Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.12 · now $16.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NHP has typically landed between $14.85 and $18.65 — a range of −7.9% to +15.7% from the issuance price $16.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
81 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NHP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.98 (+5.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.28–$17.68
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.85–$18.65
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-18 | −10.3% | −10.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-15 | −9.3% | −9.3% | +1.2% |
| 2026-05-14 | −4.7% | −4.7% | +4.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-22 | +21.5% | +0.0% | +25.3% |
| 2026-06-16 | +18.3% | +0.0% | +18.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | +17.8% | +0.0% | +20.3% |
81 overlapping windows · 2026-04-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
18 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Campbell Albert M III | director | Award / grant | 4,693 | 5,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Penn Buddie J | director | Award / grant | 7,446 | 19,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Weil Edward M Jr. | director | Award / grant | 7,446 | 19,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Humphrey Scott | director | Award / grant | 9,935 | 22,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MICHELSON LESLIE D | director | Award / grant | 7,446 | 19,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Tuppeny Elizabeth K. | director | Award / grant | 7,446 | 19,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | BABIN ANDREW T. | officer | Award / grant | 41,667 | 191,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Rendell Edward G | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 24,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Tuppeny Elizabeth K. | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Penn Buddie J | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Anderson Michael Ray | director | Award / grant | 348,665 | 348,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Anderson Michael Ray | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 423,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | PARK AILIN SEE | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | PARK AILIN SEE | officer | Award / grant | 5,209 | 30,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | MICHELSON LESLIE D | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Weil Edward M Jr. | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Humphrey Scott | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | BABIN ANDREW T. | officer | Award / grant | 149,428 | 149,428 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.