Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.70 · now $21.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NCNO has typically landed between $16.92 and $26.38 — a range of −22.0% to +21.6% from the issuance price $21.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,531 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-07-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NCNO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.7 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.41 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.56–$23.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.92–$26.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,531 windows spanning 2020-07-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −39.3% | −39.3% | +1.5% |
| 2022-04-11 | −39.2% | −39.2% | +2.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | −36.9% | −36.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-06-14 | +31.4% | +0.0% | +32.0% |
| 2024-10-09 | +31.0% | +0.0% | +31.0% |
| 2023-06-09 | +30.7% | +0.0% | +32.0% |
1,531 overlapping windows · 2020-07-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−5.2%
n=6
Feb
17%
−7.8%
n=6
Mar
17%
−2.7%
n=6
Apr
17%
−5.3%
n=6
May
50%
+0.3%
n=6
Jun
67%
+2.2%
n=6
Jul
83%
+5.8%
n=6
Aug
57%
+6.2%
n=7
Sep
43%
−1.3%
n=7
Oct
33%
−2.0%
n=6
Nov
33%
−2.1%
n=6
Dec
50%
−2.7%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 8,064 @ $23.66 | $191K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,231,080 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 690 @ $22.70 | $16K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,763 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 11,815 @ $19.53 | $231K | −1.0% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,231,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 1,536 @ $19.53 | $30K | −3.1% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,453 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 28,675 @ $19.22 | $551K | −2.3% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,234,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Orenstein Gregory | officer | Sale | 11,780 @ $19.22 | $226K | −1.7% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 690,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Rieger April | officer | Sale | 7,852 @ $19.22 | $151K | −2.0% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,749 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Naude Pierre | director | Sale | 4,677 @ $19.22 | $90K | −0.4% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,116,707 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 887 @ $19.22 | $17K | −1.7% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 8,064 @ $17.47 | $141K | −0.6% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,262,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 8,064 @ $16.26 | $131K | −0.6% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,262,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 16,589 @ $18.04 | $299K | −1.3% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,262,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 3,695 @ $18.04 | $67K | −6.8% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,876 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Naude Pierre | director | Sale | 35,650 @ $18.02 | $642K | −3.1% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,108,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 22,073 @ $18.02 | $398K | −1.7% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,271,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Orenstein Gregory | officer | Sale | 14,650 @ $18.02 | $264K | −2.0% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 702,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Rieger April | officer | Sale | 9,693 @ $18.02 | $175K | −2.5% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 383,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 1,486 @ $18.02 | $27K | −2.7% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 1,873 @ $17.55 | $33K | −4.4% of holding | −19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 15,440 @ $17.06 | $263K | −2.6% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 589,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Naude Pierre | director | Sale | 22,700 @ $16.75 | $380K | −1.9% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,144,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Orenstein Gregory | officer | Sale | 8,840 @ $16.75 | $148K | −2.0% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 442,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Rieger April | officer | Sale | 5,747 @ $16.75 | $96K | −2.6% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,949 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 5,747 @ $16.75 | $96K | −1.0% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 596,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 735 @ $16.75 | $12K | −1.7% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 2,182 @ $18.26 | $40K | −4.8% of holding | −8.6% | −11.6% | 43,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Naude Pierre | director | Sale | 24,273 @ $18.68 | $453K | −2.0% of holding | −8.9% | −9.5% | 1,166,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 16,047 @ $18.68 | $300K | −2.6% of holding | −8.9% | −9.5% | 602,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Orenstein Gregory | officer | Sale | 10,562 @ $18.68 | $197K | −2.3% of holding | −8.9% | −9.5% | 451,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Rieger April | officer | Sale | 8,078 @ $18.68 | $151K | −3.5% of holding | −8.9% | −9.5% | 221,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 1,330 @ $18.68 | $25K | −2.8% of holding | −8.9% | −9.5% | 45,401 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 7,331 @ $24.51 | $180K | −1.2% of holding | −23.0% | −38.2% | 618,597 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 1,507 @ $24.49 | $37K | −3.1% of holding | −10.6% | −54.3% | 46,731 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 7,331 @ $24.11 | $177K | −1.2% of holding | +7.3% | −41.7% | 618,597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 10,006 @ $25.81 | $258K | −1.6% of holding | −5.5% | −39.0% | 618,597 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Naude Pierre | director | Sale | 4,881 @ $25.81 | $126K | −0.4% of holding | −5.5% | −39.0% | 1,187,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Rieger April | officer | Sale | 4,731 @ $25.81 | $122K | −2.0% of holding | −5.5% | −39.0% | 229,774 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Orenstein Gregory | officer | Sale | 4,353 @ $25.81 | $112K | −0.9% of holding | −5.5% | −39.0% | 461,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 640 @ $25.81 | $17K | −1.3% of holding | −5.5% | −39.0% | 48,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Rieger April | officer | Sale | 6,018 @ $30.40 | $183K | −2.5% of holding | −18.2% | −51.7% | 234,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | HORING JEFF | director | Sale | 3,889,254 @ $30.00 | $116.7M | −100.0% of holding | −20.4% | −53.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | HORING JEFF | director | Sale | 26,168 @ $31.12 | $814K | −0.7% of holding | −18.4% | −51.9% | 3,889,254 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 529 @ $30.74 | $16K | −1.1% of holding | −18.4% | −51.9% | 48,878 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | HORING JEFF | director | Sale | 282,367 @ $32.23 | $9.1M | −6.7% of holding | −19.1% | −53.7% | 3,915,422 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | HORING JEFF | director | Sale | 210,212 @ $32.26 | $6.8M | −4.7% of holding | −15.4% | −56.1% | 4,248,379 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | HORING JEFF | director | Sale | 50,590 @ $33.29 | $1.7M | −1.2% of holding | −15.4% | −56.1% | 4,197,789 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 9,550 @ $27.45 | $262K | −1.5% of holding | +7.5% | −43.0% | 628,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Naude Pierre | director | Sale | 4,659 @ $27.45 | $128K | −0.4% of holding | +7.5% | −43.0% | 1,192,461 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Orenstein Gregory | officer | Sale | 4,155 @ $27.45 | $114K | −0.9% of holding | +7.5% | −43.0% | 466,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Rieger April | officer | Sale | 3,028 @ $27.45 | $83K | −1.2% of holding | +7.5% | −43.0% | 240,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 211 @ $27.45 | $6K | −0.4% of holding | +7.5% | −43.0% | 49,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Lake Spencer | director | Sale | 4,045 @ $25.98 | $105K | −8.5% of holding | +1.8% | −21.8% | 43,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Lake Spencer | director | Sale | 3,074 @ $25.94 | $80K | −6.1% of holding | +1.8% | −21.8% | 47,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 2,167 @ $22.79 | $49K | −7.4% of holding | +16.6% | −1.7% | 27,108 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-02 | Naude Pierre | director | Sale | 30,745 @ $23.00 | $707K | −2.5% of holding | +13.6% | −4.8% | 1,197,120 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Desmond Sean | director | Sale | 12,339 @ $23.00 | $284K | −1.9% of holding | +13.6% | −4.8% | 637,405 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Orenstein Gregory | officer | Sale | 10,343 @ $23.00 | $238K | −2.2% of holding | +13.6% | −4.8% | 470,254 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Rieger April | officer | Sale | 6,589 @ $23.00 | $152K | −2.6% of holding | +13.6% | −4.8% | 243,551 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 866 @ $23.00 | $20K | −2.9% of holding | +13.6% | −4.8% | 29,275 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Sale | 583 @ $22.09 | $13K | −3.1% of holding | −4.5% | −18.7% | 18,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,064 | 1,239,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,064 | 172,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,064 | 1,242,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,064 | 180,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,064 | 1,270,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,064 | 188,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Nyweide Justin C. | director | Award / grant | 12,911 | 28,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | RUH WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 12,911 | 49,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Spruill William R | director | Award / grant | 12,911 | 42,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yasutake Andrew Hideki | director | Award / grant | 12,911 | 25,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Naude Pierre | director | Award / grant | 12,911 | 1,121,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kilday Pamela | director | Award / grant | 12,911 | 38,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Dugatkin Diego German | director | Award / grant | 12,911 | 25,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Doyle Jonathan J | director | Award / grant | 12,911 | 89,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,064 | 1,270,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,064 | 196,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,065 | 1,279,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,065 | 204,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Desmond Sean | director | Award / grant | 703,661 | 1,293,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Rieger April | officer | Award / grant | 177,345 | 393,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Orenstein Gregory | officer | Award / grant | 274,599 | 716,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Award / grant | 15,446 | 56,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Kettell Keith | officer | Award / grant | 228,832 | 228,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | RUH WILLIAM J | director | Gift | 3,200 | 200,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,065 | 604,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 8,065 | 212,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Naude Pierre | director | Award / grant | 3,516 | 1,191,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 7,331 | 625,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 7,331 | 220,614 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 7,331 | 625,928 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Desmond Sean | director | Option exercise | 7,331 | 227,945 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Yasutake Andrew Hideki | director | Award / grant | 4,414 | 12,511 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Dugatkin Diego German | director | Award / grant | 8,097 | 8,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Dugatkin Diego German | director | Award / grant | 4,414 | 12,511 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Yasutake Andrew Hideki | director | Award / grant | 8,097 | 8,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Sellers Jeanette | officer | Award / grant | 22,510 | 49,618 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Kilday Pamela | director | Award / grant | 7,385 | 25,189 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Spruill William R | director | Award / grant | 7,385 | 29,376 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | HORING JEFF | director | Award / grant | 7,385 | 124,988 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | RUH WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 7,385 | 36,925 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.