Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.53 · now $22.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NAVN has typically landed between $15.68 and $31.74 — a range of −30.4% to +40.9% from the issuance price $22.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
199 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-10-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NAVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.85 (+10.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.14–$28.56
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.68–$31.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 199 windows spanning 2025-10-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-06 | −41.1% | −41.1% | +6.2% |
| 2026-01-13 | −40.9% | −41.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | −40.2% | −43.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-24 | +82.0% | +0.0% | +83.1% |
| 2026-03-23 | +75.3% | −4.3% | +75.3% |
| 2026-03-20 | +74.1% | −4.1% | +74.1% |
199 overlapping windows · 2025-10-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Cohen Ariel M. | director | Sale | 168,378 @ $30.14 | $5.1M | −13.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,086,242 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Cohen Ariel M. | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $30.14 | $2.3M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,983 @ $25.36 | $228K | −100.0% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,983 @ $25.36 | $228K | −100.0% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,569 @ $24.65 | $261K | −100.0% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,569 @ $24.65 | $261K | −100.0% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Cohen Ariel M. | director | Sale | 41,530 @ $21.06 | $875K | −3.2% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,254,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Twig Ilan Ezra | director | Sale | 24,726 @ $21.06 | $521K | −3.0% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 805,860 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Sindicich Michael Eric | officer | Sale | 2,176 @ $21.06 | $46K | −0.4% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 548,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 47,984 @ $18.71 | $898K | −2.0% of holding | +31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,310,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 47,984 @ $18.71 | $898K | −2.0% of holding | +31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,310,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 47,984 @ $18.71 | $898K | −2.0% of holding | +31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,310,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,339 @ $19.64 | $576K | −1.3% of holding | +31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,280,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,339 @ $19.64 | $576K | −1.3% of holding | +31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,280,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 29,339 @ $19.64 | $576K | −1.3% of holding | +31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,280,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 398,546 @ $19.13 | $7.6M | −14.5% of holding | +37.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,358,312 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 398,546 @ $19.13 | $7.6M | −14.5% of holding | +37.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,358,312 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 398,546 @ $19.13 | $7.6M | −14.5% of holding | +37.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,358,312 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 573,572 @ $20.19 | $11.6M | −15.3% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,187,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 573,572 @ $20.19 | $11.6M | −15.3% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,187,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 573,572 @ $20.19 | $11.6M | −15.3% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,187,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 430,659 @ $20.62 | $8.9M | −13.5% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,756,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 430,659 @ $20.62 | $8.9M | −13.5% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,756,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 430,659 @ $20.62 | $8.9M | −13.5% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,756,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 822,069 @ $20.06 | $16.5M | −17.9% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,761,172 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 822,069 @ $20.06 | $16.5M | −17.9% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,761,172 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 822,069 @ $20.06 | $16.5M | −17.9% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,761,172 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 197,748 @ $19.77 | $3.9M | −4.1% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,583,241 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 197,748 @ $19.77 | $3.9M | −4.1% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,583,241 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 197,748 @ $19.77 | $3.9M | −4.1% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,583,241 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 83 @ $20.91 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,761,089 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 83 @ $20.91 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,761,089 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 83 @ $20.91 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,761,089 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sindicich Michael Eric | officer | Sale | 51,169 @ $20.20 | $1.0M | −8.5% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 549,251 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Williams Anre D | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $12.00 | $1.2M | +86.9% of holding | +30.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Cohen Ariel M. | director | Sale | 151,007 @ $8.62 | $1.3M | −13.1% of holding | +65.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,003,918 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Twig Ilan Ezra | director | Sale | 49,210 @ $8.62 | $424K | −8.4% of holding | +65.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 538,012 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Sindicich Michael Eric | officer | Sale | 2,206 @ $8.62 | $19K | −0.7% of holding | +65.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 308,308 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Giviskos Anne Mary | officer | Sale | 31,150 @ $9.52 | $297K | −29.4% of holding | +31.9% | +165.0% | 74,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Sindicich Michael Eric | officer | Sale | 9,081 @ $13.85 | $126K | −2.8% of holding | −26.9% | +89.6% | 310,782 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Giviskos Anne Mary | officer | Sale | 2,598 @ $13.85 | $36K | −2.4% of holding | −26.9% | +89.6% | 106,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Sindicich Michael Eric | officer | Sale | 268 @ $14.03 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −26.9% | +89.6% | 310,514 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Giviskos Anne Mary | officer | Sale | 77 @ $13.80 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −26.9% | +89.6% | 108,688 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund I, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 46,337 @ $18.11 | $839K | +0.6% of holding | −40.1% | +33.5% | 8,346,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund III, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 46,337 @ $18.11 | $839K | +0.6% of holding | −40.1% | +33.5% | 8,346,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Andreessen Horowitz Fund V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 46,337 @ $18.11 | $839K | +0.6% of holding | −40.1% | +33.5% | 8,346,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A | director | Purchase | 46,337 @ $18.11 | $839K | +0.6% of holding | −40.1% | +33.5% | 8,346,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund III, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 308,188 @ $16.74 | $5.2M | +3.9% of holding | −39.0% | +41.5% | 8,300,455 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund I, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 308,188 @ $16.74 | $5.2M | +3.9% of holding | −39.0% | +41.5% | 8,300,455 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A | director | Purchase | 308,188 @ $16.74 | $5.2M | +3.9% of holding | −39.0% | +41.5% | 8,300,455 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Andreessen Horowitz Fund V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 308,188 @ $16.74 | $5.2M | +3.9% of holding | −39.0% | +41.5% | 8,300,455 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund III, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 202,729 @ $15.77 | $3.2M | +2.6% of holding | −33.1% | +44.8% | 7,992,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Andreessen Horowitz Fund V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 202,729 @ $15.77 | $3.2M | +2.6% of holding | −33.1% | +44.8% | 7,992,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund I, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 202,729 @ $15.77 | $3.2M | +2.6% of holding | −33.1% | +44.8% | 7,992,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A | director | Purchase | 202,729 @ $15.77 | $3.2M | +2.6% of holding | −33.1% | +44.8% | 7,992,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Andreessen Horowitz Fund V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 466,058 @ $16.27 | $7.6M | +6.4% of holding | −37.3% | +57.7% | 7,789,538 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund I, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 466,058 @ $16.27 | $7.6M | +6.4% of holding | −37.3% | +57.7% | 7,789,538 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund III, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 466,058 @ $16.27 | $7.6M | +6.4% of holding | −37.3% | +57.7% | 7,789,538 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A | director | Purchase | 466,058 @ $16.27 | $7.6M | +6.4% of holding | −37.3% | +57.7% | 7,789,538 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A | director | Purchase | 99,502 @ $16.16 | $1.6M | +1.4% of holding | −24.2% | +38.0% | 7,323,480 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
204 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Cohen Ariel M. | director | Conversion | 75,000 | 688,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Cohen Ariel M. | director | Conversion | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A | director | Award / grant | 657 | 11,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Liang Clara | director | Award / grant | 438 | 10,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Williams Anre D | director | Award / grant | 412 | 226,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Kaveripatnam Sandesh | director | Award / grant | 394 | 46,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ZEEV OREN | director | Award / grant | 394 | 67,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | ZEEV OREN | director | Other acquisition | 452,949 | 3,623,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 401,655 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 401,655 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,894,598 | 10,736,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 670,005 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | ZEEV OREN | director | Other acquisition | 1,576,676 | 12,613,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 8,983 | 8,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 192,885 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 401,655 | 401,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 401,655 | 401,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,979,102 | 16,881,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,894,598 | 10,736,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 670,005 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | ZEEV OREN | director | Other acquisition | 1,082,303 | 9,740,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 670,005 | 670,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 670,005 | 670,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | ZEEV OREN | director | Other acquisition | 567,965 | 1,135,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 192,885 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 8,983 | 8,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,979,102 | 16,881,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | ZEEV OREN | director | Other acquisition | 567,965 | 567,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | ZEEV OREN | director | Other acquisition | 452,949 | 4,076,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | ZEEV OREN | director | Other acquisition | 1,576,676 | 14,190,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | KOUREY MICHAEL R | director | Award / grant | 9,959 | 253,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Liang Clara | director | Award / grant | 9,959 | 9,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A | director | Award / grant | 9,959 | 10,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Award / grant | 9,959 | 9,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | ZEEV OREN | director | Award / grant | 9,959 | 67,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Kaveripatnam Sandesh | director | Award / grant | 9,959 | 45,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Williams Anre D | director | Award / grant | 9,959 | 225,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Weiss Shai | director | Award / grant | 4,150 | 37,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select II, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,228,940 | 12,630,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,504,825 | 19,860,677 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.