Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.49 · now $3.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NERV has typically landed between $2.26 and $5.69 — a range of −35.2% to +62.9% from the issuance price $3.49.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,043 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-07-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NERV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.49 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.39 (-2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.87–$3.91
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.26–$5.69
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-02-06 | −79.5% | −79.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-02-05 | −75.9% | −76.1% | +15.6% |
| 2020-05-26 | −75.7% | −76.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-28 | +395.1% | −3.0% | +395.1% |
| 2022-07-27 | +360.9% | +0.0% | +360.9% |
| 2022-07-29 | +320.9% | −3.7% | +391.4% |
3,043 overlapping windows · 2014-07-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Kaul Inderjit | director | Award / grant | 12,147 | 12,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ahlholm Frederick W | officer | Award / grant | 680,000 | 680,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | HASLER HANS PETER | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kaul Inderjit | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kupfer David | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Laghrissi-Thode Fouzia | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Luthringer Remy | director | Award / grant | 1,690,700 | 1,690,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | VAN HEEK G JAN | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | O'Connor James Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 350,800 | 350,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kaul Inderjit | director | Award / grant | 12,169 | 12,169 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | HASLER HANS PETER | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | VAN HEEK G JAN | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Ahlholm Frederick W | officer | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Race Geoff | officer | Award / grant | 1,500,000 | 1,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Luthringer Remy | director | Award / grant | 2,250,000 | 2,250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Laghrissi-Thode Fouzia | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Kaul Inderjit | director | Award / grant | 364,504 | 364,504 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Kupfer David | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Kaul Inderjit | director | Award / grant | 9,500 | 9,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Ahlholm Frederick W | officer | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | HASLER HANS PETER | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Kupfer David | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Laghrissi-Thode Fouzia | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Luthringer Remy | director | Award / grant | 105,000 | 105,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Race Geoff | officer | Award / grant | 95,000 | 95,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | VAN HEEK G JAN | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.