NBHC · TickerCove

NBHCNational Bank Holdings CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.31 · now $41.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NBHC has typically landed between $36.67 and $46.87 — a range of −11.2% to +13.4% from the issuance price $41.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,495 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-09-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$41.31 · 53% of range

$34.76 low$47.08 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.0%

typical move · IQR 11.5%

−11.2%worst (p90)+13.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NBHC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $41.31 (+0.0%)
typical $41.31 (+0.0%)
middle 50% $38.92–$43.7
90% range $36.67–$46.87

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,495 windows spanning 2012-09-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−39.7%	−39.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-24	−35.0%	−39.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-25	−34.4%	−38.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-10-12	+33.8%	+0.0%	+33.8%
2016-11-08	+32.3%	+0.0%	+32.3%
2020-09-23	+32.1%	+0.0%	+32.1%

3,495 overlapping windows · 2012-09-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

57%

−1.5%

n=14

Feb

50%

+1.2%

n=14

Mar

50%

−3.4%

n=14

Apr

43%

+0.2%

n=14

May

57%

+2.1%

n=14

Jun

64%

+2.3%

n=14

Jul

57%

+2.5%

n=14

Aug

50%

+0.5%

n=14

Sep

43%

−0.8%

n=14

Oct

71%

+2.9%

n=14

Nov

79%

+4.5%

n=14

Dec

57%

−0.4%

n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-20	Spring Maria F	director	Sale	963 @ $41.84	$40K	−2.5% of holding	+1.8%	not yet — horizon still open	37,157	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Steinmetz John	officer	Purchase	24,200 @ $41.41	$1.0M	+4.7% of holding	−1.4%	−6.6%	536,504	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11	Spring Maria F	director	Sale	6,214 @ $37.14	$231K	−14.8% of holding	+6.9%	+2.4%	35,663	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27	Spring Maria F	director	Sale	1,167 @ $37.02	$43K	−2.7% of holding	−0.6%	−12.5%	42,573	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-11	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Withheld for tax	31,957	691,590	Form 4
2026-08-11	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Option exercise	37,042	751,183	Form 4
2026-08-11	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Withheld for tax	23,503	727,680	Form 4
2026-08-11	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Option exercise	26,683	714,141	Form 4
2026-08-11	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Option exercise	26,683	0	Form 4
2026-08-11	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Option exercise	37,042	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Steinmetz John	officer	Withheld for tax	3,127	533,377	Form 4
2026-05-07	Spring Maria F	director	Award / grant	3,153	38,120	Form 4
2026-05-07	Gupta Alka	director	Award / grant	3,153	4,906	Form 4
2026-05-07	Dean Robert E	director	Award / grant	3,153	35,538	Form 4
2026-05-07	Doyle Robin Ann	director	Award / grant	3,153	7,720	Form 4
2026-05-07	Sobers Patrick G.	director	Award / grant	3,153	7,893	Form 4
2026-05-07	Joseph Fred J.	director	Award / grant	3,153	27,642	Form 4
2026-05-07	Clermont Ralph W	director	Award / grant	3,620	4,749	Form 4
2026-05-07	ZEILE ART	director	Award / grant	3,153	19,816	Form 4
2026-05-07	McLaughlin Kirk	director	Award / grant	3,153	7,349	Form 4
2026-05-06	Clermont Ralph W	director	Withheld for tax	807	1,129	Form 4
2026-05-06	Gupta Alka	director	Withheld for tax	729	1,753	Form 4
2026-05-06	Spring Maria F	director	Withheld for tax	696	34,967	Form 4
2026-05-06	Joseph Fred J.	director	Withheld for tax	686	24,489	Form 4
2026-05-06	ZEILE ART	director	Withheld for tax	686	16,663	Form 4
2026-05-06	Doyle Robin Ann	director	Withheld for tax	663	4,567	Form 4
2026-05-06	Dean Robert E	director	Withheld for tax	613	32,385	Form 4
2026-05-06	Sobers Patrick G.	director	Withheld for tax	580	4,740	Form 4
2026-05-06	McLaughlin Kirk	director	Withheld for tax	312	4,196	Form 4
2026-04-28	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Withheld for tax	8,006	687,458	Form 4
2026-04-28	Birkans Aldis	officer	Withheld for tax	3,259	261,186	Form 4
2026-04-28	Newfield Richard U Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,981	151,785	Form 4
2026-04-28	PETRUCCI ANGELA NICOLE	officer	Withheld for tax	1,329	23,074	Form 4
2026-04-28	Van Denabeele Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	679	18,552	Form 4
2026-04-28	Sznewajs Daniel L	officer	Withheld for tax	254	5,549	Form 4
2026-04-28	Gooden Emily	officer	Withheld for tax	232	3,857	Form 4
2026-03-17	Sznewajs Daniel L	officer	Award / grant	3,250	5,803	Form 4
2026-03-17	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Award / grant	33,326	695,464	Form 4
2026-03-17	PETRUCCI ANGELA NICOLE	officer	Award / grant	4,178	24,403	Form 4
2026-03-17	Newfield Richard U Jr.	officer	Award / grant	2,781	153,766	Form 4
2026-03-17	Birkans Aldis	officer	Award / grant	15,523	264,445	Form 4
2026-03-17	Van Denabeele Nicole	officer	Award / grant	5,821	19,231	Form 4
2026-03-17	Gooden Emily	officer	Award / grant	517	4,089	Form 4
2026-03-01	LANEY G. TIMOTHY	director	Withheld for tax	2,651	662,138	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i