NG · TickerCove

NGNovaGold Resources Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.99 · now $6.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NG has typically landed between $5.35 and $9.21 — a range of −23.4% to +31.7% from the issuance price $6.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.99 · 20% of range

$5.18 low$14.2 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.7%

typical move · IQR 20.4%

−23.4%worst (p90)+31.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.99 (+0.0%)
typical $6.94 (-0.7%)
middle 50% $6.23–$7.66
90% range $5.35–$9.21

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-11-05	−86.5%	−86.5%	+0.0%
2008-11-04	−85.7%	−86.3%	+1.5%
2008-11-10	−84.6%	−85.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-04	+372.3%	−4.3%	+412.8%
2008-12-05	+355.6%	+0.0%	+435.6%
2008-12-08	+337.0%	+0.0%	+423.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

39%

+7.9%

n=18

Feb

42%

+1.9%

n=19

Mar

42%

−2.6%

n=19

Apr

37%

+4.6%

n=19

May

47%

+1.8%

n=19

Jun

26%

−3.8%

n=19

Jul

53%

+5.0%

n=19

Aug

47%

+3.1%

n=19

Sep

47%

−0.5%

n=19

Oct

33%

−3.3%

n=18

Nov

56%

+2.8%

n=18

Dec

61%

+10.1%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-06	Muniz Quintanilla Daniel	director	Purchase	22,470 @ $8.94	$201K	+99.6% of holding	+35.9%	−10.1%	45,021	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-04	Whittaker Dawn Patricia	director	Purchase	4,000 @ $9.36	$37K	ownership Δ n/a	+35.1%	−8.8%	4,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27	Dorward-King Elaine J	director	Sale	11 @ $10.41	$115	−0.0% of holding	+8.8%	−44.6%	35,265	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28	Schutt Ethan	director	Purchase	3,824 @ $5.23	$20K	+8.0% of holding	+24.1%	+114.7%	51,735	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-30	KYLE HUME D.	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.10	$41K	+81.0% of holding	+22.5%	+120.1%	22,348	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-09	Electrum Strategic Resources L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	13,333,334 @ $3.75	$50.0M	+16.8% of holding	+7.4%	+97.1%	92,902,813	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	KAPLAN THOMAS SCOTT	director	Award / grant	1,151	120,419	Form 4
2026-09-01	Erfan Ali	director	Award / grant	1,151	5,048	Form 4
2026-09-01	Dorward-King Elaine J	director	Award / grant	1,151	38,583	Form 4
2026-09-01	Muniz Quintanilla Daniel	director	Award / grant	1,151	48,339	Form 4
2026-09-01	Schutt Ethan	director	Award / grant	576	54,798	Form 4
2026-09-01	Whittaker Dawn Patricia	director	Award / grant	1,151	25,869	Form 4
2026-09-01	MCARTHUR C. KEVIN	director	Award / grant	576	19,465	Form 4
2026-09-01	MADHAVPEDDI KALIDAS V	director	Award / grant	576	63,858	Form 4
2026-09-01	KYLE HUME D.	director	Award / grant	1,151	26,637	Form 4
2026-06-30	Lang Gregory A.	director	Award / grant	1,909	113,245	Form 4
2026-06-30	WILLIAMS RICHARD ALAN	officer	Award / grant	994	452,530	Form 4
2026-06-30	ADAMEK PETER	officer	Award / grant	889	12,171	Form 4
2026-06-01	KYLE HUME D.	director	Award / grant	1,302	25,486	Form 4
2026-06-01	MADHAVPEDDI KALIDAS V	director	Award / grant	651	63,282	Form 4
2026-06-01	MCARTHUR C. KEVIN	director	Award / grant	651	18,889	Form 4
2026-06-01	Muniz Quintanilla Daniel	director	Award / grant	1,302	47,188	Form 4
2026-06-01	Whittaker Dawn Patricia	director	Award / grant	1,302	24,718	Form 4
2026-06-01	Schutt Ethan	director	Award / grant	651	54,222	Form 4
2026-06-01	KAPLAN THOMAS SCOTT	director	Award / grant	1,302	119,268	Form 4
2026-06-01	Dorward-King Elaine J	director	Award / grant	1,302	37,432	Form 4
2026-06-01	Erfan Ali	director	Award / grant	1,302	3,897	Form 4
2026-03-31	Lang Gregory A.	director	Award / grant	1,622	111,336	Form 4
2026-03-31	WILLIAMS RICHARD ALAN	officer	Award / grant	839	451,536	Form 4
2026-03-31	ADAMEK PETER	officer	Award / grant	755	11,282	Form 4
2026-03-02	Dorward-King Elaine J	director	Award / grant	865	36,130	Form 4
2026-03-02	Schutt Ethan	director	Award / grant	432	53,571	Form 4
2026-03-02	Muniz Quintanilla Daniel	director	Award / grant	865	45,886	Form 4
2026-03-02	KYLE HUME D.	director	Award / grant	432	24,184	Form 4
2026-03-02	Whittaker Dawn Patricia	director	Award / grant	865	23,416	Form 4
2026-03-02	Erfan Ali	director	Award / grant	432	2,595	Form 4
2026-03-02	MCARTHUR C. KEVIN	director	Award / grant	432	18,238	Form 4
2026-03-02	MADHAVPEDDI KALIDAS V	director	Award / grant	432	62,631	Form 4
2026-03-01	KAPLAN THOMAS SCOTT	director	Award / grant	865	117,966	Form 4
2026-02-02	Lang Gregory A.	director	Award / grant	190,200	190,200	Form 4
2026-02-02	KAPLAN THOMAS SCOTT	director	Award / grant	36,600	36,600	Form 4
2026-02-02	Muniz Quintanilla Daniel	director	Award / grant	36,600	36,600	Form 4
2026-02-02	KYLE HUME D.	director	Award / grant	38,200	38,200	Form 4
2026-02-02	MCARTHUR C. KEVIN	director	Award / grant	36,600	36,600	Form 4
2026-02-02	ADAMEK PETER	officer	Award / grant	124,100	124,100	Form 4
2026-02-02	ADAMEK PETER	officer	Award / grant	59,000	59,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i