NINiSource IncUtilities · Regulated Gasas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.66 · now $40.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NI has typically landed between $37.68 and $44.07 — a range of −7.3% to +8.4% from the issuance price $40.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$37.68worst · -7.3%$44.07best · +8.4%
  • now $40.66 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.38 (+1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $40.03–$42.73
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.68–$44.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−30.6%−30.6%+0.1%
2020-02-21−30.2%−30.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−30.1%−30.3%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+28.4%+0.0%+30.8%
2009-03-03+25.7%−1.2%+29.2%
2020-03-23+24.7%+0.0%+27.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$22.4B
market cap
$2.01
EPS (TTM)
23.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$6.6B
'20'25
Net income$930M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$420M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.72
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $40.66$23.43$54.12
  • DCF (intrinsic)$25.55
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$45.37
  • Analyst target · range $50.00–$52.00$51.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$40.66

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+1.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Mar
79%
+3.6%
n=19
Apr
74%
+2.4%
n=19
May
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
37%
−1.0%
n=19
Sep
58%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
67%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$49$392026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — BIRMINGHAM MELODY2026-05-22: 1 insider sale, $715K — Berman Melanie B.2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $950K — Yates Lloyd M2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $119K — BIRMINGHAM MELODY2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $472K — BIRMINGHAM MELODY2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $100K — Gode Gunnar2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $563K — Anderson Shawn2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $345K — Cuccia Kimberly S2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $470K — Anderson Shawn2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $470K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $345K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $663K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $2.3M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector BIRMINGHAM MELODY — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Berman Melanie B. — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Yates Lloyd M — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradedirector BIRMINGHAM MELODY — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIRMINGHAM MELODY — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 7 days after the tradeofficer Gode Gunnar — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Anderson Shawn — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Cuccia Kimberly S — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Anderson Shawn — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorSale37,509 @ $42.40$1.6M−32.3% of holding−2.1%not yet — horizon still open78,527Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22Berman Melanie B.officerSale15,000 @ $47.68$715K−29.4% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open35,990Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-21Yates Lloyd MdirectorSale19,905 @ $47.73$950K−3.7% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open519,557Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-20BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorSale2,500 @ $47.43$119K−2.1% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open116,036Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorSale10,000 @ $47.19$472K−7.8% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open117,899Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2026-02-18Gode GunnarofficerSale2,175 @ $46.00$100K−6.9% of holding+6.9%−20.2%29,257Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13Anderson ShawnofficerSale12,500 @ $45.01$563K−8.4% of holding+3.6%−22.0%136,302Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25Cuccia Kimberly SofficerSale8,000 @ $43.13$345K−16.2% of holding−5.9%−4.2%41,247Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28Anderson ShawnofficerSale11,115 @ $42.33$470K−7.0% of holding−0.0%+6.8%147,777Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-30Berman Melanie B.officerSale6,227 @ $39.42$245K−17.7% of holding−3.8%−3.5%28,882Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16Yates Lloyd MdirectorSale16,127 @ $38.93$628K−4.4% of holding−0.1%−2.6%351,748Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-14Jesanis Michael EdirectorSale6,178 @ $37.81$234K−25.0% of holding+2.7%−0.2%18,541Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Jesanis Michael EdirectorSale4,000 @ $38.22$153K−13.9% of holding+2.7%+0.7%24,719Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Anderson ShawnofficerSale12,900 @ $40.79$526K−7.6% of holding+1.6%−6.8%157,879Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14Gode GunnarofficerSale5,500 @ $39.92$220K−18.2% of holding+6.1%+0.4%24,758Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

95 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-13Jesanis Michael EdirectorOther acquisition30,19052,701Form 4
2026-05-11ALTABEF PETERdirectorAward / grant3,80756,615Form 4
2026-05-11Barbour Sondra LdirectorAward / grant3,80729,197Form 4
2026-05-11BUTLER ERIC LdirectorAward / grant3,80767,692Form 4
2026-05-11Bunting Theodore H JRdirectorAward / grant3,80749,932Form 4
2026-05-11HENRETTA DEBORAH AdirectorAward / grant3,80777,152Form 4
2026-05-11Hersman DeborahdirectorAward / grant3,80747,200Form 4
2026-05-11Jesanis Michael EdirectorAward / grant3,80722,482Form 4
2026-05-11KABAT KEVIN TdirectorAward / grant3,80766,456Form 4
2026-05-11McAvoy JohndirectorAward / grant3,80715,777Form 4
2026-05-11Lee Cassandra S.directorAward / grant3,80728,974Form 4
2026-05-11JOHNSON WILLIAM DdirectorAward / grant3,80728,431Form 4
2026-02-27Yates Lloyd MdirectorAward / grant275,962672,010Form 4
2026-02-27Yates Lloyd MdirectorWithheld for tax117,285554,725Form 4
2026-02-27BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorAward / grant71,094162,434Form 4
2026-02-27Luhrs MichaelofficerAward / grant61,811151,375Form 4
2026-02-27Jefferson William Jr.officerAward / grant60,623127,357Form 4
2026-02-27Anderson ShawnofficerAward / grant32,551169,393Form 4
2026-02-27Berman Melanie B.officerAward / grant31,46665,829Form 4
2026-02-27Cuccia Kimberly SofficerAward / grant30,74477,928Form 4
2026-02-27BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorWithheld for tax30,427132,007Form 4
2026-02-27Luhrs MichaelofficerWithheld for tax27,569123,806Form 4
2026-02-27Jefferson William Jr.officerWithheld for tax25,504101,853Form 4
2026-02-27Anderson ShawnofficerAward / grant23,883193,276Form 4
2026-02-27Yates Lloyd MdirectorWithheld for tax15,433539,292Form 4
2026-02-27Anderson ShawnofficerWithheld for tax13,705179,571Form 4
2026-02-27Cuccia Kimberly SofficerWithheld for tax12,10965,819Form 4
2026-02-27Berman Melanie B.officerWithheld for tax11,67354,156Form 4
2026-02-27Anderson ShawnofficerWithheld for tax10,056169,515Form 4
2026-02-27Gode GunnarofficerAward / grant6,42035,677Form 4
2026-02-27Anderson ShawnofficerWithheld for tax4,414165,101Form 4
2026-02-27BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorWithheld for tax4,108127,899Form 4
2026-02-27Luhrs MichaelofficerWithheld for tax3,628120,178Form 4
2026-02-27Jefferson William Jr.officerWithheld for tax3,47898,375Form 4
2026-02-27Berman Melanie B.officerWithheld for tax3,16650,990Form 4
2026-02-27Cuccia Kimberly SofficerWithheld for tax3,09362,726Form 4
2026-02-27Gode GunnarofficerWithheld for tax1,90233,775Form 4
2026-02-27Gode GunnarofficerWithheld for tax66733,108Form 4
2026-01-26Anderson ShawnofficerWithheld for tax7,839148,802Form 4
2026-01-22Yates Lloyd MdirectorAward / grant43,658395,950Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-09$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$50–100K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2025-05-162025-04-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-13$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2024-04-252024-04-10$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2021-04-232021-03-19$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2021-01-092020-12-18$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2020-06-152020-05-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-05-132020-04-07$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2020-05-072020-04-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-03-092020-02-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-02-102020-01-08$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.