NCSM · TickerCove

NCSMNCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Servicesas of 2026-09-10

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-10 at $53.35 · now $53.35 (2026-08-31, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-10 close, NCSM has typically landed between $42.85 and $71.36 — a range of −19.7% to +33.8% from the issuance price $53.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,313 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-28 – 2026-07-31 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 54.0% (90% CI 51.8–56.2%, ≈1,443 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-10 issuance close ($53.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-09, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$53.35 · 36% of range

$35.14 low$85.2 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-08-31 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,443 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

54.0%

90% CI 51.8%–56.2%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.0%

typical move · IQR 19.4%

−19.7%worst (p90)+33.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NCSM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-10 close of $53.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $53.35 (+0.0%)
typical $53.35 (+0.0%)
middle 50% $48.18–$58.52
90% range $42.85–$71.36

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,313 windows spanning 2017-04-28 to 2026-08-31. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-03-05	−69.2%	−69.2%	+0.0%
2020-03-03	−66.8%	−66.8%	+0.0%
2020-03-04	−62.8%	−64.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-02-24	+93.3%	+0.0%	+93.3%
2020-12-14	+88.5%	+0.0%	+88.5%
2026-02-23	+85.0%	−4.0%	+85.0%

2,313 overlapping windows · 2017-04-28 – 2026-08-31 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

78%

+8.9%

n=9

Feb

22%

−4.1%

n=9

Mar

56%

+4.4%

n=9

Apr

33%

−5.4%

n=9

May

30%

−7.2%

n=10

Jun

50%

+1.8%

n=10

Jul

60%

+2.4%

n=10

Aug

50%

−2.7%

n=10

Sep

44%

+3.5%

n=9

Oct

44%

−1.8%

n=9

Nov

22%

−2.7%

n=9

Dec

44%

+3.1%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.	director	Sale	1,478,426	—	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.	director	Sale	1,478,426	—	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.	director	Sale	1,478,426	—	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.	director	Sale	1,478,426	—	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.	director	Sale	1,478,426	—	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.	director	Sale	1,478,426	—	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.	director	Sale	1,478,426	—	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.	director	Sale	1,478,426	—	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-05	Nipper Robert	director	Sale	1,000 @ $40.00	$40K	−2.9% of holding	−0.0%	−5.5%	33,455	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03	Nipper Robert	director	Sale	3,147 @ $40.00	$126K	−3.4% of holding	−11.8%	−13.5%	88,596	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05	Mitchell Valerie A	director	Sale	1,969 @ $30.16	$59K	−7.7% of holding	+29.8%	+8.4%	23,551	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-04	Mitchell Valerie A	director	Sale	548 @ $30.00	$16K	−2.1% of holding	+42.0%	+23.0%	25,520	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13	Mitchell Valerie A	director	Sale	1,187 @ $28.00	$33K	−4.4% of holding	−6.5%	+52.3%	26,068	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12	Mitchell Valerie A	director	Sale	357 @ $29.02	$10K	−1.3% of holding	−3.1%	+52.6%	27,255	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

259 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Filing
2026-09-01	Grewal Gurinder	director	Disposition	20,919	Form 4
2026-09-01	MCSHANE MICHAEL	director	Disposition	48,778	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hummer Ryan	director	Disposition	14,479	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hummer Ryan	director	Disposition	11,474	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	27,241	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	3,952	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	2,174	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	2,498	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	6,525	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	5,047	Form 4
2026-09-01	MORRISON MICHAEL L	officer	Disposition	11,049	Form 4
2026-09-01	MORRISON MICHAEL L	officer	Disposition	3,898	Form 4
2026-09-01	MORRISON MICHAEL L	officer	Disposition	2,145	Form 4
2026-09-01	MORRISON MICHAEL L	officer	Disposition	2,463	Form 4
2026-09-01	MORRISON MICHAEL L	officer	Disposition	11,696	Form 4
2026-09-01	MORRISON MICHAEL L	officer	Disposition	6,435	Form 4
2026-09-01	WILLIAMS DEWAYNE	officer	Disposition	2,653	Form 4
2026-09-01	WILLIAMS DEWAYNE	officer	Disposition	1,180	Form 4
2026-09-01	WILLIAMS DEWAYNE	officer	Disposition	1,367	Form 4
2026-09-01	LEV ORI	officer	Disposition	1,689	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	5,047	Form 4
2026-09-01	RALLS W MATT	director	Disposition	31,065	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	6,525	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	11,858	Form 4
2026-09-01	Nipper Robert	director	Disposition	88,596	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	2,498	Form 4
2026-09-01	Nipper Robert	director	Disposition	36,676	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	3,952	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	2,174	Form 4
2026-09-01	Nipper Robert	director	Disposition	88,596	Form 4
2026-09-01	Nipper Robert	director	Disposition	36,676	Form 4
2026-09-01	MORRISON MICHAEL L	officer	Disposition	4,978	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	11,858	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hummer Ryan	director	Disposition	23,392	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hummer Ryan	director	Disposition	5,679	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hummer Ryan	director	Disposition	4,826	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hummer Ryan	director	Disposition	7,797	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hummer Ryan	director	Disposition	48,389	Form 4
2026-09-01	Willems Tim	officer	Disposition	27,241	Form 4
2026-09-01	LEV ORI	officer	Disposition	632	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

22d remaining

2026-09-1125% elapsed2026-10-09

Logged immutably 2026-09-11; scored automatically on 2026-10-09 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i