Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.12 · now $13.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NDLS has typically landed between $9.41 and $19.17 — a range of −28.3% to +46.1% from the issuance price $13.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,303 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-06-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NDLS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.44 (-5.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.83–$14.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.41–$19.17
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-04 | −55.9% | −55.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −55.7% | −55.9% | +0.2% |
| 2020-02-19 | −55.2% | −55.2% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-12-31 | +183.4% | +0.0% | +183.4% |
| 2025-01-02 | +180.9% | +0.0% | +180.9% |
| 2025-01-14 | +161.4% | +0.0% | +161.4% |
3,303 overlapping windows · 2013-06-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Christina Joseph | director | Withheld for tax | 1,903 | 80,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Hynes Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 544 | 32,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hynes Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 853 | 20,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Lockhart Kathryn Rae | officer | Withheld for tax | 416 | 8,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kline Corey | officer | Withheld for tax | 416 | 10,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | JONES JEFFREY W | director | Award / grant | 10,655 | 40,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MADSEN ANDREW H | director | Award / grant | 7,103 | 37,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Schreiber Elisa | director | Award / grant | 7,103 | 22,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mill Road Capital III, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 7,103 | 21,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Christina Joseph | director | Award / grant | 32,359 | 82,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kline Corey | officer | Award / grant | 4,735 | 14,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Lockhart Kathryn Rae | officer | Award / grant | 4,735 | 13,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Taylor Shawn A | director | Award / grant | 7,103 | 22,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Peakes Britain | director | Award / grant | 7,103 | 14,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hynes Michael | officer | Award / grant | 12,628 | 33,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Lockhart Kathryn Rae | officer | Withheld for tax | 192 | 9,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kline Corey | officer | Withheld for tax | 192 | 10,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | MADSEN ANDREW H | director | Withheld for tax | 2,111 | 30,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Christina Joseph | director | Withheld for tax | 1,483 | 49,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-31 | Christina Joseph | director | Award / grant | 250,000 | 410,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-24 | Hynes Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,323 | 171,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | WEST THOMAS B | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,297 | 188,959 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Hynes Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,908 | 112,240 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Lockhart Kathryn Rae | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,278 | 50,366 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Kline Corey | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,278 | 61,826 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Kline Corey | officer | Award / grant | 24,000 | 85,826 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Taylor Shawn A | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 121,078 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Mill Road Capital III, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 36,000 | 114,982 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Lockhart Kathryn Rae | officer | Award / grant | 24,000 | 74,366 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Egan Mary | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 132,439 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | MADSEN ANDREW H | director | Award / grant | 166,500 | 493,167 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | JONES JEFFREY W | director | Award / grant | 54,000 | 240,407 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Peakes Britain | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 61,113 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Kennedy Stephen B | other | Award / grant | 24,000 | 74,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Hartnett Robert M. | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 220,085 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Schreiber Elisa | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 120,647 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Hynes Michael | officer | Award / grant | 64,000 | 176,240 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Davis Scott Gregory | officer | Award / grant | 24,000 | 118,595 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | WEST THOMAS B | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,791 | 192,256 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Kline Corey | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,883 | 63,104 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.