Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.33 · now $16.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NGL has typically landed between $13.50 and $21.74 — a range of −17.3% to +33.1% from the issuance price $16.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,837 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-05-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NGL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.6 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.04–$18.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.5–$21.74
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −84.2% | −84.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −77.1% | −77.1% | +0.4% |
| 2020-03-02 | −74.2% | −81.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-06 | +186.4% | +0.0% | +203.4% |
| 2020-04-03 | +183.3% | −1.7% | +198.3% |
| 2020-04-07 | +176.1% | +0.0% | +191.8% |
3,837 overlapping windows · 2011-05-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | COLLINGSWORTH JAMES M | director | Purchase | 2,289 @ $17.00 | $39K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 766,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | COLLINGSWORTH JAMES M | director | Purchase | 200 @ $16.96 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 764,508 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | KRIMBILL H MICHAEL | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $17.00 | $5.1M | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,378,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | RAYMOND JOHN T | director | Purchase | 300,000 @ $16.98 | $5.1M | +391.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 376,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | COLLINGSWORTH JAMES M | director | Purchase | 10,808 @ $16.82 | $182K | +1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 764,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | RAYMOND JOHN T | director | Purchase | 25,500 @ $16.22 | $414K | +49.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | RAYMOND JOHN T | director | Purchase | 1,126 @ $16.25 | $18K | +2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 51,126 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | COLLINGSWORTH JAMES M | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $5.80 | $580K | +15.9% of holding | +5.6% | +95.1% | 729,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | KRIMBILL H MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 45,000 @ $4.80 | $216K | +7.5% of holding | +3.1% | −3.9% | 648,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | KRIMBILL H MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 14,017 @ $4.78 | $67K | +0.5% of holding | +3.1% | −3.9% | 2,978,615 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | KRIMBILL H MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 25,983 @ $4.32 | $112K | +0.9% of holding | +9.0% | +3.4% | 2,964,598 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | KRIMBILL H MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $4.49 | $67K | +2.6% of holding | +9.0% | +3.4% | 603,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
6 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | COLLINGSWORTH JAMES M | director | Award / grant | 24,000 | 753,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Coady Shawn W | director | Award / grant | 24,000 | 196,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Cooper Bradley P | officer | Award / grant | 600,000 | 800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | GUDERIAN BRYAN K | director | Award / grant | 24,000 | 146,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | KRIMBILL H MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 700,000 | 3,678,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | REINERS DEREK S | director | Award / grant | 24,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.