Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.34 · now $2.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NCMI has typically landed between $1.53 and $3.05 — a range of −34.5% to +30.2% from the issuance price $2.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,909 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-02-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NCMI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.28 (-2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.04–$2.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.53–$3.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,909 windows spanning 2007-02-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −75.8% | −75.8% | +19.1% |
| 2020-03-04 | −67.0% | −73.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −65.3% | −79.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-03-17 | +262.0% | +0.0% | +309.0% |
| 2023-03-21 | +200.0% | −3.5% | +261.9% |
| 2023-03-20 | +180.0% | −9.2% | +240.8% |
4,909 overlapping windows · 2007-02-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
37%
+0.0%
n=19
Feb
58%
+2.6%
n=19
Mar
50%
−5.1%
n=20
Apr
45%
+4.6%
n=20
May
50%
−1.3%
n=20
Jun
65%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
45%
+2.8%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Sep
55%
+2.2%
n=20
Oct
32%
−6.7%
n=19
Nov
47%
+2.3%
n=19
Dec
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 50,623 @ $4.18 | $212K | −8.4% of holding | −40.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 550,661 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $4.05 | $4K | −0.5% of holding | −40.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,095 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 70,168 @ $3.77 | $265K | −11.8% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 526,724 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 32,328 @ $3.77 | $122K | −13.6% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 205,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 12,058 @ $3.77 | $45K | −6.9% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 163,162 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 28,900 @ $3.62 | $105K | −5.5% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 493,559 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 46,100 @ $3.55 | $164K | −8.1% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 522,459 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 19,000 @ $3.42 | $65K | −9.3% of holding | +13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,757 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 20,181 @ $3.45 | $70K | −3.4% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 568,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 12,925 @ $3.45 | $45K | −5.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 5,509 @ $3.45 | $19K | −3.6% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 64,699 @ $3.04 | $197K | −10.4% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 559,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 32,350 @ $3.04 | $98K | −14.1% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 12,066 @ $3.04 | $37K | −7.8% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 143,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 31,106 @ $3.55 | $110K | −5.6% of holding | −10.4% | −39.7% | 520,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 37,847 @ $3.89 | $147K | −7.0% of holding | −7.2% | −9.3% | 501,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 20,991 @ $3.89 | $82K | −10.6% of holding | −7.2% | −9.3% | 177,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 9,043 @ $3.89 | $35K | −6.5% of holding | −7.2% | −9.3% | 129,330 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 21,194 @ $3.89 | $82K | −11.7% of holding | +5.9% | −32.3% | 159,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Sullivan Catherine | officer | Sale | 734 @ $4.31 | $3K | −2.8% of holding | −1.6% | −24.4% | 25,737 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 37,834 @ $4.44 | $168K | −7.6% of holding | −11.4% | −30.7% | 462,144 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 20,938 @ $4.44 | $93K | −10.4% of holding | −11.4% | −30.7% | 181,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 9,039 @ $4.44 | $40K | −7.1% of holding | −11.4% | −30.7% | 118,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Sullivan Catherine | officer | Sale | 1,835 @ $4.44 | $8K | −6.5% of holding | −11.4% | −30.7% | 26,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 30,971 @ $4.68 | $145K | −6.8% of holding | −11.8% | −30.3% | 422,478 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 2,584 @ $5.00 | $13K | −2.3% of holding | −14.4% | −30.8% | 108,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Sullivan Catherine | officer | Sale | 734 @ $4.19 | $3K | −3.0% of holding | +6.8% | −30.5% | 23,535 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | HILL JULIANA F | director | Sale | 13,372 @ $4.44 | $59K | −24.9% of holding | +8.6% | −30.5% | 40,365 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 3,862 @ $4.67 | $18K | −0.8% of holding | −6.3% | −32.5% | 453,449 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 36,393 @ $4.65 | $169K | −7.5% of holding | −10.2% | −34.0% | 449,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 37,828 @ $4.82 | $182K | −8.4% of holding | −3.8% | −31.4% | 411,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 18,914 @ $4.82 | $91K | −10.4% of holding | −3.8% | −31.4% | 163,385 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 9,038 @ $4.82 | $44K | −7.5% of holding | −3.8% | −31.4% | 111,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Sullivan Catherine | officer | Sale | 1,834 @ $4.82 | $9K | −7.0% of holding | −3.8% | −31.4% | 24,269 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 17,669 @ $6.03 | $106K | −12.6% of holding | +4.8% | −36.4% | 122,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 84,204 @ $5.92 | $499K | −20.4% of holding | +4.3% | −33.5% | 329,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 42,102 @ $5.92 | $249K | −23.1% of holding | +4.3% | −33.5% | 140,208 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 20,118 @ $5.92 | $119K | −18.3% of holding | +4.3% | −33.5% | 90,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Sullivan Catherine | officer | Sale | 4,075 @ $5.92 | $24K | −18.2% of holding | +4.3% | −33.5% | 18,281 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Blantyre Capital Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 44,117 @ $5.32 | $235K | +0.4% of holding | +12.3% | −32.5% | 10,354,550 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Blantyre Capital Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 32,488 @ $5.32 | $173K | +0.8% of holding | +12.3% | −32.5% | 4,309,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | Blantyre Capital Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 59,712 @ $5.18 | $309K | +0.6% of holding | +17.0% | −28.9% | 10,310,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Blantyre Capital Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 43,973 @ $5.18 | $228K | +1.0% of holding | +17.0% | −28.9% | 4,277,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Blantyre Capital Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 172,770 @ $5.12 | $885K | +1.7% of holding | +22.8% | −23.0% | 10,250,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Blantyre Capital Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 127,230 @ $5.12 | $651K | +3.1% of holding | +22.8% | −23.0% | 4,233,501 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 11,204 @ $6.79 | $76K | −4.4% of holding | −9.8% | −41.6% | 241,178 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Sale | 167,406 @ $6.51 | $1.1M | −42.2% of holding | −0.1% | −31.1% | 229,415 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Sale | 71,218 @ $6.51 | $463K | −42.6% of holding | −0.1% | −31.1% | 96,027 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Sale | 23,742 @ $6.51 | $155K | −26.2% of holding | −0.1% | −31.1% | 66,987 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | Sullivan Catherine | officer | Sale | 7,332 @ $6.51 | $48K | −38.4% of holding | −0.1% | −31.1% | 11,753 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
128 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Glazek David Edward | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 111,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 74,560 | 601,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 74,560 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Option exercise | 25,833 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Option exercise | 51,666 | 237,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 103,333 | 596,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Option exercise | 51,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Option exercise | 25,833 | 175,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 103,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Bell Nicholas | director | Award / grant | 32,346 | 32,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Sadie Mark James van Lill | director | Award / grant | 32,346 | 32,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | MARCHESE JOE | director | Award / grant | 32,346 | 32,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | HILL JULIANA F | director | Award / grant | 32,346 | 32,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Glazek David Edward | director | Award / grant | 32,346 | 32,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Campbell Kotzman Kelly | director | Award / grant | 32,346 | 32,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Option exercise | 20,649 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 29,709 | 588,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 29,709 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Option exercise | 20,649 | 217,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Option exercise | 11,799 | 154,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Option exercise | 11,799 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Option exercise | 51,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 103,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Option exercise | 51,666 | 229,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 103,333 | 623,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Option exercise | 25,833 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Option exercise | 25,833 | 155,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 49,706 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Option exercise | 49,706 | 551,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | HILL JULIANA F | director | Option exercise | 18,210 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | MARCHESE JOE | director | Option exercise | 18,210 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Glazek David Edward | director | Option exercise | 18,210 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Glazek David Edward | director | Option exercise | 18,210 | 61,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ng Ronnie Y. | officer | Award / grant | 98,315 | 98,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Lesinski Thomas F. | director | Award / grant | 140,449 | 140,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Woods Maria VG | officer | Award / grant | 56,180 | 56,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Bell Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 18,210 | 69,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Bell Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 18,210 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | HILL JULIANA F | director | Option exercise | 18,210 | 58,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Campbell Kotzman Kelly | director | Option exercise | 14,026 | 14,026 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.