Issued 2026-09-16 at $76.41 · now $76.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NFLX has typically landed between $65.19 and $92.14 — a range of −14.7% to +20.6% from the issuance price $76.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($76.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NFLX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $76.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $76.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $77.72 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $71.82–$83.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.19–$92.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −52.2% | −52.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-11 | −52.2% | −52.2% | +0.7% |
| 2011-08-30 | −52.1% | −52.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-01-17 | +100.7% | +0.0% | +100.7% |
| 2013-01-16 | +95.0% | +0.0% | +95.0% |
| 2013-01-22 | +90.7% | +0.0% | +100.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$291.9B
market cap
$3.18
EPS (TTM)
22.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$45.2B
'20'25
Net income$11.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr24.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr41.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.54
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$120.63
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$50.96
- Analyst target · range $75.00–$119.00$91.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$76.41
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
78%
+17.8%
n=18
Feb
79%
+4.2%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.9%
n=19
Apr
47%
+0.3%
n=19
May
63%
+5.3%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
47%
+2.5%
n=19
Aug
63%
+4.9%
n=19
Sep
53%
−2.4%
n=19
Oct
67%
+4.5%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Sale | 720 @ $75.27 | $54K | −22.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,460 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Sale | 720 @ $76.26 | $55K | −22.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Sale | 720 @ $77.60 | $56K | −22.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Sale | 9,248 @ $75.79 | $701K | −11.1% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,787 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Peters Gregory K | director | Sale | 27,312 @ $73.54 | $2.0M | −18.4% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,931 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Sale | 2,160 @ $75.10 | $162K | −89.8% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Sale | 27,312 @ $73.35 | $2.0M | −13.2% of holding | +13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,954 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | HYMAN DAVID A | officer | Sale | 5,723 @ $72.85 | $417K | −1.8% of holding | +13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Sale | 81,891 @ $72.90 | $6.0M | −26.2% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Sale | 23,959 @ $73.48 | $1.8M | −10.4% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 206,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 22,190 @ $77.21 | $1.7M | −19.2% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 13,800 @ $78.01 | $1.1M | −14.8% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 332,917 @ $85.85 | $28.6M | −85.2% of holding | −12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 53,783 @ $86.73 | $4.7M | −93.2% of holding | −12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Peters Gregory K | director | Sale | 27,312 @ $88.69 | $2.4M | −18.4% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,931 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-07 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Sale | 9,253 @ $88.95 | $823K | −11.1% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,787 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Sale | 13,017 @ $87.96 | $1.1M | −4.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 299,099 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Sale | 7,256 @ $87.97 | $638K | −2.4% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 291,843 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Sale | 7,039 @ $87.98 | $619K | −2.4% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,804 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | HYMAN DAVID A | officer | Sale | 5,722 @ $88.08 | $504K | −1.8% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 188,425 @ $92.28 | $17.4M | −45.8% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 223,065 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 113,334 @ $94.17 | $10.7M | −96.6% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,940 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 105,791 @ $93.54 | $9.9M | −47.4% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,274 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Sale | 28,630 @ $98.00 | $2.8M | −28.0% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 247,923 @ $95.68 | $23.7M | −91.0% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 152,047 @ $95.02 | $14.4M | −35.8% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 272,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 20,580 @ $96.66 | $2.0M | −83.9% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 227,680 @ $96.92 | $22.1M | −63.3% of holding | +4.0% | −28.9% | 132,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 128,189 @ $97.59 | $12.5M | −97.0% of holding | +4.0% | −28.9% | 3,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | HASTINGS REED | director | Sale | 54,681 @ $96.06 | $5.3M | −13.2% of holding | +4.0% | −28.9% | 359,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Sale | 28,630 @ $97.00 | $2.8M | −28.0% of holding | +4.0% | −28.9% | 73,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Sale | 28,630 @ $96.00 | $2.7M | −28.0% of holding | +4.2% | −27.8% | 73,787 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Sale | 28,630 @ $95.00 | $2.7M | −21.8% of holding | +4.2% | −27.8% | 102,417 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Peters Gregory K | director | Sale | 14,719 @ $82.74 | $1.2M | −9.8% of holding | +18.5% | −21.9% | 134,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Peters Gregory K | director | Sale | 11,283 @ $83.76 | $945K | −8.4% of holding | +18.5% | −21.9% | 123,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Willems Cletus R | officer | Sale | 3,136 @ $82.67 | $259K | −100.0% of holding | +18.5% | −21.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Peters Gregory K | director | Sale | 1,310 @ $84.40 | $111K | −1.1% of holding | +18.5% | −21.9% | 122,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | HYMAN DAVID A | officer | Sale | 5,727 @ $81.06 | $464K | −1.8% of holding | +19.0% | −19.8% | 316,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Sale | 9,248 @ $81.27 | $752K | −11.1% of holding | +19.9% | −19.7% | 73,787 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
261 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 720 | 3,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 720 | 1,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 490 | 3,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 230 | 2,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 490 | 1,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 230 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 720 | 3,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 720 | 230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Masiyiwa Strive | director | Award / grant | 774 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | RICE SUSAN E | director | Award / grant | 774 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hoag Jay C | director | Award / grant | 774 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Dopfner Mathias | director | Award / grant | 774 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | KILGORE LESLIE J | director | Award / grant | 774 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | MATHER ANN | director | Award / grant | 774 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Award / grant | 774 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mertz Elinor | director | Award / grant | 773 | 773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Award / grant | 774 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Karbowski Jeffrey William | officer | Award / grant | 902 | 902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 2,160 | 2,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | BARTON RICHARD N | director | Option exercise | 2,160 | 950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Peters Gregory K | director | Withheld for tax | 12,908 | 162,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Withheld for tax | 12,908 | 326,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Peters Gregory K | director | Withheld for tax | 7,189 | 155,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Withheld for tax | 7,189 | 319,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Peters Gregory K | director | Withheld for tax | 6,979 | 148,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Withheld for tax | 6,979 | 312,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 4,371 | 87,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HYMAN DAVID A | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,709 | 324,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 2,435 | 85,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Neumann Spencer Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 2,364 | 83,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Willems Cletus R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,550 | 7,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HYMAN DAVID A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,504 | 323,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HYMAN DAVID A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,464 | 321,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Willems Cletus R | officer | Withheld for tax | 754 | 6,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Willems Cletus R | officer | Withheld for tax | 717 | 7,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Willems Cletus R | officer | Option exercise | 1,460 | 7,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Willems Cletus R | officer | Option exercise | 3,160 | 18,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Peters Gregory K | director | Option exercise | 14,440 | 72,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Peters Gregory K | director | Option exercise | 25,930 | 25,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Dopfner Mathias | director | Award / grant | 852 | 852 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-14 | $15–50K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Angus King | Senate | sale | 2026-03-24 | 2026-02-13 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-27 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.