Issued 2026-09-25 at $121.43 · now $121.43 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NEM has typically landed between $103.30 and $143.45 — a range of −14.9% to +18.1% from the issuance price $121.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($121.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NEM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $121.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $121.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $124.5 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $114.67–$134.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $103.3–$143.45
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −47.5% | −47.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −44.8% | −44.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −42.7% | −43.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-19 | +70.6% | +0.0% | +79.1% |
| 2008-11-17 | +68.3% | −4.1% | +71.8% |
| 2008-11-14 | +65.6% | −7.5% | +65.6% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$219.33
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$189.50
- Analyst target · range $120.00–$175.00$140.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$121.43
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Viljoen Natascha | director | Sale | 3,882 @ $123.00 | $477K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 131,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $123.00 | $369K | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Tabolt Brian | officer | Sale | 11,445 @ $105.09 | $1.2M | −28.1% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Viljoen Natascha | director | Sale | 7,764 @ $104.00 | $807K | −5.4% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $93.45 | $280K | −6.9% of holding | +27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $92.38 | $277K | −6.5% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,315 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Viljoen Natascha | director | Sale | 3,882 @ $105.32 | $409K | −2.6% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $105.32 | $316K | −6.1% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Wexler Peter | officer | Sale | 13,378 @ $110.11 | $1.5M | −16.5% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,865 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $110.11 | $330K | −5.7% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,315 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Thornton David John | officer | Sale | 2,296 @ $110.11 | $253K | −9.0% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,163 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $113.09 | $339K | −5.4% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $108.00 | $324K | −5.1% of holding | +1.7% | +1.4% | 55,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fry David James | officer | Sale | 18,394 @ $111.45 | $2.1M | −51.8% of holding | −2.3% | −0.6% | 17,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Thornton David John | officer | Sale | 8,060 @ $120.78 | $973K | −22.8% of holding | −0.6% | −9.1% | 27,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Rodgers Mark C | officer | Sale | 1,361 @ $120.78 | $164K | −5.0% of holding | −0.6% | −9.1% | 25,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Rodgers Mark C | officer | Sale | 2,051 @ $131.14 | $269K | −7.0% of holding | −10.7% | −14.2% | 27,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Thornton David John | officer | Sale | 944 @ $131.14 | $124K | −2.6% of holding | −10.7% | −14.2% | 35,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodgers Mark C | officer | Sale | 4,443 @ $130.00 | $578K | −13.8% of holding | −12.9% | −14.1% | 27,807 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Rodgers Mark C | officer | Sale | 5,147 @ $125.00 | $643K | −13.8% of holding | −13.6% | −5.2% | 32,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,080 @ $92.36 | $192K | −6.0% of holding | +8.2% | +6.0% | 32,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Palmer Thomas Ronald | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $81.34 | $407K | −1.8% of holding | +10.1% | +33.7% | 279,923 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,080 @ $80.96 | $168K | −5.6% of holding | +10.1% | +33.7% | 34,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,080 @ $84.99 | $177K | −5.3% of holding | −5.9% | +34.7% | 36,869 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $74.59 | $155K | −5.1% of holding | +9.0% | +51.0% | 38,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Tabolt Brian | officer | Sale | 7,015 @ $68.02 | $477K | −17.7% of holding | +10.2% | +53.1% | 32,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $63.66 | $191K | −4.9% of holding | +18.2% | +68.9% | 58,736 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $63.66 | $132K | −4.8% of holding | +18.2% | +68.9% | 41,026 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $58.75 | $176K | −3.9% of holding | +3.2% | +62.4% | 74,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $58.75 | $122K | −4.6% of holding | +3.2% | +62.4% | 43,103 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $54.09 | $162K | −3.7% of holding | +3.1% | +50.8% | 77,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $54.09 | $112K | −4.4% of holding | +3.1% | +50.8% | 45,180 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $51.48 | $154K | −3.6% of holding | +2.3% | +38.7% | 80,526 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $51.48 | $107K | −4.2% of holding | +2.3% | +38.7% | 47,257 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $48.46 | $145K | −3.5% of holding | +7.1% | +59.6% | 83,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $48.46 | $101K | −4.3% of holding | +7.1% | +59.6% | 45,839 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Viljoen Natascha | director | Sale | 7,799 @ $43.71 | $341K | −5.0% of holding | +18.3% | +70.7% | 148,244 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $43.71 | $131K | −3.4% of holding | +18.3% | +70.7% | 86,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $43.71 | $91K | −4.2% of holding | +18.3% | +70.7% | 47,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Viljoen Natascha | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $42.89 | $386K | −6.2% of holding | +4.8% | +52.0% | 136,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $42.89 | $129K | −3.6% of holding | +4.8% | +52.0% | 79,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $42.89 | $89K | −4.0% of holding | +4.8% | +52.0% | 49,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Viljoen Natascha | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $40.00 | $360K | −5.8% of holding | +12.1% | +40.4% | 145,967 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $40.00 | $120K | −3.5% of holding | +12.1% | +40.4% | 82,596 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Brook Bruce R | director | Sale | 2,077 @ $40.00 | $83K | −3.8% of holding | +12.1% | +40.4% | 52,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Palmer Thomas Ronald | director | Sale | 13,000 @ $41.59 | $541K | −5.0% of holding | −3.4% | +35.8% | 245,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Viljoen Natascha | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $41.59 | $374K | −5.5% of holding | −3.4% | +35.8% | 154,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $41.59 | $125K | −3.4% of holding | −3.4% | +35.8% | 85,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-27 | Conger Harry M. IV | director | Purchase | 9,498 @ $42.15 | $400K | +190.0% of holding | −10.6% | +32.9% | 14,498 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-01 | Palmer Thomas Ronald | director | Sale | 13,000 @ $45.45 | $591K | −4.8% of holding | −13.4% | +21.8% | 258,469 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $45.45 | $136K | −3.3% of holding | −13.4% | +21.8% | 88,596 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-01 | Palmer Thomas Ronald | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $53.81 | $1.1M | −6.9% of holding | −15.3% | −4.6% | 271,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-01 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $53.81 | $161K | −3.2% of holding | −15.3% | −4.6% | 91,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-03 | Palmer Thomas Ronald | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $52.47 | $1.0M | −6.4% of holding | +0.5% | −19.0% | 291,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-03 | Toth Peter | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $52.47 | $157K | −3.1% of holding | +0.5% | −19.0% | 94,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-14 | Cage Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $49.15 | $49K | −4.5% of holding | +6.5% | −17.1% | 21,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-01 | Palmer Thomas Ronald | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $49.51 | $990K | −6.0% of holding | +3.9% | −22.8% | 311,469 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-01 | Palmer Thomas Ronald | director | Sale | 13,000 @ $42.13 | $548K | −3.8% of holding | +16.8% | −18.8% | 331,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
170 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Beaven Peter David | director | Award / grant | 1,092 | 1,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | BOYCE GREGORY H | director | Gift | 46,871 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | BOYCE GREGORY H | director | Gift | 46,871 | 46,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Wexler Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,291 | 70,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fry David James | officer | Award / grant | 3,691 | 20,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Tabolt Brian | officer | Award / grant | 7,275 | 40,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Wexler Peter | officer | Award / grant | 5,349 | 73,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Rodgers Mark C | officer | Award / grant | 6,954 | 32,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thornton David John | officer | Award / grant | 2,674 | 25,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Leyva Deborah | officer | Award / grant | 1,938 | 17,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | FitzGerald Emma | director | Award / grant | 1,645 | 16,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | BOYCE GREGORY H | director | Award / grant | 1,719 | 46,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Seaton David Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,645 | 5,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Conger Harry M. IV | director | Award / grant | 1,645 | 8,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Layman Sally-Anne | director | Award / grant | 1,645 | 11,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Quintana Julio M | director | Award / grant | 1,645 | 46,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Brook Bruce R | director | Award / grant | 1,645 | 34,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | CLARK MAURA J | director | Award / grant | 1,645 | 21,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Madero Garza Jose Manuel | director | Award / grant | 1,645 | 18,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Wexler Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,742 | 85,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Wexler Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,666 | 81,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Thornton David John | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,805 | 25,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Toth Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,161 | 58,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Cmil Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 893 | 69,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hardy Francois | officer | Withheld for tax | 745 | 37,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Thornton David John | officer | Withheld for tax | 599 | 36,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Tabolt Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 215 | 33,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Toth Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,188 | 56,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cmil Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,683 | 68,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hardy Francois | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,403 | 36,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Tabolt Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,212 | 33,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Thornton David John | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,129 | 35,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Thornton David John | officer | Award / grant | 1,361 | 36,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Toth Peter | officer | Award / grant | 2,653 | 59,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Tabolt Brian | officer | Award / grant | 490 | 33,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Fry David James | officer | Award / grant | 817 | 35,541 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hardy Francois | officer | Award / grant | 1,701 | 38,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cmil Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 2,041 | 70,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodgers Mark C | officer | Award / grant | 1,361 | 29,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Viljoen Natascha | director | Withheld for tax | 5,208 | 146,881 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-16 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Adam Smith | House | sale | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-08 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-04-05 | 2024-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-03-06 | 2024-02-13 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.