.1%34,220Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-18Witczak Eric JamesofficerSale5,000 @ $139.77$699K−14.7% of holding−9.1%−16.7%28,901Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-09ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale3,126 @ $118.30$370K−8.4% of holding+5.7%−4.5%34,220Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale2,266 @ $123.23$279K−6.1% of holding−0.7%−13.4%35,162Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale942 @ $123.88$117K−2.7% of holding−0.7%−13.4%34,220Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-23ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale3,014 @ $115.40$348K−7.5% of holding−3.0%−12.6%36,994Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-23ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale2,704 @ $116.14$314K−7.3% of holding−3.0%−12.6%34,290Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-23ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale464 @ $117.07$54K−1.4% of holding−3.0%−12.6%33,826Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-23ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale10 @ $118.08$1K−0.0% of holding−3.0%−12.6%33,816Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-21MERKATORIS SUSAN LdirectorSale3,600 @ $108.56$391K−4.4% of holding−3.4%−14.3%78,318Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-21MERKATORIS SUSAN LdirectorSale100 @ $109.23$11K−0.1% of holding−3.4%−14.3%78,218Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07MERKATORIS SUSAN LdirectorSale300 @ $115.26$35K−0.4% of holding+0.2%+6.3%81,918Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-24ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale3,102 @ $117.65$365K−8.4% of holding−0.4%+9.0%33,816Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-12ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale3,975 @ $118.08$469K−11.6% of holding+2.1%+4.4%30,317Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale150 @ $110.05$17K−100.0% of holding+10.0%+11.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27MERKATORIS SUSAN LdirectorSale1,000 @ $111.27$111K−1.2% of holding+6.8%+12.7%82,218Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-10ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale7,609 @ $113.00$860K−18.8% of holding−6.1%+5.3%32,831Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorSale8,945 @ $113.00$1.0M−21.4% of holding−5.4%+8.7%32,831Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

174 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13LONG DONALD J JRdirectorGift15080,963Form 4
2026-07-24ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorWithheld for tax4,83837,145Form 4
2026-07-24ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorOption exercise7,50041,983Form 4
2026-07-24ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorOption exercise7,50040,000Form 4
2026-06-08MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JRofficerWithheld for tax94037,921Form 4
2026-05-19LONG DONALD J JRdirectorAward / grant5696,186Form 4
2026-05-19Dykema John NicholasdirectorAward / grant55110,223Form 4
2026-05-19ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorAward / grant4981,066Form 4
2026-05-19CHANEY CARL JdirectorAward / grant498498Form 4
2026-05-19WEYERS ROBERT JdirectorAward / grant45810,260Form 4
2026-05-19ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorAward / grant42934,483Form 4
2026-05-19CHANEY CARL JdirectorAward / grant4291,196Form 4
2026-05-19LONG DONALD J JRdirectorAward / grant42981,113Form 4
2026-05-19Hayek Matthew JdirectorAward / grant4294,492Form 4
2026-05-19WEYERS ROBERT JdirectorAward / grant42952,989Form 4
2026-05-19Godwin Janet EdirectorAward / grant4293,793Form 4
2026-05-19McCormick Tracy SdirectorAward / grant42930,226Form 4
2026-05-19Smith Oliver PiercedirectorAward / grant429446,116Form 4
2026-05-19Dykema John NicholasdirectorAward / grant42944,310Form 4
2026-05-19MERKATORIS SUSAN LdirectorAward / grant42978,946Form 4
2026-05-19TELLOCK GLEN EdirectorAward / grant4292,357Form 4
2026-05-15MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JRofficerGift6538,861Form 4
2026-05-05DANIELS MICHAEL EdirectorGift7,73865,389Form 4
2026-05-05DANIELS MICHAEL EdirectorGift7,73861,452Form 4
2026-04-30DANIELS MICHAEL EdirectorGift53,71453,714Form 4
2026-04-30DANIELS MICHAEL EdirectorGift53,71473,127Form 4
2026-04-29MERKATORIS SUSAN LdirectorGift10578,517Form 4
2026-04-24MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JRofficerGift6565Form 4
2026-04-24MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JRofficerGift6538,926Form 4
2026-04-24MOORE HUBERT PHILLIP JRofficerGift6538,991Form 4
2026-04-15BOHN WILLIAM MofficerWithheld for tax94016,585Form 4
2026-04-14ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorAward / grant13568Form 4
2026-04-14WEYERS ROBERT JdirectorAward / grant69,801Form 4
2026-04-14LONG DONALD J JRdirectorAward / grant65,617Form 4
2026-04-14Dykema John NicholasdirectorAward / grant69,671Form 4
2026-03-12ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorWithheld for tax6,69137,363Form 4
2026-03-12ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorOption exercise10,00044,054Form 4
2026-03-12ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorOption exercise10,00047,500Form 4
2026-03-05ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorWithheld for tax6,66937,385Form 4
2026-03-05ATWELL ROBERT BRUCEdirectorOption exercise10,00044,054Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.