MZTI · TickerCove

MZTIThe Marzetti CompanyConsumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $102.96 · now $102.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MZTI has typically landed between $90.73 and $114.44 — a range of −11.9% to +11.2% from the issuance price $102.96.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($102.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$102.96 · 2% of range

$101.2 low$177.74 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.3%

typical move · IQR 9.1%

−11.9%worst (p90)+11.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MZTI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $102.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $102.96 (+0.0%)
typical $102.65 (-0.3%)
middle 50% $97.95–$107.35
90% range $90.73–$114.44

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-04-21	−23.4%	−23.7%	+0.0%
2008-09-26	−22.7%	−22.7%	+0.0%
2026-04-09	−22.3%	−22.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-10-07	+32.4%	+0.0%	+32.4%
2022-10-10	+30.4%	+0.0%	+30.4%
2022-07-29	+30.0%	+0.0%	+30.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

30%

−1.8%

n=20

Feb

70%

+1.7%

n=20

Mar

80%

+2.0%

n=20

Apr

40%

−1.7%

n=20

May

45%

−1.6%

n=20

Jun

70%

+1.9%

n=20

Jul

60%

+0.5%

n=20

Aug

65%

+0.9%

n=20

Sep

55%

−0.4%

n=20

Oct

60%

+2.1%

n=20

Nov

75%

+3.1%

n=20

Dec

65%

+2.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	Viso Luis	officer	Sale	997 @ $100.81	$101K	−48.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,047	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11	Viso Luis	officer	Sale	1,221 @ $109.31	$133K	−38.8% of holding	−4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,924	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10	Pigott, Thomas K.	officer	Purchase	900 @ $109.01	$98K	+5.3% of holding	+0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	17,779	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-25	Ciesinski David Alan	director	Withheld for tax	1,611	59,522	Form 4
2026-08-25	Pigott, Thomas K.	officer	Withheld for tax	298	18,011	Form 4
2026-08-25	Bird Kristin	officer	Withheld for tax	180	6,285	Form 4
2026-08-25	Viso Luis	officer	Withheld for tax	152	2,044	Form 4
2026-08-25	Pigott, Thomas K.	officer	Award / grant	1,026	18,309	Form 4
2026-08-25	Bird Kristin	officer	Award / grant	623	6,465	Form 4
2026-08-25	Viso Luis	officer	Award / grant	527	2,196	Form 4
2026-08-25	Ciesinski David Alan	director	Award / grant	4,177	61,133	Form 4
2026-08-18	Carter Mark	officer	Award / grant	1,947	1,947	Form 4
2026-08-18	Berman Tanya	officer	Award / grant	1,947	1,947	Form 4
2026-08-18	Carter Mark	officer	Award / grant	4,326	4,326	Form 4
2026-08-18	Bird Kristin	officer	Award / grant	1,947	1,947	Form 4
2026-08-18	Pigott, Thomas K.	officer	Award / grant	3,504	3,504	Form 4
2026-08-18	Ciesinski David Alan	director	Award / grant	14,406	14,406	Form 4
2026-08-15	Ciesinski David Alan	director	Withheld for tax	2,055	56,956	Form 4
2026-08-15	Pigott, Thomas K.	officer	Withheld for tax	496	17,283	Form 4
2026-08-15	Bird Kristin	officer	Withheld for tax	301	5,842	Form 4
2026-08-15	Viso Luis	officer	Withheld for tax	255	1,669	Form 4
2026-05-17	Viso Luis	officer	Withheld for tax	500	3,145	Form 4
2026-01-05	FOX ROBERT L	director	Gift	230	245,652	Form 4
2025-11-20	FOX ROBERT L	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-11-20	BRASIER BARBARA L	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-11-20	Arnold Zena Srivatsa	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-11-20	HARRIS ALAN F	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-11-20	Ostryniec Robert Paul	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-11-20	KEOWN MICHAEL H	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-11-20	Knight George F. III	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-11-20	Fullen Elliot K.	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-11-20	FOX ROBERT L	director	Gift	1,820	245,882	Form 4
2025-11-20	GERLACH JOHN B JR	director	Award / grant	786	786	Form 4
2025-08-21	Ciesinski David Alan	director	Withheld for tax	5,840	59,011	Form 4
2025-08-21	Pigott, Thomas K.	officer	Withheld for tax	887	16,879	Form 4
2025-08-21	Bird Kristin	officer	Withheld for tax	532	6,143	Form 4
2025-08-21	Bird Kristin	officer	Award / grant	1,785	6,675	Form 4
2025-08-21	Pigott, Thomas K.	officer	Award / grant	2,973	17,766	Form 4
2025-08-21	Ciesinski David Alan	director	Award / grant	12,881	64,851	Form 4
2025-08-16	Ciesinski David Alan	director	Withheld for tax	2,674	51,970	Form 4
2025-08-16	Pigott, Thomas K.	officer	Withheld for tax	532	14,793	Form 4
2025-08-16	Bird Kristin	officer	Withheld for tax	319	4,890	Form 4
2025-08-12	Bird Kristin	officer	Award / grant	1,245	1,245	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i