NDAQNasdaq, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Data & Stock Exchangesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $88.76 · now $88.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NDAQ has typically landed between $79.64 and $98.56 — a range of −10.3% to +11.0% from the issuance price $88.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($88.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NDAQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $88.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$79.64worst · -10.3%$98.56best · +11.0%
  • now $88.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.89 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.83$93.96
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.64$98.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-22−48.8%−48.8%+8.3%
2008-10-21−48.5%−48.5%+0.6%
2008-10-23−44.1%−47.8%+10.5%
3 best
2008-11-20+49.9%+0.0%+66.8%
2008-11-19+43.8%−7.7%+54.0%
2020-03-23+43.6%+0.0%+52.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$51.5B
market cap
$3.43
EPS (TTM)
26.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$8.2B
'20'25
Net income$1.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr21.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr14.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.81
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $88.76$51.09$125.10
  • DCF (intrinsic)$59.19
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$56.19
  • Analyst target · range $110.00$120.00$113.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$88.76

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Mar
42%
+0.0%
n=19
Apr
42%
−0.2%
n=19
May
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
53%
−1.1%
n=19
Jul
79%
+5.8%
n=19
Aug
74%
+2.0%
n=19
Sep
32%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
72%
+2.2%
n=18
Nov
89%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$100$772026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $106K — SKULE JEREMY2026-08-10: 2 insider sales, $523K — Griggs PC Nelson, SKULE JEREMY2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $573K — Peterson Bradley J2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $148K — Smith Bryan Everard2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Griggs PC Nelson2026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Griggs PC Nelson2026-07-24: 2 insider sales, $1.8M — Peterson Bradley J, Griggs PC Nelson2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $240K — Smith Bryan Everard2026-06-11: 1 insider purchase, $4.9M — INVESTOR AB2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $261K — Smith Bryan Everard2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $472K — Griggs PC Nelson2026-04-28: 1 insider sale, $700K — Peterson Bradley J2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Tal Cohen2026-04-24: 2 insider sales, $118K — Daly Michelle Lynn …2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $9.7M — FRIEDMAN ADENA T2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $8.4M — FRIEDMAN ADENA T2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $523K — Smith Bryan Everard2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $353K — Daly Michelle Lynn2026-02-17: 1 insider purchase, $958K — Torgeby Johan2026-02-13: 1 insider purchase, $15.8M — INVESTOR AB2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $29.1M — FRIEDMAN ADENA T2026-01-06: 1 insider sale, $450K — Zecca John2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $28.9M — FRIEDMAN ADENA T2025-12-01: 2 insider sales, $610K — Smith Bryan Everard, SKULE JEREMY2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $180K — SKULE JEREMY2025-10-01: 1 insider sale, $186K — SKULE JEREMY2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $196K — SKULE JEREMY2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $491K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $196K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $186K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $180K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $610K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $29.4M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $16.8M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $29.4M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $8.9M2026-04: 5 open-market sales, $11.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $472K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $4.9M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $261K2026-07: 5 open-market sales, $4.2M2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $106K↑ buys↓ salesofficer SKULE JEREMY — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Griggs PC Nelson — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer SKULE JEREMY — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Peterson Bradley J — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Smith Bryan Everard — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Griggs PC Nelson — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Griggs PC Nelson — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Peterson Bradley J — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Griggs PC Nelson — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Smith Bryan Everard — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner INVESTOR AB — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Smith Bryan Everard — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Griggs PC Nelson — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Peterson Bradley J — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Tal Cohen — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Daly Michelle Lynn — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Daly Michelle Lynn — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN ADENA T — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN ADENA T — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Smith Bryan Everard — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Daly Michelle Lynn — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Torgeby Johan — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner INVESTOR AB — Purchase on 2026-02-13, filed same daydirector FRIEDMAN ADENA T — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zecca John — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN ADENA T — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Smith Bryan Everard — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer SKULE JEREMY — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer SKULE JEREMY — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer SKULE JEREMY — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer SKULE JEREMY — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10SKULE JEREMYofficerSale1,125 @ $94.22$106K−1.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open101,198Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-10Griggs PC NelsonofficerSale3,226 @ $96.16$310K−1.6% of holding−0.4%not yet — horizon still open201,775Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10SKULE JEREMYofficerSale2,250 @ $94.75$213K−2.2% of holding−0.4%not yet — horizon still open102,323Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07Peterson Bradley JofficerSale6,000 @ $95.55$573K−4.7% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open122,293Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-03Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale1,556 @ $95.07$148K−2.2% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open67,647Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-29Griggs PC NelsonofficerSale11,010 @ $96.35$1.1M−5.1% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open205,001Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27Griggs PC NelsonofficerSale11,010 @ $93.96$1.0M−4.8% of holding+1.5%not yet — horizon still open216,011Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-24Peterson Bradley JofficerSale13,000 @ $92.61$1.2M−9.2% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open128,293Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-24Griggs PC NelsonofficerSale6,777 @ $92.53$627K−2.9% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open227,021Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-01Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale3,000 @ $80.00$240K−4.2% of holding+13.7%not yet — horizon still open69,203Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11INVESTOR ABtenPercentOwnerPurchase56,782 @ $85.98$4.9M+0.1% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open58,439,208Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale3,000 @ $86.91$261K−4.0% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open71,944Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-18Griggs PC NelsonofficerSale5,093 @ $92.62$472K−2.1% of holding−10.0%not yet — horizon still open233,798Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28Peterson Bradley JofficerSale7,710 @ $90.82$700K−5.2% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open141,035Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27Tal CohenofficerSale15,518 @ $90.75$1.4M−6.7% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open215,208Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-24Daly Michelle LynnofficerSale1,194 @ $88.82$106K−10.5% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open10,218Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24Daly Michelle LynnofficerSale129 @ $88.85$11K−1.3% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open10,089Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-01FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorSale113,611 @ $85.44$9.7M−5.5% of holding−2.7%not yet — horizon still open1,965,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorSale92,840 @ $90.08$8.4M−4.3% of holding−0.3%−4.9%2,079,323Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-02Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale6,000 @ $87.24$523K−7.8% of holding+1.7%+0.4%70,860Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-19Daly Michelle LynnofficerSale4,339 @ $81.34$353K−29.0% of holding+11.4%+8.6%10,643Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-17Torgeby JohandirectorPurchase12,000 @ $79.86$958K+41.7% of holding+9.9%+8.3%40,797Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-13INVESTOR ABtenPercentOwnerPurchase200,000 @ $79.18$15.8M+0.3% of holding+10.8%+8.5%58,382,426Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorSale300,000 @ $96.91$29.1M−13.5% of holding−6.5%−14.2%1,924,903Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Zecca JohnofficerSale4,500 @ $100.01$450K−3.5% of holding−13.0%−21.7%125,674Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-02FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorSale300,000 @ $96.39$28.9M−13.5% of holding−10.2%−20.0%1,924,903Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-01Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale4,633 @ $90.57$420K−7.4% of holding+8.5%−13.8%57,670Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01SKULE JEREMYofficerSale2,105 @ $90.57$191K−2.5% of holding+8.5%−13.8%82,869Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-03SKULE JEREMYofficerSale2,105 @ $85.40$180K−2.4% of holding+2.2%−4.1%84,974Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01SKULE JEREMYofficerSale2,105 @ $88.22$186K−2.3% of holding−3.1%+1.6%88,341Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02SKULE JEREMYofficerSale2,105 @ $93.22$196K−2.3% of holding−11.6%−11.8%90,446Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04BEGLEY CHARLENE TdirectorSale3,000 @ $96.60$290K−6.1% of holding−5.2%−18.8%46,001Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-01SKULE JEREMYofficerSale2,105 @ $95.49$201K−2.2% of holding−4.6%−10.2%92,551Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-25Daly Michelle LynnofficerSale8,691 @ $93.45$812K−49.5% of holding−1.4%−4.5%8,879Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-02Peterson Bradley JofficerSale11,508 @ $88.87$1.0M−9.4% of holding+6.1%−1.4%111,035Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-01SKULE JEREMYofficerSale2,105 @ $89.17$188K−2.2% of holding+5.8%−0.8%94,656Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06Griggs PC NelsonofficerSale4,000 @ $85.22$341K−1.9% of holding+0.8%−8.8%207,405Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-06SKULE JEREMYofficerSale2,104 @ $85.00$179K−2.1% of holding+0.8%−8.8%96,438Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-02SKULE JEREMYofficerSale1,053 @ $83.28$88K−1.1% of holding+1.9%−8.4%98,542Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-27Griggs PC NelsonofficerSale5,000 @ $83.27$416K−2.3% of holding+2.9%−6.7%211,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-27Griggs PC NelsonofficerSale3,000 @ $82.63$248K−1.4% of holding+2.9%−6.7%216,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12SKULE JEREMYofficerSale1,053 @ $81.52$86K−1.0% of holding+4.3%−8.2%99,595Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-04Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale657 @ $71.81$47K−1.0% of holding+3.8%−3.7%61,980Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-02Peterson Bradley JofficerSale2,308 @ $75.67$175K−1.7% of holding−0.5%−7.0%134,772Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-02Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale1,132 @ $75.67$86K−1.8% of holding−0.5%−7.0%63,450Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale2,000 @ $75.71$151K−3.3% of holding+0.6%−4.9%58,752Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Youngwood SarahofficerSale14,959 @ $73.68$1.1M−20.0% of holding+3.1%+7.8%59,694Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale3,500 @ $82.78$290K−5.4% of holding−3.3%+4.6%60,752Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Peterson Bradley JofficerSale17,056 @ $79.79$1.4M−11.5% of holding+0.1%+9.9%131,075Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Tal CohenofficerSale8,955 @ $83.75$750K−6.5% of holding−5.5%+10.7%127,940Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-03Smith Bryan EverardofficerSale3,500 @ $81.56$285K−5.9% of holding−1.3%+12.7%55,576Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09SKULE JEREMYofficerSale6,037 @ $80.88$488K−6.5% of holding−1.1%+8.9%86,305Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09SKULE JEREMYofficerSale6,037 @ $80.87$488K−6.1% of holding−1.1%+8.9%92,342Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

138 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-11Kazim EssadirectorWithheld for tax622146,917Form 4
2026-06-11Torgeby JohandirectorWithheld for tax30043,495Form 4
2026-06-10Torgeby JohandirectorAward / grant2,99843,795Form 4
2026-06-10SPLINTER MICHAEL RdirectorAward / grant5,246217,988Form 4
2026-06-10Townes-Whitley TonidirectorAward / grant2,99823,469Form 4
2026-06-10ZOLLAR ALFRED WdirectorAward / grant4,49758,281Form 4
2026-06-10YABUKI JEFFERY WdirectorAward / grant4,61222,959Form 4
2026-06-10SPAHT PAUL HOLDEN JR.directorAward / grant2,99813,399Form 4
2026-06-10KLOET THOMAS AdirectorAward / grant4,55436,559Form 4
2026-06-10BEGLEY CHARLENE TdirectorAward / grant2,99848,999Form 4
2026-06-10Kazim EssadirectorAward / grant4,151147,539Form 4
2026-06-10ARNOLDI MELISSAdirectorAward / grant4,32455,515Form 4
2026-06-10Koch Kathryn A.directorAward / grant3,17110,743Form 4
2026-04-03FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorWithheld for tax8,0751,983,866Form 4
2026-04-03Griggs PC NelsonofficerWithheld for tax1,565238,891Form 4
2026-04-03Tal CohenofficerWithheld for tax1,565230,726Form 4
2026-04-03Peterson Bradley JofficerWithheld for tax1,499148,745Form 4
2026-04-03SKULE JEREMYofficerWithheld for tax1,017104,573Form 4
2026-04-03Smith Bryan EverardofficerWithheld for tax81374,944Form 4
2026-04-03Zecca JohnofficerWithheld for tax780153,334Form 4
2026-04-03Daly Michelle LynnofficerWithheld for tax42411,412Form 4
2026-04-01FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorOption exercise113,6112,079,362Form 4
2026-04-01FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorWithheld for tax13,7391,991,941Form 4
2026-04-01Tal CohenofficerWithheld for tax11,141232,291Form 4
2026-04-01Griggs PC NelsonofficerWithheld for tax3,308240,456Form 4
2026-04-01Peterson Bradley JofficerWithheld for tax2,761150,244Form 4
2026-04-01SKULE JEREMYofficerWithheld for tax2,332105,590Form 4
2026-04-01Smith Bryan EverardofficerWithheld for tax2,14975,757Form 4
2026-04-01Zecca JohnofficerWithheld for tax2,097154,114Form 4
2026-04-01Daly Michelle LynnofficerWithheld for tax83211,836Form 4
2026-04-01Daly Michelle LynnofficerAward / grant2,02512,668Form 4
2026-04-01Youngwood SarahofficerAward / grant15,26774,558Form 4
2026-04-01Zecca JohnofficerAward / grant7,339156,211Form 4
2026-04-01Smith Bryan EverardofficerAward / grant7,04677,906Form 4
2026-04-01Griggs PC NelsonofficerAward / grant11,743243,764Form 4
2026-04-01SKULE JEREMYofficerAward / grant7,633107,922Form 4
2026-04-01Peterson Bradley JofficerAward / grant8,103153,005Form 4
2026-04-01Tal CohenofficerAward / grant15,267243,432Form 4
2026-04-01FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorOption exercise113,6110Form 4
2026-04-01FRIEDMAN ADENA TdirectorAward / grant39,9292,005,680Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-22$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-05-062026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-10$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-18$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-31$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.