Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.00 · now $3.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NAGE has typically landed between $2.21 and $4.18 — a range of −26.4% to +39.3% from the issuance price $3.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,543 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-06-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NAGE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.88 (-4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.6–$3.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.21–$4.18
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-19 | −92.0% | −92.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-22 | −92.0% | −92.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-09 | −89.8% | −89.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-10 | +610.0% | +0.0% | +610.0% |
| 2008-12-01 | +445.5% | +0.0% | +545.5% |
| 2008-11-28 | +445.5% | +0.0% | +545.5% |
4,543 overlapping windows · 2008-06-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | Pamir Ozan | officer | Purchase | 4,465 @ $6.81 | $30K | +153.6% of holding | −8.7% | −56.4% | 7,372 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Pamir Ozan | officer | Purchase | 2,220 @ $6.85 | $15K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.7% | −56.4% | 2,220 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Pamir Ozan | officer | Award / grant | 4,255 | 11,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lopez Carlos Luis | officer | Award / grant | 2,314 | 4,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fried Robert N | director | Award / grant | 1,106 | 1,060,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Ng Wang Yu Gary | director | Award / grant | 31,746 | 31,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | YU Wing Tak Wendy | director | Award / grant | 31,746 | 31,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Patrick Kristin | director | Award / grant | 31,746 | 31,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Shahbazi Hamed | director | Award / grant | 31,746 | 31,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Rubin Steven D | director | Award / grant | 31,746 | 31,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cohen Ann | director | Award / grant | 31,746 | 31,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Jaksch Frank L Jr | director | Award / grant | 31,746 | 31,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fried Robert N | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 1,058,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fried Robert N | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Lopez Carlos Luis | officer | Award / grant | 41,420 | 41,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Fried Robert N | director | Award / grant | 503,937 | 503,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Pamir Ozan | officer | Award / grant | 62,131 | 62,131 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Shahbazi Hamed | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | YU Wing Tak Wendy | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Patrick Kristin | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Jaksch Frank L Jr | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Cohen Ann | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Ng Wang Yu Gary | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Rubin Steven D | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-09 | Fried Robert N | director | Option exercise | 66,667 | 1,038,981 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-09 | Fried Robert N | director | Option exercise | 66,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.