NATL · TickerCove

NATLNCR Atleos CorporationTechnology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.08 · now $46.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NATL has typically landed between $40.69 and $55.38 — a range of −11.7% to +20.2% from the issuance price $46.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

678 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-12-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$46.08 · 85% of range

$34.13 low$48.13 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.9%

typical move · IQR 11.1%

−11.7%worst (p90)+20.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NATL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $46.08 (+0.0%)
typical $46.49 (+0.9%)
middle 50% $43.93–$49.04
90% range $40.69–$55.38

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 678 windows spanning 2023-12-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-02-06	−20.6%	−20.6%	+0.0%
2025-02-10	−19.4%	−19.5%	+0.0%
2025-01-31	−19.4%	−19.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-07-24	+50.3%	+0.0%	+50.3%
2025-07-29	+48.8%	−0.4%	+48.8%
2025-07-30	+47.7%	+0.0%	+49.4%

678 overlapping windows · 2023-12-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

−5.3%

n=3

Feb

33%

+1.7%

n=3

Mar

−6.0%

n=3

Apr

100%

+2.9%

n=3

May

67%

+11.7%

n=3

Jun

33%

+0.7%

n=3

Jul

100%

+11.5%

n=3

Aug

33%

+5.4%

n=3

Sep

33%

−0.2%

n=3

Oct

−7.2%

n=2

Nov

100%

+12.9%

n=2

Dec

100%

+3.1%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-19	Frymire Michelle M	director	Sale	8,786 @ $35.02	$308K	−44.8% of holding	+7.1%	+13.3%	10,838	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06	Reece Joseph E	director	Purchase	4,000 @ $25.59	$102K	+12.3% of holding	+6.5%	+41.8%	36,481	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-06	DuVall Andrew R	officer	Sale	450 @ $33.48	$15K	−2.7% of holding	+1.6%	−15.2%	16,176	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	Reece Joseph E	director	Award / grant	1,325	12,463	Form 4
2026-05-21	Almeida Odilon	director	Award / grant	4,351	23,975	Form 4
2026-05-21	Baker Mary Ellen	director	Award / grant	4,351	23,975	Form 4
2026-05-21	Niederauer Duncan L	director	Award / grant	4,351	11,472	Form 4
2026-05-21	Natoli Frank A	director	Award / grant	4,351	23,975	Form 4
2026-05-21	von Gillern Jeffry H.	director	Award / grant	4,351	23,975	Form 4
2026-05-21	Reece Joseph E	director	Award / grant	4,351	47,953	Form 4
2026-03-31	Reece Joseph E	director	Award / grant	1,205	11,138	Form 4
2026-03-10	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Award / grant	219,915	542,068	Form 4
2026-03-10	Mackinnon Stuart	officer	Award / grant	58,213	161,848	Form 4
2026-03-10	Wamser R Andrew Jr	officer	Award / grant	45,277	142,777	Form 4
2026-03-10	NUNEZ RICARDO J	officer	Award / grant	34,928	65,226	Form 4
2026-03-10	Burson Andrea Richards	officer	Award / grant	19,404	33,117	Form 4
2026-03-10	Hornfeck Traci	officer	Award / grant	8,977	36,714	Form 4
2026-01-30	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Option exercise	28,817	335,150	Form 4
2026-01-30	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Option exercise	28,817	0	Form 4
2026-01-30	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Disposition	25,026	28,817	Form 4
2026-01-30	Mackinnon Stuart	officer	Option exercise	17,183	0	Form 4
2026-01-30	Mackinnon Stuart	officer	Option exercise	17,183	110,397	Form 4
2026-01-30	Mackinnon Stuart	officer	Disposition	14,923	17,183	Form 4
2026-01-30	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Withheld for tax	12,997	322,153	Form 4
2026-01-30	Mackinnon Stuart	officer	Withheld for tax	6,762	103,635	Form 4
2025-12-31	Reece Joseph E	director	Award / grant	1,378	9,933	Form 4
2025-12-31	Burson Andrea Richards	officer	Withheld for tax	445	13,713	Form 4
2025-12-19	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Withheld for tax	17,084	321,267	Form 4
2025-12-19	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Withheld for tax	14,934	306,333	Form 4
2025-12-19	Mackinnon Stuart	officer	Withheld for tax	4,066	97,075	Form 4
2025-12-19	Mackinnon Stuart	officer	Withheld for tax	3,861	93,214	Form 4
2025-12-19	Wamser R Andrew Jr	officer	Withheld for tax	2,215	97,500	Form 4
2025-12-19	NUNEZ RICARDO J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,105	30,298	Form 4
2025-12-19	NUNEZ RICARDO J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,073	32,403	Form 4
2025-12-19	Burson Andrea Richards	officer	Withheld for tax	508	14,158	Form 4
2025-12-19	Burson Andrea Richards	officer	Withheld for tax	348	14,666	Form 4
2025-11-10	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Withheld for tax	122,388	388,674	Form 4
2025-11-10	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Option exercise	172,711	511,062	Form 4
2025-11-10	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Disposition	50,323	338,351	Form 4
2025-11-10	OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES	director	Option exercise	172,711	0	Form 4
2025-09-30	Reece Joseph E	director	Award / grant	1,336	8,555	Form 4
2025-06-30	Reece Joseph E	director	Award / grant	1,840	7,219	Form 4
2025-05-21	Frymire Michelle M	director	Award / grant	7,121	19,624	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i