NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $149.50 · now $149.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NBIX has typically landed between $129.38 and $168.85 — a range of −13.5% to +12.9% from the issuance price $149.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($149.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NBIX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $149.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$129.38worst · -13.5%$168.85best · +12.9%
  • now $149.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $151.95 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $142.77–$161.13
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $129.38–$168.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2007-11-30−65.3%−67.8%+0.0%
2007-12-03−64.7%−67.3%+0.0%
2007-11-29−62.1%−65.1%+8.6%
3 best
2010-05-20+116.7%+0.0%+116.7%
2013-12-17+113.0%+0.0%+116.2%
2013-12-13+111.1%−2.0%+111.1%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+11.5%
n=20
Feb
30%
−2.5%
n=20
Mar
50%
+1.7%
n=20
Apr
35%
+0.3%
n=20
May
60%
+5.9%
n=20
Jun
70%
+4.0%
n=20
Jul
55%
+1.5%
n=20
Aug
50%
+1.9%
n=20
Sep
50%
−2.5%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.4%
n=20
Nov
65%
+1.5%
n=20
Dec
60%
+0.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$186$1232026-09-14: 2 insider sales, $493K — ABERNETHY MATT, Boyer David W.2026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $333K — BENEVICH ERIC2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $228K — Norwalk Leslie V2026-07-10: 1 insider sale, $791K — Delaet Ingrid2026-07-09: 2 insider sales, $3.3M — Lippoldt Darin, Delaet Ingrid2026-07-08: 1 insider sale, $489K — Delaet Ingrid2026-07-07: 1 insider sale, $607K — Delaet Ingrid2026-06-29: 2 insider sales, $1.7M — Lippoldt Darin …2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $34K — Lippoldt Darin2026-06-05: 5 insider sales, $4.1M — SHERWIN STEPHEN A …2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $210K — Norwalk Leslie V2026-06-02: 5 insider sales, $5.8M — Cooke Julie …2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Onyia Jude2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $354K — Delaet Ingrid2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Onyia Jude2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $609K — Boyer David W.2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $37.8M — GORMAN KEVIN CHARLES2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — POPS RICHARD F2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $591K — Norwalk Leslie V2026-01-16: 2 insider sales, $4.8M — Gano Kyle …2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $185K — Norwalk Leslie V2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $761K — Norwalk Leslie V2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $699K — Lippoldt Darin2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — LYONS GARY A2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $906K — BENEVICH ERIC2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — MORROW GEORGE J2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — RASTETTER WILLIAM H2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $13.4M2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $5.8M2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $3.9M2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $4.8M2026-05: 6 open-market sales, $43.5M2026-06: 15 open-market sales, $13.6M2026-07: 6 open-market sales, $5.4M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $826K↑ buys↓ salesdirector ABERNETHY MATT — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Boyer David W. — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BENEVICH ERIC — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Norwalk Leslie V — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Delaet Ingrid — Sale on 2026-07-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Lippoldt Darin — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Delaet Ingrid — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed same dayofficer Delaet Ingrid — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Delaet Ingrid — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lippoldt Darin — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lippoldt Darin — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lippoldt Darin — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SHERWIN STEPHEN A — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SHERWIN STEPHEN A — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SHERWIN STEPHEN A — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SHERWIN STEPHEN A — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SHERWIN STEPHEN A — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Norwalk Leslie V — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Cooke Julie — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cooke Julie — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cooke Julie — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cooke Julie — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cooke Julie — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Onyia Jude — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Delaet Ingrid — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Onyia Jude — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Boyer David W. — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector GORMAN KEVIN CHARLES — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector POPS RICHARD F — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Norwalk Leslie V — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gano Kyle — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Gano Kyle — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Norwalk Leslie V — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Norwalk Leslie V — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lippoldt Darin — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LYONS GARY A — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BENEVICH ERIC — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MORROW GEORGE J — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RASTETTER WILLIAM H — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14ABERNETHY MATTdirectorSale2,311 @ $157.20$363K−5.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open42,808Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14Boyer David W.officerSale826 @ $157.45$130K−8.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,722Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-09BENEVICH ERICdirectorSale2,154 @ $154.61$333K−3.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open64,408Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Norwalk Leslie VdirectorSale1,250 @ $182.01$228K−44.0% of holding−17.8%not yet — horizon still open1,588Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-10Delaet IngridofficerSale4,367 @ $181.02$791K−21.2% of holding−9.3%not yet — horizon still open16,225Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-09Lippoldt DarinofficerSale10,000 @ $179.60$1.8M−15.4% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open54,729Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-09Delaet IngridofficerSale8,433 @ $178.72$1.5M−34.2% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open16,225Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-08Delaet IngridofficerSale2,737 @ $178.54$489K−14.4% of holding−13.4%not yet — horizon still open16,225Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-07Delaet IngridofficerSale3,401 @ $178.57$607K−17.3% of holding−12.0%not yet — horizon still open16,225Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29Lippoldt DarinofficerSale8,110 @ $170.03$1.4M−12.9% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open54,729Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-29Lippoldt DarinofficerSale1,690 @ $170.81$289K−3.0% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open54,729Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-26Lippoldt DarinofficerSale200 @ $169.56$34K−0.4% of holding+6.9%not yet — horizon still open54,729Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05SHERWIN STEPHEN AdirectorSale7,883 @ $163.81$1.3M−19.3% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open32,977Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05SHERWIN STEPHEN AdirectorSale6,896 @ $165.79$1.1M−22.7% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open23,532Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05SHERWIN STEPHEN AdirectorSale5,829 @ $166.56$971K−24.8% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open17,703Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05SHERWIN STEPHEN AdirectorSale2,549 @ $164.44$419K−7.7% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open30,428Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05SHERWIN STEPHEN AdirectorSale1,843 @ $167.31$308K−10.4% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open15,860Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-04Norwalk Leslie VdirectorSale1,250 @ $168.06$210K−30.6% of holding+7.0%not yet — horizon still open2,838Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02Cooke JulieofficerSale14,214 @ $154.83$2.2M−24.0% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open45,097Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02Cooke JulieofficerSale9,521 @ $157.62$1.5M−26.9% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open25,894Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02Cooke JulieofficerSale5,466 @ $155.46$850K−12.1% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open39,631Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02Cooke JulieofficerSale4,216 @ $156.77$661K−10.6% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open35,415Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02Cooke JulieofficerSale3,520 @ $158.59$558K−13.6% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open22,374Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01Onyia JudedirectorSale11,000 @ $160.25$1.8M−29.9% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open25,846Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29Delaet IngridofficerSale2,261 @ $156.71$354K−12.2% of holding+7.5%not yet — horizon still open16,225Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27Onyia JudedirectorSale11,000 @ $155.53$1.7M−29.9% of holding+10.8%not yet — horizon still open25,846Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Boyer David W.officerSale3,888 @ $156.64$609K−33.3% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open7,799Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19GORMAN KEVIN CHARLESdirectorSale245,088 @ $154.33$37.8M−32.4% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open511,293Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15POPS RICHARD FdirectorSale15,000 @ $157.65$2.4M−30.3% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open34,480Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-12Norwalk Leslie VdirectorSale3,810 @ $155.01$591K−61.1% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open2,429Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-16Gano KyledirectorSale34,588 @ $132.70$4.6M−19.8% of holding−2.3%+26.5%140,407Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-16Gano KyledirectorSale1,812 @ $132.71$240K−1.3% of holding−2.3%+26.5%140,407Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-16Norwalk Leslie VdirectorSale1,190 @ $155.09$185K−16.0% of holding−13.2%−4.5%6,239Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15Norwalk Leslie VdirectorSale5,000 @ $152.23$761K−40.2% of holding−15.4%−6.3%7,429Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08Lippoldt DarinofficerSale4,376 @ $159.65$699K−9.2% of holding−13.7%−2.9%43,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03LYONS GARY AdirectorSale15,000 @ $152.61$2.3M−11.1% of holding−11.4%−0.6%120,482Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-28BENEVICH ERICdirectorSale5,970 @ $151.74$906K−11.7% of holding−8.2%−10.0%44,893Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25MORROW GEORGE JdirectorSale15,000 @ $143.37$2.2M−68.0% of holding−1.4%−2.4%7,068Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05RASTETTER WILLIAM HdirectorSale18,000 @ $151.82$2.7M−30.8% of holding−0.1%−10.5%40,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

261 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11GORMAN KEVIN CHARLESdirectorWithheld for tax7,839517,797Form 4
2026-09-11BENEVICH ERICdirectorWithheld for tax3,38667,297Form 4
2026-09-11Gano KyledirectorWithheld for tax3,386153,880Form 4
2026-09-11ABERNETHY MATTdirectorWithheld for tax2,70945,119Form 4
2026-09-11Delaet IngridofficerWithheld for tax2,41918,289Form 4
2026-09-11Lippoldt DarinofficerWithheld for tax2,41956,793Form 4
2026-09-11Keswani Sanjay ChandruofficerWithheld for tax2,1123,281Form 4
2026-09-11Cooke JulieofficerWithheld for tax1,93624,025Form 4
2026-09-11Boyer David W.officerWithheld for tax1,9369,548Form 4
2026-09-11Onyia JudedirectorWithheld for tax1,93622,647Form 4
2026-09-11Gano KyledirectorWithheld for tax994154,728Form 4
2026-09-11GORMAN KEVIN CHARLESdirectorAward / grant14,343525,636Form 4
2026-09-11Gano KyledirectorAward / grant1,842155,722Form 4
2026-09-11Gano KyledirectorAward / grant6,275157,266Form 4
2026-09-11Keswani Sanjay ChandruofficerAward / grant3,9145,393Form 4
2026-09-11Lippoldt DarinofficerAward / grant4,48359,212Form 4
2026-09-11Cooke JulieofficerAward / grant3,58725,961Form 4
2026-09-11Onyia JudedirectorAward / grant3,58724,583Form 4
2026-09-11ABERNETHY MATTdirectorAward / grant5,02047,828Form 4
2026-09-11BENEVICH ERICdirectorAward / grant6,27570,683Form 4
2026-09-11Boyer David W.officerAward / grant3,58711,484Form 4
2026-09-11Delaet IngridofficerAward / grant4,48320,708Form 4
2026-09-09BENEVICH ERICdirectorOption exercise3,19466,562Form 4
2026-09-09BENEVICH ERICdirectorOption exercise3,1940Form 4
2026-09-02SHERWIN STEPHEN AdirectorGift1,00014,860Form 4
2026-08-04Onyia JudedirectorGift2,40920,996Form 4
2026-07-29Norwalk Leslie VdirectorOption exercise8422,430Form 4
2026-07-29Norwalk Leslie VdirectorOption exercise8422,140Form 4
2026-07-10Delaet IngridofficerOption exercise4,36720,592Form 4
2026-07-10Delaet IngridofficerOption exercise4,3670Form 4
2026-07-09Delaet IngridofficerOption exercise8,43324,658Form 4
2026-07-09Lippoldt DarinofficerOption exercise10,00064,729Form 4
2026-07-09Lippoldt DarinofficerOption exercise10,0004,965Form 4
2026-07-09Delaet IngridofficerOption exercise8,4337,478Form 4
2026-07-08Delaet IngridofficerOption exercise2,73718,962Form 4
2026-07-08Delaet IngridofficerOption exercise2,73715,911Form 4
2026-07-07Delaet IngridofficerOption exercise3,40119,626Form 4
2026-07-07Delaet IngridofficerOption exercise3,40118,648Form 4
2026-06-29Lippoldt DarinofficerOption exercise8,11062,839Form 4
2026-06-29Lippoldt DarinofficerOption exercise1,69056,419Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.