MVIS · TickerCove

MVISMicroVision, Inc.Technology · Hardware, Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.63 · now $1.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MVIS has typically landed between $1.09 and $2.20 — a range of −33.0% to +35.0% from the issuance price $1.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,999 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.63 · 1% of range

$1.53 low$21.45 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−8.1%

typical move · IQR 25.4%

−33.0%worst (p90)+35.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MVIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.63 (+0.0%)
typical $1.5 (-8.1%)
middle 50% $1.29–$1.71
90% range $1.09–$2.2

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,999 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−74.2%	−74.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−73.1%	−74.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−72.1%	−72.1%	+9.8%
3 best
2020-04-02	+490.9%	−4.5%	+490.9%
2020-04-03	+438.1%	+0.0%	+519.0%
2020-04-09	+338.1%	+0.0%	+519.0%

4,999 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−1.2%

n=20

Feb

50%

+7.4%

n=20

Mar

45%

+0.6%

n=20

Apr

55%

+6.0%

n=20

May

55%

+19.2%

n=20

Jun

40%

−3.0%

n=20

Jul

40%

−1.2%

n=20

Aug

40%

−3.5%

n=20

Sep

35%

−2.3%

n=20

Oct

20%

−6.7%

n=20

Nov

35%

−4.1%

n=20

Dec

35%

+5.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-01-28	Smith Jada	director	Sale	20,113 @ $1.61	$32K	−50.0% of holding	−11.7%	−37.3%	20,113	Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

164 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Chambers Christine	officer	Award / grant	562,114	562,114	Form 4
2026-09-02	Byun Jeemyung	officer	Award / grant	674,536	674,536	Form 4
2026-09-01	Carlile Robert Paul	director	Option exercise	4,670	42,051	Form 4
2026-09-01	Schabert Peter	director	Option exercise	4,670	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	Smith Jada	director	Option exercise	4,670	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	Smith Jada	director	Option exercise	4,670	16,440	Form 4
2026-09-01	Herbst Jeffrey A	director	Option exercise	4,670	23,398	Form 4
2026-09-01	Peterson Laura J.	director	Option exercise	4,670	11,977	Form 4
2026-09-01	Schabert Peter	director	Option exercise	4,670	15,902	Form 4
2026-09-01	Herbst Jeffrey A	director	Option exercise	4,670	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	Peterson Laura J.	director	Option exercise	4,670	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	Carlile Robert Paul	director	Option exercise	4,670	0	Form 4
2026-07-16	Peterson Laura J.	director	Award / grant	280,152	280,152	Form 4
2026-07-16	Schabert Peter	director	Award / grant	280,152	280,152	Form 4
2026-07-16	Smith Jada	director	Award / grant	280,152	280,152	Form 4
2026-07-16	Herbst Jeffrey A	director	Award / grant	280,152	280,152	Form 4
2026-07-16	Carlile Robert Paul	director	Award / grant	280,152	280,152	Form 4
2026-06-10	DeVos Glen W.	director	Withheld for tax	183,233	537,937	Form 4
2026-06-10	Markham Drew G	officer	Withheld for tax	77,905	663,203	Form 4
2026-06-08	Hrynewich Stephen	officer	Withheld for tax	2,017	182,497	Form 4
2026-06-08	DeVos Glen W.	director	Option exercise	361,500	0	Form 4
2026-06-08	Markham Drew G	officer	Option exercise	150,000	622,308	Form 4
2026-06-08	Markham Drew G	officer	Option exercise	118,800	741,108	Form 4
2026-06-08	Markham Drew G	officer	Award / grant	150,000	150,000	Form 4
2026-06-08	Markham Drew G	officer	Option exercise	150,000	0	Form 4
2026-06-08	Markham Drew G	officer	Option exercise	118,800	0	Form 4
2026-06-08	DeVos Glen W.	director	Option exercise	361,500	721,170	Form 4
2026-06-08	DeVos Glen W.	director	Award / grant	361,500	361,500	Form 4
2026-06-05	Markham Drew G	officer	Withheld for tax	35,901	472,308	Form 4
2026-06-05	Smith Jada	director	Option exercise	22,007	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Hrynewich Stephen	officer	Option exercise	6,000	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	BIDDISCOMBE SIMON	director	Option exercise	22,007	407,256	Form 4
2026-06-05	BIDDISCOMBE SIMON	director	Option exercise	22,007	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Carlile Robert Paul	director	Option exercise	22,007	560,706	Form 4
2026-06-05	Carlile Robert Paul	director	Option exercise	22,007	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Herbst Jeffrey A	director	Option exercise	22,007	280,919	Form 4
2026-06-05	Herbst Jeffrey A	director	Option exercise	22,007	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Peterson Laura J.	director	Option exercise	18,005	109,601	Form 4
2026-06-05	Peterson Laura J.	director	Option exercise	18,005	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Schabert Peter	director	Option exercise	22,007	168,478	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i