NAVI · TickerCove

NAVINavient Corporationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.74 · now $9.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NAVI has typically landed between $8.24 and $11.13 — a range of −15.4% to +14.3% from the issuance price $9.74.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,089 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-04-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$9.74 · 43% of range

$7.29 low$13.04 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.0%

typical move · IQR 12.3%

−15.4%worst (p90)+14.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

1 buys · 2 sells · 2 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NAVI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $9.74 (+0.0%)
typical $9.65 (-1.0%)
middle 50% $9.05–$10.24
90% range $8.24–$11.13

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,089 windows spanning 2014-04-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−64.5%	−64.5%	+1.0%
2020-02-14	−58.6%	−58.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−57.9%	−64.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+50.8%	+0.0%	+65.6%
2016-02-10	+42.2%	−1.5%	+42.2%
2016-02-11	+41.3%	+0.0%	+44.4%

3,089 overlapping windows · 2014-04-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.8%

n=12

Feb

58%

−0.2%

n=12

Mar

33%

−2.9%

n=12

Apr

67%

+3.6%

n=12

May

46%

−0.6%

n=13

Jun

54%

+2.5%

n=13

Jul

69%

+3.1%

n=13

Aug

62%

+0.5%

n=13

Sep

31%

−2.2%

n=13

Oct

33%

−2.7%

n=12

Nov

83%

+7.0%

n=12

Dec

58%

−0.6%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Disposition	63,881	393,243	Form 4
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Withheld for tax	43,482	457,124	Form 4
2026-06-04	KLANE LARRY A	director	Award / grant	18,018	82,436	Form 4
2026-06-04	CABRAL ANNA ESCOBEDO	director	Award / grant	18,018	84,915	Form 4
2026-06-04	ARNOLD FREDERICK	director	Award / grant	18,018	98,885	Form 4
2026-06-04	Lawson Michael A	director	Award / grant	18,018	55,928	Form 4
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Award / grant	18,018	411,261	Form 4
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Withheld for tax	14,676	393,243	Form 4
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Award / grant	36,235	407,919	Form 4
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Option exercise	107,363	500,606	Form 4
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Option exercise	107,363	0	Form 4
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Option exercise	107,363	500,606	Form 4
2026-06-04	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Option exercise	107,363	0	Form 4
2026-05-22	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	1,125	251,859	Form 4
2026-05-22	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Withheld for tax	816	353,517	Form 4
2026-03-04	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Award / grant	73,444	350,947	Form 4
2026-03-04	STANDISH TROY	officer	Award / grant	51,843	250,658	Form 4
2026-03-02	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Withheld for tax	4,838	277,503	Form 4
2026-03-02	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	1,783	198,815	Form 4
2026-02-09	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Withheld for tax	2,979	289,964	Form 4
2026-02-09	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	1,810	203,456	Form 4
2026-02-07	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Withheld for tax	5,167	292,943	Form 4
2026-02-07	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	3,059	205,266	Form 4
2026-02-06	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Withheld for tax	2,962	298,110	Form 4
2026-02-06	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	893	208,325	Form 4
2025-12-31	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Withheld for tax	24,075	546,402	Form 4
2025-11-28	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	769	208,179	Form 4
2025-07-07	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Award / grant	102,761	102,761	Form 4
2025-07-03	YOWAN DAVID L.	director	Withheld for tax	23,501	560,568	Form 4
2025-05-23	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	1,057	206,936	Form 4
2025-05-23	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Withheld for tax	789	295,709	Form 4
2025-05-12	CABRAL ANNA ESCOBEDO	director	Other acquisition	11,231	60,180	Form 4
2025-05-12	CABRAL ANNA ESCOBEDO	director	Other acquisition	11,231	63,452	Form 4
2025-03-03	Fisher Joe	officer	Withheld for tax	7,096	319,277	Form 4
2025-03-03	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Withheld for tax	4,978	294,886	Form 4
2025-03-03	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	2,258	206,969	Form 4
2025-03-03	GREEN DAVID S	officer	Withheld for tax	1,146	152,321	Form 4
2025-02-09	Fisher Joe	officer	Withheld for tax	5,917	345,260	Form 4
2025-02-09	HAUBER STEPHEN M	officer	Withheld for tax	2,840	313,114	Form 4
2025-02-09	STANDISH TROY	officer	Withheld for tax	1,713	215,334	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Greg Gianforte	Senate	purchase	2019-03-06	2019-01-28	$50–100K
Greg Gianforte	Senate	sale	2019-01-23	2018-12-21	$15–50K
Robert P Corker Jr	Senate	sale	2014-06-10	2014-05-20	$1–15K

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i