NHINational Health Investors, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $68.16 · now $68.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NHI has typically landed between $61.54 and $75.66 — a range of −9.7% to +11.0% from the issuance price $68.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($68.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NHI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $68.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$61.54worst · -9.7%$75.66best · +11.0%
  • now $68.16 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $69.04 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $66.13–$71.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $61.54–$75.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−62.3%−62.3%+2.1%
2020-02-21−59.4%−63.0%+0.0%
2020-02-20−58.0%−62.8%+0.7%
3 best
2020-03-18+65.4%+0.0%+76.0%
2008-11-21+44.2%+0.0%+49.1%
2008-11-20+43.7%−0.1%+48.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+2.4%
n=20
Feb
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
75%
+2.5%
n=20
Apr
65%
+0.3%
n=20
May
60%
+1.0%
n=20
Jun
65%
+1.2%
n=20
Jul
75%
+3.3%
n=20
Aug
65%
+0.5%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Oct
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Nov
50%
+0.0%
n=20
Dec
70%
+3.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$89$682026-06-15: 1 insider purchase, $64K — MCCABE ROBERT A JR2026-06-05: 1 insider purchase, $103K — Mendelsohn D. Eric2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $167K↑ buys↓ salesdirector MCCABE ROBERT A JR — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed same daydirector Mendelsohn D. Eric — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15MCCABE ROBERT A JRdirectorPurchase890 @ $71.65$64K+2.1% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open44,159Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05Mendelsohn D. EricdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $68.84$103K+1.1% of holding+8.8%not yet — horizon still open133,316Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

145 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-27Maingot Christian KenofficerAward / grant2,3702,370Form 4
2026-06-05Jobe James RdirectorGift22533,272Form 4
2026-05-05Mendelsohn D. EricdirectorWithheld for tax394131,816Form 4
2026-05-05Spaid John LofficerWithheld for tax31456,287Form 4
2026-05-05Travis David LofficerWithheld for tax28240,565Form 4
2026-03-03Spaid John LofficerWithheld for tax13,59456,255Form 4
2026-03-03Spaid John LofficerOption exercise15,00069,849Form 4
2026-03-03Mendelsohn D. EricdirectorWithheld for tax597132,210Form 4
2026-03-03Spaid John LofficerWithheld for tax51154,849Form 4
2026-03-03Travis David LofficerWithheld for tax41140,847Form 4
2026-03-03Spaid John LofficerOption exercise15,0000Form 4
2026-03-03Jobe James RdirectorAward / grant1,2681,268Form 4
2026-03-03Mendelsohn D. EricdirectorAward / grant14,409132,807Form 4
2026-03-03Travis David LofficerAward / grant3,45841,258Form 4
2026-03-03Todd Candice WdirectorAward / grant1,2682,563Form 4
2026-03-03PASCOE KEVIN CARLTONofficerAward / grant5,07273,428Form 4
2026-03-03Spaid John LofficerAward / grant4,72655,360Form 4
2026-03-03Chapin RobertdirectorAward / grant1,2681,268Form 4
2026-03-03COLDEN TRACY M JdirectorAward / grant1,26812,858Form 4
2026-03-03MCCABE ROBERT A JRdirectorAward / grant1,26843,269Form 4
2026-03-03Blankenship Elizabeth JacksonofficerAward / grant2,4202,420Form 4
2026-03-03Donohue LillydirectorAward / grant1,2681,268Form 4
2026-02-23Travis David LofficerWithheld for tax19,32237,800Form 4
2026-02-23Mendelsohn D. EricdirectorWithheld for tax10,192118,592Form 4
2026-02-23Mendelsohn D. EricdirectorOption exercise13,334128,784Form 4
2026-02-23PASCOE KEVIN CARLTONofficerWithheld for tax6,40968,356Form 4
2026-02-23Spaid John LofficerWithheld for tax6,31250,870Form 4
2026-02-23PASCOE KEVIN CARLTONofficerOption exercise8,50074,765Form 4
2026-02-23Spaid John LofficerOption exercise8,50057,182Form 4
2026-02-23Travis David LofficerOption exercise8,33457,122Form 4
2026-02-23Travis David LofficerOption exercise8,33340,455Form 4
2026-02-23Travis David LofficerOption exercise8,33348,788Form 4
2026-02-23Spaid John LofficerWithheld for tax23650,634Form 4
2026-02-23Mendelsohn D. EricdirectorWithheld for tax194118,398Form 4
2026-02-23PASCOE KEVIN CARLTONofficerOption exercise8,5000Form 4
2026-02-23Mendelsohn D. EricdirectorOption exercise13,3340Form 4
2026-02-23Spaid John LofficerOption exercise8,5000Form 4
2026-02-23Travis David LofficerOption exercise8,3330Form 4
2026-02-23Travis David LofficerOption exercise8,3340Form 4
2026-02-19COLDEN TRACY M JdirectorWithheld for tax8,26711,590Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.