NAKA · TickerCove

NAKANakamoto Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.20 · now $8.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NAKA has typically landed between $4.30 and $16.96 — a range of −47.5% to +106.8% from the issuance price $8.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

550 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-05-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.2 · 9% of range

$3.37 low$60 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−13.4%

typical move · IQR 43.2%

−47.5%worst (p90)+106.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NAKA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.2 (+0.0%)
typical $7.1 (-13.4%)
middle 50% $5.33–$8.87
90% range $4.3–$16.96

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 550 windows spanning 2024-05-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-08-13	−90.6%	−90.6%	+13.4%
2025-08-14	−90.0%	−91.7%	+0.0%
2025-08-15	−89.5%	−90.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-04-21	+1596.6%	+0.0%	+1596.6%
2025-04-24	+1317.0%	+0.0%	+1363.7%
2025-04-23	+1306.2%	−3.9%	+1306.2%

550 overlapping windows · 2024-05-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+2.8%

n=2

Feb

50%

−0.8%

n=2

Mar

−7.0%

n=2

Apr

50%

−1.8%

n=2

May

50%

+545.5%

n=2

Jun

−28.2%

n=3

Jul

33%

−21.7%

n=3

Aug

33%

+0.9%

n=3

Sep

33%

−27.8%

n=3

Oct

−8.4%

n=2

Nov

50%

−15.2%

n=2

Dec

50%

−11.9%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-20	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	4,852 @ $6.27	$30K	+0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,185,246	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	32,134 @ $5.59	$180K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	32,134	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $5.15	$5K	+0.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,179,476	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $5.14	$5K	+0.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,178,476	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $5.11	$5K	+0.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,177,476	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $5.10	$5K	+0.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,176,476	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	918 @ $5.08	$5K	+0.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,180,394	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-28	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	48,000 @ $5.59	$268K	+1.5% of holding	−23.5%	not yet — horizon still open	3,175,476	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-28	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	7,115 @ $5.79	$41K	+0.2% of holding	−23.5%	not yet — horizon still open	3,127,476	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-27	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	79,104 @ $4.68	$370K	+2.6% of holding	−26.3%	not yet — horizon still open	3,094,632	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	25,729 @ $5.33	$137K	+0.8% of holding	−26.3%	not yet — horizon still open	3,120,361	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26	Bailey David F	director	Purchase	31,500 @ $5.58	$176K	+1.1% of holding	−26.1%	not yet — horizon still open	3,015,528	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	Gendron Teresa S	director	Award / grant	70,821	136,437	Form 4
2026-08-27	Dalton John Merritt	officer	Award / grant	42,492	81,862	Form 4
2026-08-25	Bailey Calli Sullivan	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	3,844	2,468,300	Form 4
2026-08-21	YUSKO MARK W	director	Award / grant	10,623	13,442	Form 4
2026-08-21	Bailey David F	director	Other acquisition	3,744	3,181,502	Form 4
2026-08-21	Bailey David F	director	Other acquisition	3	3,181,505	Form 4
2026-08-21	Bailey David F	director	Award / grant	70,821	3,252,326	Form 4
2026-08-21	Bailey David F	director	Award / grant	62,500	62,500	Form 4
2026-08-21	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Other acquisition	230	521,086	Form 4
2026-08-21	Fabiano Amanda	director	Award / grant	70,821	174,204	Form 4
2026-08-21	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Other acquisition	3	521,089	Form 4
2026-08-21	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	56,657	577,746	Form 4
2026-08-21	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	250,000	885,544	Form 4
2026-08-21	Blackburn Charles Phillip	director	Award / grant	10,623	13,442	Form 4
2026-08-21	McNulty Perianne Boring	director	Award / grant	10,623	13,442	Form 4
2026-08-21	Xethalis Gregory Elias	director	Award / grant	10,623	13,442	Form 4
2026-03-12	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	600,000	20,852,678	Form 4
2026-02-20	Bailey David F	director	Award / grant	108,200,628	119,361,200	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	17,841,993	20,252,858	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,470,803	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Creighton Andrew John	officer	Award / grant	1,685,500	1,685,500	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	4,118,006	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	3,596,392	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	4,118,006	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,470,803	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	3,596,392	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,745,337	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	12,491,284	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,745,337	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	12,491,284	25,421,822	Form 4
2026-02-20	Creighton Andrew John	officer	Award / grant	1,685,500	1,685,500	Form 4
2025-12-16	Gendron Teresa S	director	Award / grant	2,624,671	2,624,671	Form 4
2025-12-16	Dalton John Merritt	officer	Award / grant	1,574,803	1,574,803	Form 4
2025-09-22	Barrera Jared	officer	Award / grant	6,400	22,242	Form 4
2025-09-22	Pickett Timothy	director	Award / grant	37,593	136,618	Form 4
2025-09-22	Pickett Timothy	director	Award / grant	26,129	162,747	Form 4
2025-09-22	Pickett Timothy	director	Award / grant	18,378	191,271	Form 4
2025-09-22	McNulty Perianne Boring	director	Award / grant	112,781	112,781	Form 4
2025-09-22	YUSKO MARK W	director	Award / grant	112,781	2,212,781	Form 4
2025-09-22	Evans Tyler Matthew	director	Award / grant	601,503	3,012,188	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i