NGVT · TickerCove

NGVTIngevity CorporationBasic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $68.23 · now $68.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NGVT has typically landed between $56.23 and $81.56 — a range of −17.6% to +19.5% from the issuance price $68.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,588 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-05-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($68.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$68.23 · 70% of range

$46.2 low$77.87 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.4%

typical move · IQR 18.1%

−17.6%worst (p90)+19.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NGVT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $68.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $68.23 (+0.0%)
typical $68.53 (+0.4%)
middle 50% $62.37–$74.7
90% range $56.23–$81.56

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,588 windows spanning 2016-05-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−57.2%	−57.2%	+0.2%
2020-02-20	−55.2%	−55.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−52.1%	−57.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-10-23	+53.2%	+0.0%	+53.2%
2024-10-24	+50.8%	+0.0%	+50.8%
2024-10-25	+49.2%	+0.0%	+49.2%

2,588 overlapping windows · 2016-05-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+0.2%

n=10

Feb

80%

+2.1%

n=10

Mar

30%

−4.3%

n=10

Apr

80%

+5.9%

n=10

May

40%

−3.2%

n=10

Jun

55%

+5.1%

n=11

Jul

73%

+5.7%

n=11

Aug

45%

+0.2%

n=11

Sep

27%

−3.8%

n=11

Oct

50%

+1.3%

n=10

Nov

70%

+9.3%

n=10

Dec

40%

−0.2%

n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-18	Li David H	director	Sale	92 @ $74.71	$7K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	120,544	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17	Li David H	director	Sale	5,000 @ $75.83	$379K	−4.0% of holding	−7.6%	not yet — horizon still open	120,636	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14	Li David H	director	Sale	5,000 @ $75.73	$379K	−3.8% of holding	−9.2%	not yet — horizon still open	125,636	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13	Li David H	director	Sale	5,000 @ $75.73	$379K	−3.7% of holding	−7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	130,636	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Li David H	director	Sale	5,000 @ $76.62	$383K	−3.6% of holding	−7.8%	not yet — horizon still open	135,636	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03	Fisher Ryan C.	officer	Sale	1,397 @ $73.76	$103K	−7.6% of holding	−7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	17,034	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Fisher Ryan C.	officer	Sale	1,312 @ $73.67	$97K	−7.7% of holding	−7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	15,722	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28	DYER TERRANCE M	officer	Sale	266 @ $68.45	$18K	−3.5% of holding	+9.5%	not yet — horizon still open	7,432	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28	DYER TERRANCE M	officer	Sale	200 @ $68.53	$14K	−2.7% of holding	+9.5%	not yet — horizon still open	7,202	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28	DYER TERRANCE M	officer	Sale	30 @ $68.57	$2K	−0.4% of holding	+9.5%	not yet — horizon still open	7,402	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	PLATT PHILLIP JOHN	officer	Withheld for tax	1,698	26,641	Form 4
2026-07-24	PLATT PHILLIP JOHN	officer	Withheld for tax	3,294	28,339	Form 4
2026-07-06	Fisher Ryan C.	officer	Withheld for tax	168	18,431	Form 4
2026-07-01	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Award / grant	397	11,478	Form 4
2026-07-01	Segal Francis David	director	Award / grant	328	8,612	Form 4
2026-06-22	Cotterman Ryan Joseph	officer	Award / grant	2,063	2,063	Form 4
2026-05-01	PLATT PHILLIP JOHN	officer	Award / grant	1,262	31,633	Form 4
2026-04-30	FERNANDEZ-MORENO LUIS M	director	Award / grant	1,904	37,882	Form 4
2026-04-30	Lynch Frederick J	director	Award / grant	1,904	28,263	Form 4
2026-04-30	Segal Francis David	director	Award / grant	1,904	8,284	Form 4
2026-04-30	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Award / grant	1,904	11,081	Form 4
2026-04-30	Gulyas Diane H.	director	Award / grant	1,904	14,788	Form 4
2026-04-30	Hoechner Bruce D.	director	Award / grant	1,904	10,732	Form 4
2026-04-30	NARWOLD KAREN G	director	Award / grant	1,904	18,900	Form 4
2026-04-30	Wright Benjamin G.	director	Award / grant	1,904	11,948	Form 4
2026-04-07	Li David H	director	Withheld for tax	13,102	144,210	Form 4
2026-04-07	Li David H	director	Withheld for tax	3,574	140,636	Form 4
2026-04-01	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Award / grant	398	9,177	Form 4
2026-04-01	Segal Francis David	director	Award / grant	329	6,380	Form 4
2026-03-25	Fisher Ryan C.	officer	Withheld for tax	308	18,194	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hall Mary Dean	director	Withheld for tax	1,679	37,427	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hall Mary Dean	director	Withheld for tax	1,363	39,665	Form 4
2026-03-02	White Richard Allen JR	officer	Withheld for tax	755	20,080	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hall Mary Dean	director	Withheld for tax	747	41,028	Form 4
2026-03-02	Fisher Ryan C.	officer	Withheld for tax	680	18,502	Form 4
2026-03-02	White Richard Allen JR	officer	Withheld for tax	617	21,052	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hall Mary Dean	director	Withheld for tax	559	39,106	Form 4
2026-03-02	DYER TERRANCE M	officer	Withheld for tax	550	7,698	Form 4
2026-03-02	PLATT PHILLIP JOHN	officer	Withheld for tax	407	30,388	Form 4
2026-03-02	Fisher Ryan C.	officer	Withheld for tax	355	19,285	Form 4
2026-03-02	White Richard Allen JR	officer	Withheld for tax	351	21,669	Form 4
2026-03-02	PLATT PHILLIP JOHN	officer	Withheld for tax	340	29,949	Form 4
2026-03-02	Clontz Clarence Reid Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	270	8,980	Form 4
2026-03-02	Clontz Clarence Reid Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	264	9,299	Form 4
2026-03-02	PLATT PHILLIP JOHN	officer	Withheld for tax	224	30,795	Form 4
2026-03-02	White Richard Allen JR	officer	Withheld for tax	217	20,835	Form 4
2026-03-02	Fisher Ryan C.	officer	Withheld for tax	195	19,640	Form 4
2026-03-02	Clontz Clarence Reid Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	143	9,563	Form 4
2026-03-02	Fisher Ryan C.	officer	Withheld for tax	103	19,182	Form 4
2026-03-02	PLATT PHILLIP JOHN	officer	Withheld for tax	99	30,289	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i