NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.Consumer Cyclical · Travel Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.53 · now $14.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NCLH has typically landed between $11.01 and $18.07 — a range of −24.2% to +24.3% from the issuance price $14.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,414 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-01-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NCLH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.01worst · -24.2%$18.07best · +24.3%
  • now $14.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.43 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.79–$16.08
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.01–$18.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,414 windows spanning 2013-01-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−85.0%−85.0%+0.6%
2020-02-19−84.2%−85.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−82.0%−84.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+123.8%−14.1%+123.8%
2020-05-06+101.7%−7.3%+101.7%
2020-05-13+98.8%+0.0%+160.5%

3,414 overlapping windows · 2013-01-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$8.9B
market cap
$1.19
EPS (TTM)
16.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$9.8B
'20'25
Net income$423M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr19.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr6.61
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $14.53$-365.76$59.32
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-336.44
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$28.27
  • Analyst target · range $15.00–$30.00$21.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$14.53

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
46%
+1.5%
n=13
Feb
57%
+2.8%
n=14
Mar
36%
−7.4%
n=14
Apr
50%
+1.4%
n=14
May
43%
−1.1%
n=14
Jun
50%
+2.5%
n=14
Jul
57%
+0.6%
n=14
Aug
57%
−0.3%
n=14
Sep
43%
+0.4%
n=14
Oct
54%
+3.3%
n=13
Nov
62%
+3.3%
n=13
Dec
69%
+3.8%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$27$142026-06-02: 1 insider purchase, $12.4M — PAGLIUCA STEPHEN G2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $12.6M — PAGLIUCA STEPHEN G2026-05-22: 1 insider purchase, $2.5M — CHIDSEY JOHN2026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $475K — COHEN JONATHAN Z2026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $149K — Cil Jose E.2026-05-18: 1 insider purchase, $76K — Cil Jose E.2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $248K — MacDonald Brian P2026-05-07: 3 insider purchases, $718K — Byng-Thorne Zillah, Lansberry Kevin Allen …2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $110K — Ashby Faye L.2025-11-25: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Dahlgren Patrik2025-11-07: 1 insider purchase, $96K — Curtis Harry C2025-11-06: 5 insider purchases, $1.6M — Byng-Thorne Zillah, Sommer Harry, Montague Jason, Kempa Mark …2025-11: 7 open-market purchases, $1.8M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $110K2026-05: 8 open-market purchases, $4.2M2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $25.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector PAGLIUCA STEPHEN G — Purchase on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector PAGLIUCA STEPHEN G — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CHIDSEY JOHN — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector COHEN JONATHAN Z — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cil Jose E. — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed same daydirector Cil Jose E. — Purchase on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MacDonald Brian P — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Byng-Thorne Zillah — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lansberry Kevin Allen — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Byng-Thorne Zillah — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ashby Faye L. — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Dahlgren Patrik — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector Curtis Harry C — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Byng-Thorne Zillah — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Sommer Harry — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed same dayofficer Montague Jason — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed same dayofficer Kempa Mark — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed same daydirector David Stella — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-02PAGLIUCA STEPHEN GdirectorPurchase685,000 @ $18.06$12.4M+97.3% of holding+10.8%not yet — horizon still open1,388,912Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01PAGLIUCA STEPHEN GdirectorPurchase695,000 @ $18.16$12.6M+7798.5% of holding+15.9%not yet — horizon still open703,912Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-22CHIDSEY JOHNdirectorPurchase153,000 @ $16.37$2.5M+15.5% of holding+30.3%not yet — horizon still open1,139,940Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-20COHEN JONATHAN ZdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $15.83$475K+336.6% of holding+24.3%not yet — horizon still open38,912Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Cil Jose E.directorPurchase10,000 @ $14.91$149K+15.6% of holding+36.2%not yet — horizon still open74,295Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18Cil Jose E.directorPurchase5,000 @ $15.25$76K+8.4% of holding+29.6%not yet — horizon still open64,295Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11MacDonald Brian PdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $16.54$248K+168.3% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open23,912Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Byng-Thorne ZillahdirectorPurchase25,015 @ $17.67$442K+33.4% of holding+6.7%not yet — horizon still open99,811Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-07Lansberry Kevin AllendirectorPurchase11,400 @ $17.28$197K+127.9% of holding+6.7%not yet — horizon still open20,312Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-07Byng-Thorne ZillahdirectorPurchase4,452 @ $17.83$79K+20.9% of holding+6.7%not yet — horizon still open25,742Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Ashby Faye L.officerSale5,250 @ $21.00$110K−3.9% of holding+9.1%−13.2%130,370Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25Dahlgren PatrikofficerPurchase5,550 @ $17.94$100K+4.0% of holding+21.7%−12.8%144,817Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-07Curtis Harry CdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $19.25$96K+11.0% of holding−3.6%−26.7%50,325Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-06Byng-Thorne ZillahdirectorPurchase29,008 @ $18.11$525K+78.4% of holding+2.8%−20.0%66,017Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06Sommer HarrydirectorPurchase25,000 @ $18.52$463K+3.6% of holding+2.8%−20.0%720,728Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06Montague JasonofficerPurchase13,400 @ $18.81$252Kownership Δ n/a+2.8%−20.0%13,400Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06Kempa MarkofficerPurchase10,635 @ $18.53$197K+3.0% of holding+2.8%−20.0%369,352Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06David StelladirectorPurchase6,986 @ $18.59$130K+7.2% of holding+2.8%−20.0%103,474Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-13Lansberry Kevin AllendirectorAward / grant8,9128,912Form 4
2026-04-13MacDonald Brian PdirectorAward / grant8,9128,912Form 4
2026-04-13COHEN JONATHAN ZdirectorAward / grant8,9128,912Form 4
2026-04-13PAGLIUCA STEPHEN GdirectorAward / grant8,9128,912Form 4
2026-04-13Cruz AlexdirectorAward / grant8,91221,657Form 4
2026-03-26CHIDSEY JOHNdirectorAward / grant1,172,6381,172,638Form 4
2026-03-26CHIDSEY JOHNdirectorAward / grant967,254986,940Form 4
2026-03-06Dahlgren PatrikofficerAward / grant54,862240,528Form 4
2026-03-06Montague JasonofficerAward / grant54,862102,940Form 4
2026-03-06Kazlauskas MarcofficerAward / grant54,86254,862Form 4
2026-03-06Kempa MarkofficerAward / grant47,880480,514Form 4
2026-03-06Farkas Daniel SofficerAward / grant44,887424,037Form 4
2026-03-06Ashby Faye L.officerAward / grant29,925152,082Form 4
2026-03-01Farkas Daniel SofficerWithheld for tax46,129392,574Form 4
2026-03-01Kempa MarkofficerWithheld for tax46,074455,378Form 4
2026-03-01Dahlgren PatrikofficerWithheld for tax29,607205,462Form 4
2026-03-01Kempa MarkofficerWithheld for tax8,664446,714Form 4
2026-03-01Farkas Daniel SofficerWithheld for tax8,664438,703Form 4
2026-03-01Kempa MarkofficerWithheld for tax7,208439,506Form 4
2026-03-01Dahlgren PatrikofficerWithheld for tax7,004192,538Form 4
2026-03-01Farkas Daniel SofficerWithheld for tax6,970385,604Form 4
2026-03-01Dahlgren PatrikofficerWithheld for tax6,872185,666Form 4
2026-03-01Kempa MarkofficerWithheld for tax6,872432,634Form 4
2026-03-01Farkas Daniel SofficerWithheld for tax6,454379,150Form 4
2026-03-01Dahlgren PatrikofficerWithheld for tax5,920199,542Form 4
2026-03-01Montague JasonofficerWithheld for tax4,31348,078Form 4
2026-03-01Ashby Faye L.officerWithheld for tax3,469126,901Form 4
2026-03-01Ashby Faye L.officerWithheld for tax2,525124,376Form 4
2026-03-01Ashby Faye L.officerWithheld for tax2,219122,157Form 4
2026-02-24Kempa MarkofficerAward / grant132,100501,452Form 4
2026-02-24Farkas Daniel SofficerAward / grant132,100447,367Form 4
2026-02-24Dahlgren PatrikofficerAward / grant90,252235,069Form 4
2026-01-02Landry Mary E.directorAward / grant8,77966,653Form 4
2026-01-02Abrams David M.directorAward / grant8,77992,740Form 4
2026-01-02David StelladirectorAward / grant13,169116,643Form 4
2026-01-02Byng-Thorne ZillahdirectorAward / grant8,77974,796Form 4
2026-01-02CHIDSEY JOHNdirectorAward / grant13,16919,686Form 4
2026-01-02Jojo Linda PdirectorAward / grant13,16920,871Form 4
2026-01-02Cil Jose E.directorAward / grant13,16924,750Form 4
2026-01-02Curtis Harry CdirectorAward / grant8,77959,104Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-05-082023-04-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-06-102022-05-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-06-102022-05-23$1–15K
Thomas SuozziHousepurchase2021-09-232021-01-21$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.