Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.15 · now $12.28 (2026-09-17, +1.1% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NCDL has typically landed between $11.11 and $13.07 — a range of −8.6% to +7.6% from the issuance price $12.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
642 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-01-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NCDL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.28 (+1.1%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.17 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.81–$12.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.11–$13.07
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-14 | −12.7% | −13.3% | +1.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | −12.6% | −12.6% | +1.5% |
| 2025-03-13 | −12.5% | −12.5% | +2.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-01 | +16.8% | +0.0% | +16.8% |
| 2026-03-27 | +16.6% | +0.0% | +18.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | +15.0% | −0.2% | +15.0% |
643 overlapping windows · 2024-01-25 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $12.25 | $61K | +15.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,647 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | McCally John | officer | Purchase | 7,500 @ $13.27 | $100K | +96.8% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,245 | Form 4 · filed 40 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $13.20 | $66K | +19.5% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Hassen Marissa | officer | Purchase | 3,782 @ $13.21 | $50K | +63.1% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $13.13 | $66K | +25.0% of holding | +4.4% | −17.0% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | RITCHIE JAMES JOSEPH | director | Purchase | 17,857 @ $13.71 | $245K | +29.6% of holding | +3.1% | −16.1% | 78,193 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Linett Mat | other | Purchase | 2,000 @ $13.05 | $26K | +23.9% of holding | +4.6% | −14.3% | 10,365 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | McCally John | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $13.30 | $27K | +36.8% of holding | +5.4% | −13.6% | 7,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Strife Jason | other | Purchase | 7,690 @ $13.40 | $103K | +95.6% of holding | +5.5% | −11.8% | 15,737 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Kencel Kenneth J. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $13.04 | $130K | +35.6% of holding | +4.2% | −9.9% | 38,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Kencel Kenneth J. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $13.04 | $130K | +20.8% of holding | +4.2% | −9.9% | 58,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Miranda Kenneth M. | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $12.83 | $38K | +11.1% of holding | +4.2% | −9.9% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Miranda Kenneth M. | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $14.10 | $28K | +8.0% of holding | −3.2% | −15.7% | 27,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $14.20 | $71K | +33.3% of holding | +1.2% | −14.2% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-06 | Kencel Kenneth J. | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $14.22 | $284K | +71.1% of holding | +2.4% | −10.7% | 48,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $14.85 | $74K | +50.0% of holding | −4.3% | −4.7% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-16 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $16.30 | $82K | +100.0% of holding | +3.5% | −18.7% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Hassen Marissa | officer | Purchase | 4,630 @ $16.18 | $75K | +338.5% of holding | +2.6% | −17.6% | 5,998 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Miranda Kenneth M. | director | Purchase | 3,103 @ $15.68 | $49K | ownership Δ n/a | −1.0% | −17.7% | 3,103 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Linett Mat | other | Purchase | 3,000 @ $15.92 | $48K | +55.9% of holding | −0.5% | −19.2% | 8,365 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Kencel Kenneth J. | director | Purchase | 8,117 @ $15.34 | $124K | +40.6% of holding | +2.9% | −18.5% | 28,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $17.27 | $86K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.0% | −0.7% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-02 | Kencel Kenneth J. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $17.37 | $174K | +100.0% of holding | +1.7% | −0.8% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-27 | Kencel Kenneth J. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $17.35 | $174K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.5% | −1.7% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
2 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Other acquisition | 431 | 14,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Vichness Shaul | officer | Other acquisition | 386 | 14,061 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.