Issued 2026-09-16 at $98.67 · now $98.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NATH has typically landed between $89.39 and $110.76 — a range of −9.4% to +12.3% from the issuance price $98.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($98.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NATH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $98.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $98.67 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $99.21 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $94.89–$103.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $89.39–$110.76
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-19 | −29.5% | −29.5% | +0.9% |
| 2015-04-02 | −28.1% | −29.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −26.0% | −29.1% | +1.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2017-08-28 | +34.3% | +0.0% | +34.3% |
| 2017-10-19 | +34.1% | +0.0% | +34.1% |
| 2025-01-14 | +30.8% | +0.0% | +30.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-11 | GENSON BRIAN S | director | Sale | 900 @ $87.00 | $78K | −11.2% of holding | +14.2% | +11.7% | 7,142 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | GENSON BRIAN S | director | Sale | 100 @ $87.44 | $9K | −1.4% of holding | +14.2% | +11.7% | 7,042 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
12 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Levine Andrew M | director | Withheld for tax | 6,744 | 3,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Levine Andrew M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Levine Andrew M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | LORBER HOWARD M | director | Withheld for tax | 5,105 | 719,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | LORBER HOWARD M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | LORBER HOWARD M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 724,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | LORBER HOWARD M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 724,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | PETROCELLI ATTILIO | director | Gift | 21,707 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-08 | LORBER HOWARD M | director | Withheld for tax | 5,105 | 714,626 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-08 | LORBER HOWARD M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-08 | LORBER HOWARD M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 719,731 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-08 | LORBER HOWARD M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 719,731 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.