Issued 2026-09-16 at $80.37 · now $80.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NEE has typically landed between $71.38 and $90.26 — a range of −11.2% to +12.3% from the issuance price $80.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($80.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NEE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $80.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $80.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $80.85 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $76.96–$84.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $71.38–$90.26
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −34.2% | −34.2% | +2.2% |
| 2008-09-11 | −33.2% | −33.2% | +1.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −30.4% | −30.4% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +36.0% | +0.0% | +36.0% |
| 2008-10-15 | +28.2% | +0.0% | +28.2% |
| 2024-04-16 | +24.9% | +0.0% | +24.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$187.2B
market cap
$4.46
EPS (TTM)
20.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-27
next earnings
Revenue$27.5B
'20'25
Net income$6.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr24.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.75
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$127.11
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$100.68
- Analyst target · range $90.00–$116.00$98.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$80.37
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+1.1%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Mar
84%
+4.2%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.3%
n=19
May
68%
+2.0%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
32%
−2.2%
n=19
Oct
72%
+2.1%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Dec
72%
+1.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Daggs Nicole J | officer | Sale | 4,189 @ $93.00 | $390K | −19.2% of holding | −6.7% | −26.9% | 17,650 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Daggs Nicole J | officer | Sale | 745 @ $93.00 | $69K | −4.2% of holding | −6.7% | −26.9% | 16,905 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Sale | 9,340 @ $90.27 | $843K | −11.2% of holding | +2.4% | −21.7% | 73,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Sale | 5,612 @ $90.27 | $507K | −7.1% of holding | +2.4% | −21.7% | 73,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Sale | 4,720 @ $90.27 | $426K | −6.0% of holding | +2.4% | −21.7% | 73,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | May James Michael | officer | Sale | 4,672 @ $90.27 | $422K | −13.8% of holding | +2.4% | −21.7% | 29,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Lemasney Mark | officer | Sale | 3,845 @ $90.27 | $347K | −29.9% of holding | +2.4% | −21.7% | 8,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | May James Michael | officer | Sale | 2,489 @ $90.27 | $225K | −8.5% of holding | +2.4% | −21.7% | 26,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Reagan Ronald R | officer | Sale | 5,079 @ $95.00 | $483K | −31.7% of holding | +1.9% | −18.7% | 10,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | KETCHUM JOHN W | director | Sale | 75,068 @ $89.34 | $6.7M | −19.7% of holding | +5.7% | −14.5% | 305,933 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | KETCHUM JOHN W | director | Sale | 24,535 @ $89.34 | $2.2M | −7.4% of holding | +5.7% | −14.5% | 305,933 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sieving Charles E | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $90.00 | $2.7M | −15.2% of holding | +3.9% | −17.2% | 167,481 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Reagan Ronald R | officer | Sale | 12,620 @ $90.00 | $1.1M | −56.7% of holding | +3.9% | −17.2% | 9,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Reagan Ronald R | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $90.00 | $540K | −38.4% of holding | +3.9% | −17.2% | 9,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Reagan Ronald R | officer | Sale | 10,826 @ $85.00 | $920K | −40.9% of holding | +11.5% | −0.8% | 15,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Reagan Ronald R | officer | Sale | 12,129 @ $81.25 | $985K | −31.4% of holding | −0.4% | −2.6% | 26,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Pimentel Armando Jr | officer | Sale | 145,140 @ $83.91 | $12.2M | −47.1% of holding | −6.6% | −7.7% | 162,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Sieving Charles E | officer | Sale | 11,336 @ $80.00 | $907K | −6.3% of holding | +0.0% | +19.5% | 167,481 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Lemasney Mark | officer | Sale | 808 @ $77.90 | $63K | −8.7% of holding | +2.1% | +21.3% | 8,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Lemasney Mark | officer | Sale | 846 @ $74.90 | $63K | −8.4% of holding | +10.2% | +27.2% | 9,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Lemasney Mark | officer | Sale | 846 @ $71.90 | $61K | −7.7% of holding | +16.5% | +29.0% | 10,113 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Dunne Michael | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $70.79 | $708K | −13.9% of holding | +15.8% | +28.0% | 62,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Coffey Robert | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $71.84 | $539K | −22.0% of holding | +3.6% | +14.1% | 26,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | May James Michael | officer | Sale | 2,177 @ $77.50 | $169K | −7.3% of holding | −3.2% | +0.1% | 27,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Sieving Charles E | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $75.00 | $1.4M | −9.1% of holding | −4.0% | −0.1% | 178,817 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Sieving Charles E | officer | Sale | 23,684 @ $70.00 | $1.7M | −10.7% of holding | −2.5% | +1.7% | 196,817 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | May James Michael | officer | Sale | 2,383 @ $68.09 | $162K | −8.0% of holding | +11.0% | +8.3% | 27,427 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | CAMAREN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Award / grant | 271 | 34,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Arnaboldi Nicole S | director | Award / grant | 67 | 8,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | PORGES DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 52 | 6,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Rubio Alex | officer | Withheld for tax | 85 | 30,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Arnaboldi Nicole S | director | Award / grant | 409 | 8,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | CAMAREN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Award / grant | 273 | 34,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Arnaboldi Nicole S | director | Award / grant | 63 | 8,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | PORGES DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 52 | 6,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Bolster Brian W | director | Withheld for tax | 1,251 | 44,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Arnaboldi Nicole S | director | Award / grant | 392 | 8,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Bolster Brian W | director | Withheld for tax | 428 | 46,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | May James Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 316 | 26,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Gough William John | officer | Withheld for tax | 93 | 10,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | CAMAREN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Award / grant | 218 | 34,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Arnaboldi Nicole S | director | Award / grant | 47 | 7,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | PORGES DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 41 | 6,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Option exercise | 9,340 | 83,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Option exercise | 4,720 | 78,577 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Option exercise | 5,612 | 79,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Option exercise | 9,340 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Option exercise | 5,612 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Option exercise | 4,720 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pimentel Armando Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,373 | 171,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Dunne Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 4,388 | 70,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Sieving Charles E | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,035 | 190,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | KETCHUM JOHN W | director | Withheld for tax | 1,965 | 400,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,544 | 73,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Coffey Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,518 | 38,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | May James Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,044 | 33,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Bolster Brian W | director | Withheld for tax | 912 | 46,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Daggs Nicole J | officer | Withheld for tax | 623 | 21,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Reagan Ronald R | officer | Withheld for tax | 568 | 16,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Lemasney Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 206 | 12,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gough William John | officer | Withheld for tax | 101 | 10,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | KETCHUM JOHN W | director | Withheld for tax | 60,092 | 402,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Sieving Charles E | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,595 | 192,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Crews Terrell Kirk II | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,446 | 75,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Coffey Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,623 | 40,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Dunne Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 5,485 | 75,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Reagan Ronald R | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,661 | 16,607 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $50–100K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-08 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Rick Larsen | House | purchase | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-01-15 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-11-01 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2025-12-09 | 2025-11-05 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.