NBIS · TickerCove

NBISNebius Group N.V.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $209.37 · now $209.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NBIS has typically landed between $145.71 and $344.55 — a range of −30.4% to +64.6% from the issuance price $209.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

456 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-10-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($209.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$209.37 · 64% of range

$73.87 low$286.69 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+13.4%

typical move · IQR 39.5%

−30.4%worst (p90)+64.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NBIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $209.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $209.37 (+0.0%)
typical $237.49 (+13.4%)
middle 50% $196.13–$278.85
90% range $145.71–$344.55

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 456 windows spanning 2024-10-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-06-29	−43.2%	−43.2%	+5.8%
2025-02-18	−42.6%	−47.1%	+0.0%
2025-02-14	−42.3%	−42.8%	+8.0%
3 best
2025-09-04	+97.2%	−1.3%	+97.2%
2025-09-03	+91.7%	−2.4%	+91.7%
2026-04-30	+91.4%	+0.0%	+91.4%

456 overlapping windows · 2024-10-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+9.8%

n=2

Feb

50%

+3.3%

n=2

Mar

50%

−10.6%

n=2

Apr

100%

+20.4%

n=2

May

100%

+64.4%

n=2

Jun

100%

+35.0%

n=2

Jul

−16.3%

n=2

Aug

100%

+16.9%

n=2

Sep

100%

+32.9%

n=2

Oct

100%

+16.5%

n=1

Nov

50%

−12.3%

n=2

Dec

50%

+7.1%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Boroditsky Marc	director	Sale	5,000 @ $209.26	$1.0M	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-14	Boroditsky Marc	director	Sale	2,000 @ $208.63	$417K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	Alonso Sanchez Maria del Dado	officer	Sale	470 @ $196.00	$92K	−3.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,202	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14	Ryan Charles E	director	Sale	13,315 @ $263.32	$3.5M	−4.1% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	309,218	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Ryan Charles E	director	Sale	10,113 @ $265.45	$2.7M	−3.4% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	289,822	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Ryan Charles E	director	Sale	9,622 @ $266.67	$2.6M	−3.3% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	280,200	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Ryan Charles E	director	Sale	9,283 @ $264.78	$2.5M	−3.0% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	299,935	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Ryan Charles E	director	Sale	5,000 @ $268.61	$1.3M	−1.8% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	275,200	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Ryan Charles E	director	Sale	2,667 @ $269.64	$719K	−1.0% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	272,533	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	1,000 @ $272.76	$273K	−0.2% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	417,240	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	700 @ $271.75	$190K	−0.2% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	418,240	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	600 @ $270.44	$162K	−0.1% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	418,940	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	500 @ $273.78	$137K	−0.1% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	416,740	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	496 @ $266.78	$132K	−0.1% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	419,944	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	400 @ $277.02	$111K	−0.1% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	416,040	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	404 @ $267.87	$108K	−0.1% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	419,540	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	400 @ $264.75	$106K	−0.1% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	420,440	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	300 @ $275.80	$83K	−0.1% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	416,440	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	196 @ $277.86	$54K	−0.0% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	415,844	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	200 @ $263.51	$53K	−0.0% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	420,840	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	100 @ $258.55	$26K	−0.0% of holding	−22.9%	not yet — horizon still open	421,040	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	1,500 @ $197.30	$296K	−0.4% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	423,898	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	1,200 @ $196.10	$235K	−0.3% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	425,398	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	1,058 @ $198.87	$210K	−0.2% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	422,340	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	700 @ $194.07	$136K	−0.2% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	426,598	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	600 @ $202.29	$121K	−0.1% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	421,140	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	500 @ $198.25	$99K	−0.1% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	423,398	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	400 @ $192.33	$77K	−0.1% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	427,298	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	300 @ $201.24	$60K	−0.1% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	421,740	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	300 @ $200.04	$60K	−0.1% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	422,040	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	200 @ $189.24	$38K	−0.0% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	427,698	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	200 @ $187.79	$38K	−0.0% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	427,898	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-01	Volozh Arkadiy	director	Sale	46,627 @ $235.45	$11.0M	−5.4% of holding	−17.1%	not yet — horizon still open	821,662	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-01	Korolenko Andrey	officer	Sale	33,871 @ $235.45	$8.0M	−5.8% of holding	−17.1%	not yet — horizon still open	551,338	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-01	Shtan Danila	officer	Sale	16,937 @ $235.45	$4.0M	−5.8% of holding	−17.1%	not yet — horizon still open	274,763	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	3,206 @ $250.08	$802K	−0.8% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	380,871	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	900 @ $260.76	$235K	−0.2% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	379,271	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	606 @ $259.45	$157K	−0.2% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	378,665	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	200 @ $255.03	$51K	−0.0% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	429,804	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	200 @ $253.58	$51K	−0.1% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	380,471	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	200 @ $251.89	$50K	−0.0% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	430,204	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	200 @ $248.73	$50K	−0.1% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	384,077	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	100 @ $262.09	$26K	−0.0% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	428,098	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	100 @ $257.54	$26K	−0.0% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	429,704	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Sale	100 @ $246.17	$25K	−0.0% of holding	−33.7%	not yet — horizon still open	433,810	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-04	Shtan Danila	officer	Sale	15,678 @ $238.96	$3.7M	−5.1% of holding	−23.8%	not yet — horizon still open	291,700	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Boroditsky Marc	director	Sale	10,776 @ $276.20	$3.0M	−28.6% of holding	−15.6%	not yet — horizon still open	26,886	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Alonso Sanchez Maria del Dado	officer	Sale	1,509 @ $276.20	$417K	−10.6% of holding	−15.6%	not yet — horizon still open	12,672	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20	Tal Boaz	officer	Sale	2,600 @ $199.00	$517K	−3.0% of holding	+47.2%	not yet — horizon still open	83,254	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20	Tal Boaz	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $200.00	$400K	−2.4% of holding	+47.2%	not yet — horizon still open	81,254	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20	Tal Boaz	officer	Sale	500 @ $199.01	$100K	−0.6% of holding	+47.2%	not yet — horizon still open	80,754	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Boroditsky Marc	director	Sale	4,500 @ $217.55	$979K	−10.7% of holding	+19.0%	not yet — horizon still open	37,662	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13	Korolenko Andrey	officer	Sale	500,000 @ $203.24	$101.6M	−46.1% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	585,209	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13	Bunina Elena	director	Sale	5,894 @ $210.00	$1.2M	−35.4% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	10,772	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13	Bunina Elena	director	Sale	5,000 @ $203.18	$1.0M	−23.1% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	16,666	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06	Bunina Elena	director	Sale	5,556 @ $180.00	$1.0M	−17.1% of holding	+16.3%	not yet — horizon still open	26,929	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06	Bunina Elena	director	Sale	5,263 @ $190.00	$1000K	−19.5% of holding	+16.3%	not yet — horizon still open	21,666	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04	Bunina Elena	director	Sale	5,882 @ $170.00	$1000K	−15.3% of holding	+37.6%	not yet — horizon still open	32,485	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15	Boroditsky Marc	director	Sale	4,500 @ $160.10	$720K	−9.6% of holding	+25.7%	not yet — horizon still open	42,162	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14	Bunina Elena	director	Sale	6,250 @ $161.22	$1.0M	−14.0% of holding	+21.1%	not yet — horizon still open	38,367	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

15 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Boroditsky Marc	director	Option exercise	2,000	343,000	Form 4
2026-09-14	Boroditsky Marc	director	Option exercise	5,000	345,000	Form 4
2026-09-14	Boroditsky Marc	director	Option exercise	2,000	2,000	Form 4
2026-09-14	Boroditsky Marc	director	Option exercise	5,000	5,000	Form 4
2026-09-01	Boynton John Wilson IV	director	Award / grant	1,352	417,196	Form 4
2026-09-01	Ryan Charles E	director	Award / grant	1,352	273,885	Form 4
2026-09-01	Weigand Matthew Robert	director	Award / grant	1,352	14,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Radinsky Kira	director	Award / grant	1,352	16,754	Form 4
2026-09-01	Volozh Arkadiy	director	Award / grant	1,352	823,014	Form 4
2026-09-01	Nave Ophir	director	Award / grant	1,352	954,685	Form 4
2026-09-01	Grimme Arne	director	Award / grant	1,352	5,885	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bunina Elena	director	Award / grant	1,352	12,124	Form 4
2026-07-22	Almog Yael	officer	Award / grant	7,793	7,793	Form 4
2026-05-13	Korolenko Andrey	officer	Option exercise	500,000	1,500,000	Form 4
2026-05-13	Korolenko Andrey	officer	Option exercise	500,000	1,085,209	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i