NBRNabors Industries Ltd.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $85.72 · now $85.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NBR has typically landed between $62.62 and $112.16 — a range of −26.9% to +30.8% from the issuance price $85.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($85.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NBR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $85.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$62.62worst · -26.9%$112.16best · +30.8%
  • now $85.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $87.36 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $76.93–$97.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.62–$112.16
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-11−85.1%−85.1%+5.9%
2020-02-13−83.6%−85.5%+3.1%
2020-02-12−83.4%−85.6%+2.2%
3 best
2020-05-07+528.1%+0.0%+528.1%
2020-05-06+427.9%+0.0%+427.9%
2020-05-08+392.5%+0.0%+496.0%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+6.7%
n=18
Feb
53%
+4.7%
n=19
Mar
63%
−1.8%
n=19
Apr
58%
−0.3%
n=19
May
42%
+4.5%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.3%
n=19
Aug
42%
−6.2%
n=19
Sep
53%
−2.9%
n=19
Oct
50%
+3.7%
n=18
Nov
50%
+2.5%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$111$322026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $295K — Tudor David J2026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $501K — YEARWOOD JOHN2025-09-11: 2 insider sales, $12.8M — VARDE PARTNERS INC …2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $12.8M2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $501K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $295K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Tudor David J — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed same daydirector YEARWOOD JOHN — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner VARDE PARTNERS INC — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner VARDE PARTNERS INC — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Tudor David JdirectorSale3,200 @ $92.30$295K−37.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,264Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-20YEARWOOD JOHNdirectorPurchase6,410 @ $78.12$501K+29.1% of holding+13.4%+4.6%28,444Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-11VARDE PARTNERS INCtenPercentOwnerSale305,000 @ $41.01$12.5M−17.7% of holding−12.5%+78.9%1,413,430Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-11VARDE PARTNERS INCtenPercentOwnerSale7,378 @ $42.33$312K−0.5% of holding−12.5%+78.9%1,406,052Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-04VARDE PARTNERS INCtenPercentOwnerSale6,700 @ $247.00$1.7M−50.0% of holding+5.4%+74.7%6,700Form 4 · filed 48 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

91 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-02CRANE JAMES RdirectorAward / grant1,32418,937Form 4
2026-06-02Tudor David JdirectorAward / grant1,3248,464Form 4
2026-06-02Beder Tanya SdirectorAward / grant1,32417,859Form 4
2026-06-02YEARWOOD JOHNdirectorAward / grant1,32429,768Form 4
2026-06-02Kotts John PdirectorAward / grant1,32413,339Form 4
2026-06-02CHASE ANTHONY RdirectorAward / grant1,32415,408Form 4
2026-06-02Linn Michael CdirectorAward / grant1,32418,937Form 4
2026-02-19Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerWithheld for tax16244,839Form 4
2026-02-18Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerWithheld for tax31445,001Form 4
2026-02-15Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerWithheld for tax17545,452Form 4
2026-02-15Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerWithheld for tax13745,315Form 4
2026-02-11Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerWithheld for tax19445,627Form 4
2026-02-09Andrews Mark DofficerAward / grant4,57126,101Form 4
2026-02-09Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerAward / grant3,90545,821Form 4
2026-02-09Andrews Mark DofficerAward / grant1,77521,530Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorWithheld for tax7,69397,351Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorWithheld for tax6,462107,309Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorWithheld for tax5,50285,946Form 4
2026-01-01Restrepo William JofficerWithheld for tax4,343124,091Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorWithheld for tax1,97477,468Form 4
2026-01-01Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerWithheld for tax81221,132Form 4
2026-01-01Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerAward / grant11,57632,708Form 4
2026-01-01Andrews Mark DofficerOption exercise1,64219,755Form 4
2026-01-01Andrews Mark DofficerAward / grant1,6421,642Form 4
2026-01-01Andrews Mark DofficerOption exercise1,6420Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorOption exercise5,01679,442Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorOption exercise13,98091,448Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorOption exercise16,4200Form 4
2026-01-01Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerOption exercise2,73621,944Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorOption exercise19,098105,044Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorOption exercise16,420113,771Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorAward / grant57,29357,293Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorOption exercise19,09838,195Form 4
2026-01-01PETRELLO ANTHONY GdirectorAward / grant16,42016,420Form 4
2026-01-01Restrepo William JofficerOption exercise17,105128,434Form 4
2026-01-01Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerAward / grant9,20841,916Form 4
2026-01-01Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerAward / grant2,7362,736Form 4
2026-01-01Rodriguez Rodriguez Miguel AngelofficerOption exercise2,7360Form 4
2026-01-01Restrepo William JofficerAward / grant17,10517,105Form 4
2026-01-01Restrepo William JofficerOption exercise17,1050Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Christopher L. JacobsHousesale2022-07-282022-06-16$15–50K
Christopher L. JacobsHousepurchase2022-05-192022-04-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-08-102018-07-24$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-06-152017-06-06$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-06-152017-05-04$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-05-262017-04-07$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-05-262017-04-07$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2017-04-262017-03-24$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2017-04-262017-03-24$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-03-172017-02-24$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-03-172017-02-24$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-03-172017-02-09$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-03-172017-02-09$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2017-03-172017-02-01$50–100K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.