MUSA · TickerCove

MUSAMurphy USA Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $513.27 · now $513.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MUSA has typically landed between $455.41 and $590.34 — a range of −11.3% to +15.0% from the issuance price $513.27.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,268 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-08-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($513.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$513.27 · 59% of range

$355.2 low$622.78 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.1%

typical move · IQR 10.9%

−11.3%worst (p90)+15.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MUSA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $513.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $513.27 (+0.0%)
typical $523.88 (+2.1%)
middle 50% $495.8–$551.95
90% range $455.41–$590.34

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,268 windows spanning 2013-08-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−21.3%	−21.3%	+7.9%
2020-03-04	−19.4%	−22.1%	+6.8%
2018-01-09	−19.0%	−19.0%	+3.3%
3 best
2019-10-08	+39.7%	+0.0%	+40.9%
2019-10-07	+39.5%	−1.0%	+39.5%
2019-10-02	+38.3%	−0.3%	+38.3%

3,268 overlapping windows · 2013-08-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

38%

−1.7%

n=13

Feb

46%

−0.3%

n=13

Mar

77%

+4.8%

n=13

Apr

46%

+3.0%

n=13

May

54%

+1.3%

n=13

Jun

54%

+2.8%

n=13

Jul

77%

+5.8%

n=13

Aug

69%

−0.4%

n=13

Sep

50%

+1.4%

n=14

Oct

54%

+4.7%

n=13

Nov

69%

+4.1%

n=13

Dec

46%

−0.6%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Bartko Eric J.	officer	Sale	100 @ $523.60	$52K	−28.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	252	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20	Turner Rosemary	director	Sale	966 @ $571.88	$552K	−68.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	449	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05	Landen Diane N	director	Sale	3,000 @ $547.25	$1.6M	−5.3% of holding	+9.7%	not yet — horizon still open	53,841	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Keyes James W	director	Sale	2,339 @ $511.00	$1.2M	−13.2% of holding	+9.8%	not yet — horizon still open	15,366	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-27	Bacon Renee M	officer	Sale	1,050 @ $529.44	$556K	−25.4% of holding	+4.6%	not yet — horizon still open	3,083	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15	Emery Keith A.	officer	Sale	517 @ $574.49	$297K	−100.0% of holding	+0.1%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-05	Woodward Scott G.	officer	Sale	158 @ $600.50	$95K	−24.9% of holding	−15.2%	not yet — horizon still open	476	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04	MURPHY ROBERT MADISON	director	Sale	26,000 @ $597.00	$15.5M	−6.8% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	357,712	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04	MURPHY ROBERT MADISON	director	Sale	15,500 @ $596.90	$9.3M	−4.3% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	342,212	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-05	CHUMLEY ROBERT J	officer	Sale	5,038 @ $420.00	$2.1M	−45.6% of holding	+24.4%	+11.0%	6,008	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Woodward Scott G.	officer	Sale	137 @ $422.44	$58K	−100.0% of holding	+24.4%	+11.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26	Emery Keith A.	officer	Sale	899 @ $382.53	$344K	−100.0% of holding	+38.8%	+19.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24	Phillips Jeanne Linder	director	Sale	1,155 @ $395.19	$456K	−42.8% of holding	+27.3%	+28.5%	1,543	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-23	Bacon Renee M	officer	Sale	2,844 @ $388.61	$1.1M	−48.0% of holding	+23.6%	+32.7%	3,083	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13	Bacon Renee M	officer	Sale	1,219 @ $386.09	$471K	−17.1% of holding	+14.3%	+30.3%	5,927	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13	Bartko Eric J.	officer	Sale	345 @ $404.84	$140K	−49.5% of holding	+14.3%	+30.3%	352	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10	Bacon Renee M	officer	Sale	353 @ $373.39	$132K	−5.6% of holding	+29.3%	+38.7%	5,927	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04	West Malynda K	director	Sale	3,967 @ $450.00	$1.8M	−3.3% of holding	+0.7%	+8.3%	117,389	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-07	West Malynda K	director	Sale	4,051 @ $425.00	$1.7M	−3.3% of holding	−11.4%	+28.9%	117,389	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-20	Clyde R Andrew	director	Sale	24,733 @ $381.33	$9.4M	−15.9% of holding	+2.5%	+24.1%	131,024	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20	Clyde R Andrew	director	Sale	16,250 @ $381.33	$6.2M	−21.5% of holding	+2.5%	+24.1%	59,172	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12	West Malynda K	director	Sale	1,859 @ $386.22	$718K	−1.6% of holding	−1.4%	−10.5%	117,389	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05	MURPHY ROBERT MADISON	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $367.01	$1.8M	+1.3% of holding	+0.0%	+13.4%	389,172	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27	Haley David C.	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $435.58	$436K	ownership Δ n/a	−10.1%	−28.5%	1,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05	Phillips Jeanne Linder	director	Sale	797 @ $452.31	$360K	−25.3% of holding	+11.2%	−31.7%	2,349	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03	Bacon Renee M	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $469.58	$939K	−25.2% of holding	+5.9%	−30.0%	5,927	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13	Turner Rosemary	director	Sale	400 @ $495.00	$198K	−50.2% of holding	−3.4%	−26.1%	397	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13	Turner Rosemary	director	Sale	397 @ $497.20	$197K	−100.0% of holding	−3.4%	−26.1%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

272 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-17	Turner Rosemary	director	Option exercise	617	872	Form 4
2026-08-17	Turner Rosemary	director	Option exercise	449	1,415	Form 4
2026-08-17	Turner Rosemary	director	Option exercise	617	966	Form 4
2026-08-17	Turner Rosemary	director	Option exercise	449	422	Form 4
2026-08-11	Keyes James W	director	Gift	2,000	13,366	Form 4
2026-06-30	Taylor Jack T	director	Award / grant	59	1,116	Form 4
2026-06-30	MILLER DAVID B	director	Award / grant	48	897	Form 4
2026-06-30	DEMING CLAIBORNE P	director	Award / grant	57	1,072	Form 4
2026-06-30	Phillips Jeanne Linder	director	Award / grant	48	428	Form 4
2026-06-05	Landen Diane N	director	Gift	3,000	50,841	Form 4
2026-05-26	Bacon Renee M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,550	4,133	Form 4
2026-05-26	Bacon Renee M	officer	Option exercise	2,600	0	Form 4
2026-05-26	Bacon Renee M	officer	Option exercise	2,600	5,683	Form 4
2026-05-15	Emery Keith A.	officer	Withheld for tax	428	517	Form 4
2026-05-15	Emery Keith A.	officer	Withheld for tax	255	245	Form 4
2026-05-15	Emery Keith A.	officer	Option exercise	500	0	Form 4
2026-05-15	Emery Keith A.	officer	Option exercise	700	0	Form 4
2026-05-15	Emery Keith A.	officer	Option exercise	700	945	Form 4
2026-05-15	Emery Keith A.	officer	Option exercise	500	500	Form 4
2026-05-05	Woodward Scott G.	officer	Withheld for tax	240	586	Form 4
2026-05-05	Woodward Scott G.	officer	Withheld for tax	202	634	Form 4
2026-05-05	Woodward Scott G.	officer	Option exercise	250	836	Form 4
2026-05-05	Woodward Scott G.	officer	Option exercise	250	250	Form 4
2026-05-05	Woodward Scott G.	officer	Option exercise	350	826	Form 4
2026-05-05	Woodward Scott G.	officer	Option exercise	350	0	Form 4
2026-04-06	Smith Donald R Jr	officer	Award / grant	427	427	Form 4
2026-04-06	Smith Donald R Jr	officer	Award / grant	267	1,691	Form 4
2026-04-06	Smith Donald R Jr	officer	Award / grant	134	2,075	Form 4
2026-03-31	Taylor Jack T	director	Award / grant	68	1,055	Form 4
2026-03-31	Phillips Jeanne Linder	director	Award / grant	55	380	Form 4
2026-03-31	MILLER DAVID B	director	Award / grant	55	848	Form 4
2026-03-31	DEMING CLAIBORNE P	director	Award / grant	65	1,014	Form 4
2026-02-13	MURPHY ROBERT MADISON	director	Option exercise	349	421	Form 4
2026-02-13	Haley David C.	director	Option exercise	244	244	Form 4
2026-02-13	Haley David C.	director	Option exercise	244	421	Form 4
2026-02-13	Landen Diane N	director	Option exercise	349	56,841	Form 4
2026-02-13	Landen Diane N	director	Option exercise	349	421	Form 4
2026-02-13	MURPHY ROBERT MADISON	director	Option exercise	349	383,712	Form 4
2026-02-13	GOEBEL DAVID	director	Option exercise	349	1,796	Form 4
2026-02-13	GOEBEL DAVID	director	Option exercise	349	1,037	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i