MYRG · TickerCove

MYRGMYR Group Inc.Industrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $275.37 · now $275.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MYRG has typically landed between $233.87 and $333.84 — a range of −15.1% to +21.2% from the issuance price $275.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,530 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-08-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($275.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$275.37 · 31% of range

$175.84 low$501.13 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.5%

typical move · IQR 14.8%

−15.1%worst (p90)+21.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MYRG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $275.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $275.37 (+0.0%)
typical $279.44 (+1.5%)
middle 50% $259.03–$299.84
90% range $233.87–$333.84

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,530 windows spanning 2008-08-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−45.1%	−45.1%	+2.3%
2008-10-15	−40.9%	−40.9%	+8.8%
2020-02-13	−40.7%	−40.7%	+0.5%
3 best
2008-11-13	+69.3%	+0.0%	+71.5%
2026-04-06	+62.7%	+0.0%	+62.7%
2026-04-02	+59.7%	+0.0%	+59.7%

4,530 overlapping windows · 2008-08-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

+1.0%

n=18

Feb

56%

+2.0%

n=18

Mar

83%

+5.5%

n=18

Apr

56%

+2.5%

n=18

May

44%

+2.3%

n=18

Jun

72%

+3.7%

n=18

Jul

67%

+0.5%

n=18

Aug

33%

−3.4%

n=18

Sep

47%

−0.4%

n=19

Oct

67%

+1.6%

n=18

Nov

67%

+4.5%

n=18

Dec

50%

+3.9%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-03	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Sale	12,123 @ $449.30	$5.4M	−59.9% of holding	+0.4%	not yet — horizon still open	8,131	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03	Hartwick Kenneth Michael	director	Sale	3,500 @ $450.50	$1.6M	−15.8% of holding	+0.4%	not yet — horizon still open	18,631	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Sale	2,410 @ $450.49	$1.1M	−29.6% of holding	+0.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,721	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Sale	80 @ $453.17	$36K	−1.4% of holding	+0.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,579	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Sale	62 @ $451.22	$28K	−1.1% of holding	+0.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,659	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Huntington Kelly Michelle	officer	Sale	759 @ $460.03	$349K	−13.9% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	4,691	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Huntington Kelly Michelle	officer	Sale	601 @ $458.61	$276K	−9.9% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,450	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	O'Connor Shirin	director	Sale	569 @ $446.60	$254K	−9.0% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,724	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	O'Connor Shirin	director	Sale	567 @ $442.35	$251K	−7.9% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	6,653	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	O'Connor Shirin	director	Sale	489 @ $447.76	$219K	−8.5% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,235	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	O'Connor Shirin	director	Sale	469 @ $452.94	$212K	−10.4% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	4,061	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Huntington Kelly Michelle	officer	Sale	440 @ $453.20	$199K	−6.6% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	6,251	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	O'Connor Shirin	director	Sale	416 @ $448.65	$187K	−7.9% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	4,819	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	O'Connor Shirin	director	Sale	289 @ $449.44	$130K	−6.0% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	4,530	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	O'Connor Shirin	director	Sale	240 @ $443.49	$106K	−3.6% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	6,413	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Huntington Kelly Michelle	officer	Sale	120 @ $456.85	$55K	−1.9% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	6,051	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	O'Connor Shirin	director	Sale	120 @ $445.08	$53K	−1.9% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	6,293	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Huntington Kelly Michelle	officer	Sale	80 @ $453.77	$36K	−1.3% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	6,171	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-04	Egan Don A.	officer	Sale	1,512 @ $232.85	$352K	−20.7% of holding	−1.3%	+76.7%	5,797	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-04	Egan Don A.	officer	Sale	1,388 @ $234.00	$325K	−16.0% of holding	−1.3%	+76.7%	7,309	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04	Favreau Bradley Thede	director	Purchase	835 @ $119.60	$100K	+6.6% of holding	+0.9%	+39.1%	13,542	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

176 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-04	Richard Aurelie Pascale	director	Option exercise	758	0	Form 4
2026-09-04	Richard Aurelie Pascale	director	Option exercise	758	758	Form 4
2026-09-04	Richard Aurelie Pascale	director	Option exercise	758	758	Form 4
2026-09-04	Richard Aurelie Pascale	director	Option exercise	758	758	Form 4
2026-09-04	Richard Aurelie Pascale	director	Option exercise	758	758	Form 4
2026-04-27	Hartwick Kenneth Michael	director	Withheld for tax	1,786	22,131	Form 4
2026-04-24	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Withheld for tax	554	20,254	Form 4
2026-04-24	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Option exercise	1,160	0	Form 4
2026-04-24	O'Connor Shirin	director	Option exercise	1,160	0	Form 4
2026-04-24	Hartwick Kenneth Michael	director	Option exercise	1,657	0	Form 4
2026-04-24	Karna Ajoy Hari	director	Option exercise	1,160	0	Form 4
2026-04-24	Lowry Jennifer Elaine	director	Option exercise	1,160	0	Form 4
2026-04-24	Favreau Bradley Thede	director	Option exercise	1,160	0	Form 4
2026-04-24	Lowry Jennifer Elaine	director	Option exercise	1,160	11,819	Form 4
2026-04-24	Favreau Bradley Thede	director	Option exercise	1,160	15,370	Form 4
2026-04-24	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Option exercise	1,160	20,808	Form 4
2026-04-24	O'Connor Shirin	director	Option exercise	1,160	7,220	Form 4
2026-04-24	O'Connor Shirin	director	Option exercise	1,160	7,220	Form 4
2026-04-24	Karna Ajoy Hari	director	Option exercise	1,160	4,130	Form 4
2026-04-24	Favreau Bradley Thede	director	Option exercise	1,160	15,370	Form 4
2026-04-24	Karna Ajoy Hari	director	Option exercise	1,160	4,130	Form 4
2026-04-24	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Option exercise	1,160	20,808	Form 4
2026-04-24	Lowry Jennifer Elaine	director	Option exercise	1,160	11,819	Form 4
2026-04-23	Lowry Jennifer Elaine	director	Award / grant	414	414	Form 4
2026-04-23	O'Connor Shirin	director	Award / grant	414	414	Form 4
2026-04-23	LUCKY DONALD C.I.	director	Award / grant	414	414	Form 4
2026-04-23	Richard Aurelie Pascale	director	Award / grant	414	414	Form 4
2026-04-23	Hartwick Kenneth Michael	director	Award / grant	591	591	Form 4
2026-04-23	Favreau Bradley Thede	director	Award / grant	414	414	Form 4
2026-04-23	Karna Ajoy Hari	director	Award / grant	414	414	Form 4
2026-03-23	Swartz Richard S. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,330	163,018	Form 4
2026-03-23	Huntington Kelly Michelle	officer	Withheld for tax	310	6,691	Form 4
2026-03-23	FRY WILLIAM	officer	Withheld for tax	241	16,843	Form 4
2026-03-23	Egan Don A.	officer	Withheld for tax	226	7,858	Form 4
2026-03-23	Stern Brian K.	officer	Withheld for tax	124	4,339	Form 4
2026-03-23	Stern Brian K.	officer	Option exercise	286	4,463	Form 4
2026-03-23	Egan Don A.	officer	Award / grant	1,202	1,202	Form 4
2026-03-23	Huntington Kelly Michelle	officer	Award / grant	1,202	1,202	Form 4
2026-03-23	Huntington Kelly Michelle	officer	Option exercise	732	7,001	Form 4
2026-03-23	FRY WILLIAM	officer	Option exercise	549	17,084	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i