NBPNovaBridge BiosciencesHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.57 · now $1.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NBP has typically landed between $1.03 and $2.28 — a range of −34.5% to +45.3% from the issuance price $1.57.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,653 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-01-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NBP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.03worst · -34.5%$2.28best · +45.3%
  • now $1.57 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.44 (-8.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.26–$1.62
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.03–$2.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,653 windows spanning 2020-01-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-12-28−53.9%−53.9%+5.7%
2021-12-29−51.2%−54.2%+4.9%
2022-02-10−49.9%−49.9%+15.2%
3 best
2025-05-08+218.2%+0.0%+218.2%
2025-05-09+200.0%+0.0%+218.2%
2025-05-15+184.7%+0.0%+216.4%

1,653 overlapping windows · 2020-01-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.5%
n=6
Feb
29%
−4.5%
n=7
Mar
29%
−14.0%
n=7
Apr
57%
+5.8%
n=7
May
57%
+7.0%
n=7
Jun
86%
+20.2%
n=7
Jul
14%
−9.0%
n=7
Aug
43%
+5.8%
n=7
Sep
43%
−8.1%
n=7
Oct
33%
−1.5%
n=6
Nov
17%
−5.6%
n=6
Dec
67%
+4.7%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$7$12026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $80K — Cao Sean Wuxiong2026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $3K — Xu Cong Claire2026-07-06: 1 insider sale, $4K — Xu Cong Claire2026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $6K — Dennis Phillip Andrew2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $14K — Xu Cong Claire2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $43K — Cao Sean Wuxiong2026-04-24: 1 insider purchase, $577K — Hagler Mark Arnold2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $577K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $43K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $19K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $4K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $3K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $80K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Cao Sean Wuxiong — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Xu Cong Claire — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Xu Cong Claire — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dennis Phillip Andrew — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Xu Cong Claire — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cao Sean Wuxiong — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hagler Mark Arnold — Purchase on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorSale107,978 @ $0.74$80K−28.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open266,467Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31Xu Cong ClaireofficerSale3,282 @ $0.79$3K−1.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open304,201Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-06Xu Cong ClaireofficerSale4,485 @ $0.89$4K−1.5% of holding−20.6%not yet — horizon still open298,101Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-18Dennis Phillip AndrewofficerSale8,494 @ $0.66$6K−5.1% of holding+21.8%not yet — horizon still open157,941Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-01Xu Cong ClaireofficerSale3,494 @ $3.94$14K−1.2% of holding+17.8%not yet — horizon still open290,154Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorSale21,399 @ $1.99$43K−37.9% of holding−24.3%not yet — horizon still open35,073Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24Hagler Mark ArnoldofficerPurchase230,000 @ $2.51$577Kownership Δ n/a−29.2%not yet — horizon still open230,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

37 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise102,233306,700Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise45,320135,960Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise235,136270,209Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise104,236374,445Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise104,236374,445Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise235,136270,209Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise235,136270,209Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise104,236374,445Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise104,236374,445Form 4
2026-09-03Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorOption exercise235,136270,209Form 4
2026-08-30Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise4,07928,558Form 4
2026-08-30Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise9,382307,483Form 4
2026-08-30Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise9,382307,483Form 4
2026-08-30Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise9,382307,483Form 4
2026-08-30Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise9,382307,483Form 4
2026-08-22Lenz Robert A.directorOption exercise7,48614,974Form 4
2026-08-22Lenz Robert A.directorOption exercise17,21817,218Form 4
2026-08-22Lenz Robert A.directorOption exercise17,21817,218Form 4
2026-08-22Lenz Robert A.directorOption exercise17,21817,218Form 4
2026-08-22Lenz Robert A.directorOption exercise17,21817,218Form 4
2026-07-08Lin Liwei LorraineofficerAward / grant254,780254,780Form 4
2026-07-08Hagler Mark ArnoldofficerAward / grant949,050949,050Form 4
2026-07-06Gupta SrishtidirectorAward / grant3,000,0003,000,000Form 4
2026-07-04Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise5,4050Form 4
2026-07-04Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise12,432302,586Form 4
2026-07-04Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise12,432302,586Form 4
2026-06-29Fu WeidirectorAward / grant725,140725,140Form 4
2026-06-29Fu WeidirectorAward / grant1,087,7201,087,720Form 4
2026-06-29Fu WeidirectorAward / grant1,010,1001,010,100Form 4
2026-06-22Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorAward / grant181,290181,290Form 4
2026-06-22Cao Sean WuxiongdirectorAward / grant181,280181,280Form 4
2026-06-17Dennis Phillip AndrewofficerOption exercise10,30282,422Form 4
2026-06-17Dennis Phillip AndrewofficerOption exercise23,695166,435Form 4
2026-06-17Dennis Phillip AndrewofficerOption exercise23,695166,435Form 4
2026-05-30Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise4,07932,637Form 4
2026-05-30Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise9,382293,648Form 4
2026-05-30Xu Cong ClaireofficerOption exercise9,382293,648Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.