MWAMueller Water Products, Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.74 · now $22.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MWA has typically landed between $20.24 and $26.15 — a range of −11.0% to +15.0% from the issuance price $22.74.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MWA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$20.24worst · -11.0%$26.15best · +15.0%
  • now $22.74 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.91 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.71–$24.11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.24–$26.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-30−76.8%−76.8%+4.1%
2009-02-03−76.0%−76.4%+0.0%
2009-02-02−75.1%−77.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+140.2%+0.0%+140.2%
2009-03-04+118.7%−9.0%+118.7%
2009-03-03+112.5%+0.0%+119.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−1.7%
n=20
Feb
60%
−0.4%
n=20
Mar
60%
+3.4%
n=20
Apr
50%
+2.9%
n=20
May
40%
+1.5%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.5%
n=20
Jul
65%
+1.7%
n=20
Aug
60%
−0.3%
n=20
Sep
50%
+1.2%
n=20
Oct
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Nov
60%
+1.4%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$30$232026-09-01: 2 insider sales, $250K — Helms Todd P, Ortiz Christine2026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $292K — Ortiz Christine2026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $75K — Feyerherm Richelle R.2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — McAndrew Paul2026-07-07: 1 insider purchase, $30K — Healy Brian C.2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — ZAKAS MARIETTA EDMUNDS2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $30K — Healy Brian C.2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $296K — Helms Todd P2026-02-25: 1 insider purchase, $739K — SENGSTACK GREGG C2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $319K — Helms Todd P2026-01-07: 1 insider purchase, $27K — Healy Brian C.2025-12-09: 2 insider sales, $814K — Heinrichs Steven S …2025-12-04: 2 insider sales, $372K — Helms Todd P …2025-10-07: 1 insider purchase, $28K — Healy Brian C.2025-09-08: 1 insider sale, $20K — Smith Suzanne G2025-08-28: 2 insider sales, $312K — Heinrichs Steven S, Smith Suzanne G2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $628K — HANSEN THOMAS J2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $227K — Smith Suzanne G2025-08: 5 open-market sales, $1.4M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $20K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $28K2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $27K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $739K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $319K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $296K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $30K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $1.4M2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $30K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $250K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Helms Todd P — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ortiz Christine — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed same daydirector Ortiz Christine — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed same dayofficer Feyerherm Richelle R. — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed same daydirector McAndrew Paul — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed same daydirector Healy Brian C. — Purchase on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ZAKAS MARIETTA EDMUNDS — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Healy Brian C. — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Helms Todd P — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector SENGSTACK GREGG C — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Helms Todd P — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Healy Brian C. — Purchase on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Heinrichs Steven S — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Heinrichs Steven S — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Helms Todd P — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Helms Todd P — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Healy Brian C. — Purchase on 2025-10-07, filed same dayofficer Smith Suzanne G — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Heinrichs Steven S — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Smith Suzanne G — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HANSEN THOMAS J — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed same dayofficer Smith Suzanne G — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Helms Todd PofficerSale9,997 @ $23.67$237K−15.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open54,480Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01Ortiz ChristinedirectorSale550 @ $23.93$13K−1.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,274Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-31Ortiz ChristinedirectorSale12,048 @ $24.23$292K−28.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,824Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26Feyerherm Richelle R.officerSale3,000 @ $25.00$75K−19.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open12,585Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10McAndrew PauldirectorSale40,000 @ $26.39$1.1M−48.5% of holding−6.6%not yet — horizon still open42,556Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-07Healy Brian C.directorPurchase1,183 @ $25.33$30K+5.0% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open24,946Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28ZAKAS MARIETTA EDMUNDSdirectorSale54,254 @ $25.26$1.4M−10.2% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open479,868Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15Healy Brian C.directorPurchase1,166 @ $25.75$30K+5.2% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open23,763Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-17Helms Todd PofficerSale10,720 @ $27.61$296K−14.3% of holding−1.8%−30.3%64,477Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-25SENGSTACK GREGG CdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $29.58$739Kownership Δ n/a−0.3%−26.1%25,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19Helms Todd PofficerSale10,720 @ $29.72$319K−12.5% of holding−3.6%−27.2%75,197Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-07Healy Brian C.directorPurchase1,125 @ $24.41$27K+6.7% of holding+20.2%−6.8%17,925Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale18,557 @ $24.29$451K−61.8% of holding+2.8%−1.8%11,493Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale14,965 @ $24.29$363K−33.2% of holding+2.8%−1.8%30,050Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Helms Todd PofficerSale8,015 @ $24.62$197K−8.5% of holding−1.1%−5.1%85,917Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Helms Todd PofficerSale7,079 @ $24.62$174K−7.0% of holding−1.1%−5.1%93,932Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-07Healy Brian C.directorPurchase1,070 @ $25.78$28K+6.8% of holding+1.2%+16.9%16,800Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-08Smith Suzanne GofficerSale750 @ $26.79$20K−98.3% of holding−8.4%+0.4%13Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale10,310 @ $26.86$277K−47.4% of holding−8.5%+4.4%11,459Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28Smith Suzanne GofficerSale1,288 @ $26.91$35K−62.8% of holding−8.5%+4.4%763Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18HANSEN THOMAS JdirectorSale24,005 @ $26.15$628K−21.8% of holding−5.9%+7.3%86,163Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15Smith Suzanne GofficerSale8,621 @ $26.37$227K−91.9% of holding−5.4%+8.7%761Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07Sharritts Jeffery S.directorSale7,700 @ $25.82$199K−24.9% of holding+0.9%+3.3%23,244Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-07Healy Brian C.directorPurchase1,110 @ $24.74$27K+7.6% of holding+2.1%−12.6%15,730Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Healy Brian C.directorPurchase1,085 @ $25.32$27K+8.0% of holding−9.1%−22.9%14,620Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-08Slobodow BriandirectorSale7,376 @ $24.57$181K−100.0% of holding−6.5%−17.6%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-11THOMAS LYDIA WdirectorSale17,092 @ $26.77$458K−11.9% of holding−5.3%−24.5%126,689Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale38,517 @ $24.88$958K−77.2% of holding+4.5%−4.9%11,399Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale38,109 @ $24.88$948K−43.3% of holding+4.5%−4.9%49,916Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale37,350 @ $24.88$929K−29.8% of holding+4.5%−4.9%88,025Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale31,470 @ $24.88$783K−20.1% of holding+4.5%−4.9%125,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale19,675 @ $24.93$490K−11.1% of holding+4.5%−4.9%156,845Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale14,799 @ $24.93$369K−7.7% of holding+4.5%−4.9%176,520Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale8,089 @ $24.93$202K−4.1% of holding+4.5%−4.9%191,319Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05FRANKLIN SHIRLEY C.directorSale7,376 @ $24.67$182K−10.2% of holding+4.5%−4.9%65,043Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale3,220 @ $24.93$80K−1.6% of holding+4.5%−4.9%199,408Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale2,494 @ $24.93$62K−1.2% of holding+4.5%−4.9%202,628Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Heinrichs Steven SofficerSale1,710 @ $24.93$43K−0.8% of holding+4.5%−4.9%205,122Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04Slobodow BriandirectorSale11,132 @ $24.73$275K−60.1% of holding+7.0%−6.6%7,376Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Ortiz ChristinedirectorSale3,875 @ $25.88$100K−9.2% of holding+5.6%−5.1%38,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24FRANKLIN SHIRLEY C.directorSale8,825 @ $25.11$222K−10.9% of holding+9.6%−0.4%72,419Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Healy Brian C.directorPurchase1,115 @ $22.32$25K+22.2% of holding+23.1%+8.5%6,140Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09Smith Suzanne GofficerSale26,138 @ $24.99$653K−73.6% of holding−9.5%−4.3%9,378Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Feyerherm Richelle R.officerWithheld for tax1,15715,585Form 4
2026-06-08Floyd Scott P.officerWithheld for tax5,907107,679Form 4
2026-03-03Rasmussen MelissaofficerWithheld for tax3,3419,114Form 4
2026-02-23Floyd Scott P.officerAward / grant2,9792,979Form 4
2026-02-23Floyd Scott P.officerAward / grant1,05636,607Form 4
2026-02-10McAndrew PauldirectorAward / grant20,25073,119Form 4
2026-02-10McAndrew PauldirectorAward / grant61,80061,800Form 4
2026-02-10SENGSTACK GREGG CdirectorAward / grant4,4144,414Form 4
2026-02-09Ortiz ChristinedirectorAward / grant4,3814,381Form 4
2026-02-09Sharritts Jeffery S.directorAward / grant4,3814,381Form 4
2026-02-09Terry Bentina ChisolmdirectorAward / grant4,3814,381Form 4
2026-02-09Van Arsdell Stephen CdirectorAward / grant4,3814,381Form 4
2026-02-09Weaver LelanddirectorAward / grant4,3814,381Form 4
2026-02-09Garcia Christian AdirectorAward / grant4,3814,381Form 4
2026-02-09HANSEN THOMAS JdirectorAward / grant4,3814,381Form 4
2026-02-09Healy Brian C.directorAward / grant4,3814,381Form 4
2025-12-04Helms Todd PofficerOption exercise11,32991,542Form 4
2025-12-04Helms Todd PofficerOption exercise9,469101,011Form 4
2025-12-04Helms Todd PofficerOption exercise9,4699,469Form 4
2025-12-04Helms Todd PofficerOption exercise11,3290Form 4
2025-12-03ZAKAS MARIETTA EDMUNDSdirectorWithheld for tax5,023534,112Form 4
2025-12-03McAndrew PauldirectorWithheld for tax1,47882,556Form 4
2025-12-03Carroll Chason AofficerWithheld for tax66516,881Form 4
2025-12-03Helms Todd PofficerWithheld for tax66580,213Form 4
2025-12-03Floyd Scott P.officerWithheld for tax60989,043Form 4
2025-12-03Rasmussen MelissaofficerWithheld for tax5282,189Form 4
2025-12-03Feyerherm Richelle R.officerWithheld for tax13312,932Form 4
2025-12-02Carroll Chason AofficerAward / grant15,70215,702Form 4
2025-12-02Feyerherm Richelle R.officerAward / grant5,6525,652Form 4
2025-12-02Feyerherm Richelle R.officerAward / grant7,26312,629Form 4
2025-12-02Feyerherm Richelle R.officerAward / grant1,83915,371Form 4
2025-12-02Floyd Scott P.officerAward / grant26,42788,105Form 4
2025-12-02Floyd Scott P.officerAward / grant5,36437,098Form 4
2025-12-02Floyd Scott P.officerAward / grant16,48816,488Form 4
2025-12-02Carroll Chason AofficerAward / grant5,10911,867Form 4
2025-12-02Heinrichs Steven SofficerAward / grant33,52245,015Form 4
2025-12-02Helms Todd PofficerAward / grant21,47679,413Form 4
2025-12-02Helms Todd PofficerAward / grant4,59911,830Form 4
2025-12-02Helms Todd PofficerAward / grant14,13314,133Form 4
2025-12-02Rasmussen MelissaofficerAward / grant9,70847,171Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.