NFG · TickerCove

NFGNational Fuel Gas Companyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $80.35 · now $80.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NFG has typically landed between $73.85 and $87.94 — a range of −8.1% to +9.4% from the issuance price $80.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($80.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$80.35 · 25% of range

$75.35 low$95.3 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.3%

typical move · IQR 7.5%

−8.1%worst (p90)+9.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

5 buys · 9 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NFG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $80.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $80.35 (+0.0%)
typical $81.42 (+1.3%)
middle 50% $78.41–$84.44
90% range $73.85–$87.94

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-11	−34.1%	−34.1%	+7.8%
2008-09-16	−31.0%	−35.4%	+5.6%
2008-09-26	−29.4%	−34.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2011-10-03	+31.5%	+0.0%	+37.7%
2009-07-10	+29.8%	+0.0%	+29.8%
2009-07-09	+29.2%	+0.0%	+29.2%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

−0.1%

n=18

Feb

79%

+2.7%

n=19

Mar

79%

+3.3%

n=19

Apr

47%

+1.3%

n=19

May

53%

+0.3%

n=19

Jun

58%

+0.3%

n=19

Jul

58%

+1.0%

n=19

Aug

58%

+0.4%

n=19

Sep

47%

−1.4%

n=19

Oct

39%

+0.9%

n=18

Nov

50%

+0.1%

n=18

Dec

44%

+0.1%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

300 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Ranich Rebecca	director	Award / grant	564	19,233	Form 4
2026-07-01	BAUMANN BARBARA M	director	Award / grant	564	22,323	Form 4
2026-07-01	ANDERSON DAVID HUGO	director	Award / grant	564	19,233	Form 4
2026-07-01	Carroll David C.	director	Award / grant	564	19,233	Form 4
2026-07-01	Finch Steven C.	director	Award / grant	564	19,233	Form 4
2026-07-01	JAGGERS JOSEPH N	director	Award / grant	564	34,514	Form 4
2026-07-01	SHAW JEFFREY W	director	Award / grant	564	36,798	Form 4
2026-07-01	TANSKI RONALD J	director	Award / grant	564	358,097	Form 4
2026-07-01	SMITH DAVID F	director	Award / grant	564	19,233	Form 4
2026-07-01	SKAINS THOMAS E	director	Award / grant	564	19,233	Form 4
2026-04-15	Carroll David C.	director	Other acquisition	182	30,804	Form 4
2026-04-15	ANDERSON DAVID HUGO	director	Other acquisition	108	18,669	Form 4
2026-04-15	SKAINS THOMAS E	director	Other acquisition	108	18,669	Form 4
2026-04-15	Ranich Rebecca	director	Other acquisition	108	18,669	Form 4
2026-04-15	Carroll David C.	director	Other acquisition	108	18,669	Form 4
2026-04-15	SMITH DAVID F	director	Other acquisition	108	18,669	Form 4
2026-04-15	Finch Steven C.	director	Other acquisition	108	18,669	Form 4
2026-04-15	Ranich Rebecca	director	Other acquisition	106	18,025	Form 4
2026-04-15	ANDERSON DAVID HUGO	director	Other acquisition	2	221	Form 4
2026-04-01	SMITH DAVID F	director	Award / grant	469	18,561	Form 4
2026-04-01	BAUMANN BARBARA M	director	Award / grant	469	21,759	Form 4
2026-04-01	ANDERSON DAVID HUGO	director	Award / grant	469	18,561	Form 4
2026-04-01	TANSKI RONALD J	director	Award / grant	469	357,533	Form 4
2026-04-01	Carroll David C.	director	Award / grant	469	18,561	Form 4
2026-04-01	JAGGERS JOSEPH N	director	Award / grant	469	33,950	Form 4
2026-04-01	Finch Steven C.	director	Award / grant	469	18,561	Form 4
2026-04-01	Ranich Rebecca	director	Award / grant	469	18,561	Form 4
2026-04-01	SHAW JEFFREY W	director	Award / grant	469	36,234	Form 4
2026-04-01	SKAINS THOMAS E	director	Award / grant	469	18,561	Form 4
2026-01-15	Carroll David C.	director	Other acquisition	198	30,622	Form 4
2026-01-15	Ranich Rebecca	director	Other acquisition	116	17,919	Form 4
2026-01-15	ANDERSON DAVID HUGO	director	Other acquisition	115	18,092	Form 4
2026-01-15	Ranich Rebecca	director	Other acquisition	115	18,092	Form 4
2026-01-15	Carroll David C.	director	Other acquisition	115	18,092	Form 4
2026-01-15	SKAINS THOMAS E	director	Other acquisition	115	18,092	Form 4
2026-01-15	Finch Steven C.	director	Other acquisition	115	18,092	Form 4
2026-01-15	SMITH DAVID F	director	Other acquisition	115	18,092	Form 4
2026-01-15	ANDERSON DAVID HUGO	director	Other acquisition	1	219	Form 4
2026-01-02	JAGGERS JOSEPH N	director	Award / grant	541	33,481	Form 4
2026-01-02	SKAINS THOMAS E	director	Award / grant	541	17,977	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2025-11-10	2025-10-24	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2025-11-10	2025-10-27	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2025-11-10	2025-10-24	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2025-09-11	2025-08-22	$100–250K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2025-09-11	2025-08-22	$100–250K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2025-08-13	2025-07-03	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2025-08-12	2025-07-03	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2025-07-07	2025-06-27	$100–250K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2024-12-16	2024-11-20	$100–250K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2024-12-16	2024-11-20	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2024-03-15	2024-02-23	$100–250K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2023-06-22	2023-05-25	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2023-06-22	2023-05-26	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2023-06-22	2023-05-26	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i