Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.85 · now $3.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NABL has typically landed between $3.12 and $4.51 — a range of −19.0% to +17.1% from the issuance price $3.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,276 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NABL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.79 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.53–$4.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.12–$4.51
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-26 | −35.2% | −35.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | −34.7% | −37.1% | +4.5% |
| 2026-04-16 | −33.7% | −35.0% | +8.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-17 | +60.7% | −1.6% | +60.7% |
| 2026-06-18 | +53.3% | −2.0% | +60.1% |
| 2026-06-16 | +49.5% | −6.0% | +49.5% |
1,276 overlapping windows · 2021-07-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-19 | Adler Michael I | officer | Sale | 31,728 @ $7.72 | $245K | −6.3% of holding | +4.7% | −46.7% | 468,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Johnson Ann | director | Sale | 34,568 @ $7.70 | $266K | −48.0% of holding | +0.7% | −39.8% | 37,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Rosa Russell | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pagliuca John | director | Withheld for tax | 21,323 | 1,949,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | O'Brien Tim James | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,713 | 765,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Adler Michael I | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,586 | 600,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Anastos Peter C | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,136 | 458,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pai Kathleen | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,669 | 618,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Widmann Michael A. | director | Award / grant | 52,173 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BOCK WILLIAM G | director | Award / grant | 52,173 | 168,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | SLTA IV (GP), L.L.C. | director | Award / grant | 104,346 | 352,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Lewis Darryl M. | director | Award / grant | 52,173 | 147,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | McMartin James Cameron | director | Award / grant | 52,173 | 147,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Pulvermueller Patrick Michael | director | Award / grant | 52,173 | 99,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Pagliuca John | director | Withheld for tax | 21,323 | 1,970,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | O'Brien Tim James | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,713 | 775,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Colletti Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,521 | 553,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Adler Michael I | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,585 | 605,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Anastos Peter C | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,136 | 461,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Pai Kathleen | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,669 | 621,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Stagno Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,879 | 71,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Adler Michael I | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 609,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | O'Brien Tim James | officer | Award / grant | 142,500 | 784,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Pai Kathleen | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 624,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Stagno Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 73,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Anastos Peter C | officer | Award / grant | 72,500 | 464,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Colletti Frank | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 560,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Pagliuca John | director | Award / grant | 300,000 | 1,991,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pagliuca John | director | Withheld for tax | 73,217 | 1,725,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pagliuca John | director | Withheld for tax | 33,457 | 1,691,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Colletti Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,069 | 508,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | O'Brien Tim James | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,555 | 656,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Colletti Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,058 | 490,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | O'Brien Tim James | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,179 | 642,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Adler Michael I | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,468 | 510,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Anastos Peter C | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,137 | 399,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Adler Michael I | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,089 | 499,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pai Kathleen | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,346 | 550,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Anastos Peter C | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,992 | 391,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pai Kathleen | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,805 | 544,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Pagliuca John | director | Withheld for tax | 21,209 | 1,798,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Colletti Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,941 | 535,050 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.