NATR · TickerCove

NATRNature's Sunshine Products, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.09 · now $13.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NATR has typically landed between $11.00 and $15.59 — a range of −16.0% to +19.1% from the issuance price $13.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,311 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-06-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$13.09 · 0% of range

$13.07 low$27.8 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.1%

typical move · IQR 13.6%

−16.0%worst (p90)+19.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NATR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $13.09 (+0.0%)
typical $13.1 (+0.1%)
middle 50% $12.21–$13.99
90% range $11–$15.59

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,311 windows spanning 2009-06-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−41.5%	−41.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−36.3%	−40.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−35.4%	−35.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2011-05-05	+80.9%	+0.0%	+80.9%
2011-05-23	+74.7%	+0.0%	+74.7%
2011-05-04	+71.2%	−0.9%	+71.2%

4,311 overlapping windows · 2009-06-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−0.5%

n=17

Feb

47%

−1.3%

n=17

Mar

53%

+2.3%

n=17

Apr

35%

+3.2%

n=17

May

53%

+3.1%

n=17

Jun

53%

+1.8%

n=17

Jul

39%

−0.9%

n=18

Aug

67%

+2.6%

n=18

Sep

28%

−2.9%

n=18

Oct

53%

+3.7%

n=17

Nov

76%

+8.7%

n=17

Dec

35%

−2.1%

n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-17	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	20,000 @ $14.69	$294K	+1.0% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,944,486	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	16,928 @ $15.80	$267K	+0.9% of holding	−12.0%	not yet — horizon still open	1,901,414	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	13,072 @ $15.78	$206K	+0.7% of holding	−12.0%	not yet — horizon still open	1,914,486	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	10,000 @ $16.01	$160K	+0.5% of holding	−12.0%	not yet — horizon still open	1,924,486	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	876 @ $15.64	$14K	+0.0% of holding	−12.0%	not yet — horizon still open	1,884,486	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-07	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	30,000 @ $16.68	$500K	+1.6% of holding	−14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,853,610	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	20,000 @ $16.69	$334K	+1.1% of holding	−14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,873,610	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	20,000 @ $16.55	$331K	+1.1% of holding	−14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,818,610	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	10,000 @ $16.72	$167K	+0.5% of holding	−14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,883,610	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	10,000 @ $16.46	$165K	+0.6% of holding	−14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,797,610	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	5,000 @ $16.62	$83K	+0.3% of holding	−14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,823,610	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	1,000 @ $16.48	$16K	+0.1% of holding	−14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,798,610	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-06	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	2,513 @ $16.75	$42K	+0.1% of holding	−31.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,787,610	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-06	PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	2,000 @ $16.35	$33K	+0.1% of holding	−31.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,785,097	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-12	Herbert Kevin R.	officer	Sale	1,134 @ $20.63	$23K	−2.2% of holding	+0.4%	not yet — horizon still open	49,732	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12	Herbert Kevin R.	officer	Sale	866 @ $20.75	$18K	−1.7% of holding	+0.4%	not yet — horizon still open	48,866	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-05	Yates Bryant J	officer	Sale	11,968 @ $19.90	$238K	−13.4% of holding	+5.0%	not yet — horizon still open	77,446	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Norman Daniel C	officer	Sale	9,713 @ $20.64	$200K	−17.0% of holding	+7.0%	not yet — horizon still open	47,276	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-21	Brower Nathan G	officer	Sale	12,015 @ $21.84	$262K	−21.7% of holding	−3.9%	not yet — horizon still open	43,438	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13	Yates Bryant J	officer	Sale	19,516 @ $24.35	$475K	−18.6% of holding	+4.3%	−60.6%	85,154	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13	Norman Daniel C	officer	Sale	15,383 @ $24.52	$377K	−21.6% of holding	+4.3%	−60.6%	55,693	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13	Lanoy Jonathan David	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $24.70	$99K	−7.9% of holding	+4.3%	−60.6%	46,405	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12	Yates Bryant J	officer	Sale	1,700 @ $22.29	$38K	−1.7% of holding	−3.7%	−22.4%	98,604	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-18	Lanoy Jonathan David	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $20.45	$102K	−9.8% of holding	+5.8%	−8.2%	46,233	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14	Brower Nathan G	officer	Sale	3,800 @ $20.81	$79K	−7.5% of holding	+4.7%	−7.8%	46,735	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-12	Norman Daniel C	officer	Sale	8,884 @ $20.46	$182K	−11.8% of holding	+10.1%	−1.4%	66,636	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-08-29	Yates Bryant J	officer	Sale	4,672 @ $16.71	$78K	−4.6% of holding	−11.5%	+54.0%	97,498	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-08-26	Yates Bryant J	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $16.77	$84K	−4.7% of holding	−3.9%	+59.2%	102,170	Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-08-13	Brower Nathan G	officer	Sale	9,996 @ $16.54	$165K	−17.2% of holding	−0.7%	+51.9%	48,277	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13	Lanoy Jonathan David	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $16.51	$83K	−9.1% of holding	−0.7%	+51.9%	50,051	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-27	Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,854,607 @ $11.46	$32.7M	−100.0% of holding	−2.3%	+36.1%	0	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

175 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Perkins Ruth Ann	officer	Award / grant	39,384	39,384	Form 4
2026-09-02	Perkins Ruth Ann	officer	Award / grant	36,049	75,433	Form 4
2026-09-01	Lanoy Jonathan David	officer	Award / grant	7,210	55,602	Form 4
2026-06-26	Herbert Kevin R.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,976	46,890	Form 4
2026-05-15	Herbert Kevin R.	officer	Award / grant	8,326	50,866	Form 4
2026-05-15	Lanoy Jonathan David	officer	Award / grant	6,107	48,392	Form 4
2026-05-15	Norman Daniel C	officer	Award / grant	11,377	56,989	Form 4
2026-05-15	Roering Tess	director	Award / grant	4,500	34,427	Form 4
2026-05-15	Romanzi Kenneth G.	director	Award / grant	33,753	143,999	Form 4
2026-05-15	Fasching Steven J.	director	Award / grant	4,500	15,369	Form 4
2026-05-15	May Katie	director	Award / grant	4,500	14,266	Form 4
2026-05-15	Wissmiller Heidi	director	Award / grant	4,500	41,667	Form 4
2026-05-15	Yang Rong	director	Award / grant	4,500	34,749	Form 4
2026-05-15	Yates Bryant J	officer	Award / grant	8,753	89,414	Form 4
2026-05-15	Fritz Erich A	officer	Award / grant	9,226	20,889	Form 4
2026-05-15	Fuller Kevin Gregory	officer	Award / grant	8,984	31,548	Form 4
2026-05-15	Straus Robert D	director	Award / grant	4,500	56,514	Form 4
2026-05-15	Kopf Curtis	director	Award / grant	4,500	34,427	Form 4
2026-05-15	Brower Nathan G	officer	Award / grant	9,001	55,453	Form 4
2026-05-05	Romanzi Kenneth G.	director	Withheld for tax	5,753	110,246	Form 4
2026-05-05	Jones Leslie Shane	officer	Withheld for tax	1,756	103,264	Form 4
2026-05-05	Jones Leslie Shane	officer	Withheld for tax	1,090	104,658	Form 4
2026-05-05	Yates Bryant J	officer	Withheld for tax	784	79,499	Form 4
2026-05-05	Norman Daniel C	officer	Withheld for tax	784	44,101	Form 4
2026-05-05	Norman Daniel C	officer	Withheld for tax	707	42,169	Form 4
2026-05-05	Yates Bryant J	officer	Withheld for tax	707	77,567	Form 4
2026-05-05	Brower Nathan G	officer	Withheld for tax	645	45,367	Form 4
2026-05-05	Norman Daniel C	officer	Withheld for tax	613	45,612	Form 4
2026-05-05	Brower Nathan G	officer	Withheld for tax	582	43,777	Form 4
2026-05-05	Fuller Kevin Gregory	officer	Withheld for tax	573	22,564	Form 4
2026-05-05	Yates Bryant J	officer	Withheld for tax	472	80,661	Form 4
2026-05-05	Fritz Erich A	officer	Withheld for tax	469	11,663	Form 4
2026-05-05	Lanoy Jonathan David	officer	Withheld for tax	452	41,479	Form 4
2026-05-05	Brower Nathan G	officer	Withheld for tax	441	46,452	Form 4
2026-05-05	Herbert Kevin R.	officer	Withheld for tax	366	42,540	Form 4
2026-05-05	Lanoy Jonathan David	officer	Withheld for tax	327	42,285	Form 4
2026-05-05	Lanoy Jonathan David	officer	Withheld for tax	133	40,366	Form 4
2026-05-05	Yates Bryant J	officer	Option exercise	1,634	81,133	Form 4
2026-05-05	Fuller Kevin Gregory	officer	Option exercise	1,677	23,137	Form 4
2026-05-05	Fritz Erich A	officer	Option exercise	1,372	12,132	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i