Issued 2026-09-16 at $88.76 · now $88.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NDAQ has typically landed between $79.64 and $98.56 — a range of −10.3% to +11.0% from the issuance price $88.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($88.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NDAQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $88.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $88.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.89 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.83–$93.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.64–$98.56
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −48.8% | −48.8% | +8.3% |
| 2008-10-21 | −48.5% | −48.5% | +0.6% |
| 2008-10-23 | −44.1% | −47.8% | +10.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +49.9% | +0.0% | +66.8% |
| 2008-11-19 | +43.8% | −7.7% | +54.0% |
| 2020-03-23 | +43.6% | +0.0% | +52.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$59.19
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$56.19
- Analyst target · range $110.00–$120.00$113.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$88.76
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 1,125 @ $94.22 | $106K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 101,198 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Sale | 3,226 @ $96.16 | $310K | −1.6% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 201,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 2,250 @ $94.75 | $213K | −2.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $95.55 | $573K | −4.7% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,293 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 1,556 @ $95.07 | $148K | −2.2% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Sale | 11,010 @ $96.35 | $1.1M | −5.1% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 205,001 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Sale | 11,010 @ $93.96 | $1.0M | −4.8% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Sale | 13,000 @ $92.61 | $1.2M | −9.2% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,293 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Sale | 6,777 @ $92.53 | $627K | −2.9% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 227,021 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $80.00 | $240K | −4.2% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | INVESTOR AB | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 56,782 @ $85.98 | $4.9M | +0.1% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,439,208 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $86.91 | $261K | −4.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,944 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Sale | 5,093 @ $92.62 | $472K | −2.1% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 233,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Sale | 7,710 @ $90.82 | $700K | −5.2% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,035 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Tal Cohen | officer | Sale | 15,518 @ $90.75 | $1.4M | −6.7% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Daly Michelle Lynn | officer | Sale | 1,194 @ $88.82 | $106K | −10.5% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,218 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Daly Michelle Lynn | officer | Sale | 129 @ $88.85 | $11K | −1.3% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,089 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Sale | 113,611 @ $85.44 | $9.7M | −5.5% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,965,751 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Sale | 92,840 @ $90.08 | $8.4M | −4.3% of holding | −0.3% | −4.9% | 2,079,323 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $87.24 | $523K | −7.8% of holding | +1.7% | +0.4% | 70,860 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Daly Michelle Lynn | officer | Sale | 4,339 @ $81.34 | $353K | −29.0% of holding | +11.4% | +8.6% | 10,643 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Torgeby Johan | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $79.86 | $958K | +41.7% of holding | +9.9% | +8.3% | 40,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | INVESTOR AB | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200,000 @ $79.18 | $15.8M | +0.3% of holding | +10.8% | +8.5% | 58,382,426 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $96.91 | $29.1M | −13.5% of holding | −6.5% | −14.2% | 1,924,903 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Zecca John | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $100.01 | $450K | −3.5% of holding | −13.0% | −21.7% | 125,674 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $96.39 | $28.9M | −13.5% of holding | −10.2% | −20.0% | 1,924,903 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 4,633 @ $90.57 | $420K | −7.4% of holding | +8.5% | −13.8% | 57,670 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 2,105 @ $90.57 | $191K | −2.5% of holding | +8.5% | −13.8% | 82,869 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 2,105 @ $85.40 | $180K | −2.4% of holding | +2.2% | −4.1% | 84,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 2,105 @ $88.22 | $186K | −2.3% of holding | −3.1% | +1.6% | 88,341 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 2,105 @ $93.22 | $196K | −2.3% of holding | −11.6% | −11.8% | 90,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | BEGLEY CHARLENE T | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $96.60 | $290K | −6.1% of holding | −5.2% | −18.8% | 46,001 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 2,105 @ $95.49 | $201K | −2.2% of holding | −4.6% | −10.2% | 92,551 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Daly Michelle Lynn | officer | Sale | 8,691 @ $93.45 | $812K | −49.5% of holding | −1.4% | −4.5% | 8,879 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Sale | 11,508 @ $88.87 | $1.0M | −9.4% of holding | +6.1% | −1.4% | 111,035 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 2,105 @ $89.17 | $188K | −2.2% of holding | +5.8% | −0.8% | 94,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $85.22 | $341K | −1.9% of holding | +0.8% | −8.8% | 207,405 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 2,104 @ $85.00 | $179K | −2.1% of holding | +0.8% | −8.8% | 96,438 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 1,053 @ $83.28 | $88K | −1.1% of holding | +1.9% | −8.4% | 98,542 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $83.27 | $416K | −2.3% of holding | +2.9% | −6.7% | 211,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $82.63 | $248K | −1.4% of holding | +2.9% | −6.7% | 216,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 1,053 @ $81.52 | $86K | −1.0% of holding | +4.3% | −8.2% | 99,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 657 @ $71.81 | $47K | −1.0% of holding | +3.8% | −3.7% | 61,980 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Sale | 2,308 @ $75.67 | $175K | −1.7% of holding | −0.5% | −7.0% | 134,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 1,132 @ $75.67 | $86K | −1.8% of holding | −0.5% | −7.0% | 63,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $75.71 | $151K | −3.3% of holding | +0.6% | −4.9% | 58,752 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Youngwood Sarah | officer | Sale | 14,959 @ $73.68 | $1.1M | −20.0% of holding | +3.1% | +7.8% | 59,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $82.78 | $290K | −5.4% of holding | −3.3% | +4.6% | 60,752 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Sale | 17,056 @ $79.79 | $1.4M | −11.5% of holding | +0.1% | +9.9% | 131,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Tal Cohen | officer | Sale | 8,955 @ $83.75 | $750K | −6.5% of holding | −5.5% | +10.7% | 127,940 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $81.56 | $285K | −5.9% of holding | −1.3% | +12.7% | 55,576 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 6,037 @ $80.88 | $488K | −6.5% of holding | −1.1% | +8.9% | 86,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Sale | 6,037 @ $80.87 | $488K | −6.1% of holding | −1.1% | +8.9% | 92,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
138 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Kazim Essa | director | Withheld for tax | 622 | 146,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Torgeby Johan | director | Withheld for tax | 300 | 43,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Torgeby Johan | director | Award / grant | 2,998 | 43,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SPLINTER MICHAEL R | director | Award / grant | 5,246 | 217,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Townes-Whitley Toni | director | Award / grant | 2,998 | 23,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | ZOLLAR ALFRED W | director | Award / grant | 4,497 | 58,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | YABUKI JEFFERY W | director | Award / grant | 4,612 | 22,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SPAHT PAUL HOLDEN JR. | director | Award / grant | 2,998 | 13,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KLOET THOMAS A | director | Award / grant | 4,554 | 36,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | BEGLEY CHARLENE T | director | Award / grant | 2,998 | 48,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kazim Essa | director | Award / grant | 4,151 | 147,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | ARNOLDI MELISSA | director | Award / grant | 4,324 | 55,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Koch Kathryn A. | director | Award / grant | 3,171 | 10,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Withheld for tax | 8,075 | 1,983,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,565 | 238,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tal Cohen | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,565 | 230,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,499 | 148,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,017 | 104,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Withheld for tax | 813 | 74,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Zecca John | officer | Withheld for tax | 780 | 153,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Daly Michelle Lynn | officer | Withheld for tax | 424 | 11,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Option exercise | 113,611 | 2,079,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Withheld for tax | 13,739 | 1,991,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tal Cohen | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,141 | 232,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,308 | 240,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,761 | 150,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,332 | 105,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,149 | 75,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Zecca John | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,097 | 154,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Daly Michelle Lynn | officer | Withheld for tax | 832 | 11,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Daly Michelle Lynn | officer | Award / grant | 2,025 | 12,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Youngwood Sarah | officer | Award / grant | 15,267 | 74,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Zecca John | officer | Award / grant | 7,339 | 156,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Smith Bryan Everard | officer | Award / grant | 7,046 | 77,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Griggs PC Nelson | officer | Award / grant | 11,743 | 243,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SKULE JEREMY | officer | Award / grant | 7,633 | 107,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Peterson Bradley J | officer | Award / grant | 8,103 | 153,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tal Cohen | officer | Award / grant | 15,267 | 243,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Option exercise | 113,611 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FRIEDMAN ADENA T | director | Award / grant | 39,929 | 2,005,680 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-22 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-04-06 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-04-06 | 2026-03-18 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-04-06 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.