MURMurphy Oil Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.19 · now $38.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MUR has typically landed between $32.34 and $45.70 — a range of −15.3% to +19.7% from the issuance price $38.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MUR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$32.34worst · -15.3%$45.7best · +19.7%
  • now $38.19 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.63 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.64–$41.61
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.34–$45.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−79.0%−79.0%+0.1%
2020-02-21−75.9%−78.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−75.3%−79.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-30+102.6%−1.9%+102.6%
2020-03-31+93.3%−8.7%+93.3%
2020-04-01+85.2%+0.0%+111.7%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
−3.1%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.3%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+6.9%
n=19
May
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Aug
32%
−3.5%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.0%
n=19
Oct
44%
+2.3%
n=18
Nov
61%
+4.3%
n=18
Dec
39%
−0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$42$212026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Hanchera Daniel R2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $301K — Martinez Maria A2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Hanchera Daniel R — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Martinez Maria A — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-11Hanchera Daniel RofficerSale47,320 @ $33.79$1.6M−56.7% of holding+13.4%not yet — horizon still open36,166Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Martinez Maria AofficerSale8,608 @ $34.93$301K−14.7% of holding+16.8%not yet — horizon still open50,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $23.42$117K+1.7% of holding+13.5%−2.0%292,012Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $23.37$117K+1.8% of holding+13.5%−2.0%287,012Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-21Utsch Louis WofficerSale9,584 @ $28.10$269K−50.2% of holding+3.8%−17.6%9,504Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-05DEMING CLAIBORNE PdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $26.56$1.3M+5.4% of holding+0.8%−17.4%981,651Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Palanivelu MeenambigaiofficerPurchase1,573 @ $26.70$42K+4.4% of holding+0.8%−17.4%37,065Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04DEMING CLAIBORNE PdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $26.47$1.3M+5.7% of holding−2.8%−14.2%931,651Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Ecklund Michol LofficerAward / grant25,50025,500Form 4
2026-07-01Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorDisposition2,174266,930Form 4
2026-07-01Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorOption exercise2,174269,104Form 4
2026-07-01Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorOption exercise2,17433,772Form 4
2026-07-01Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorOption exercise2,17433,772Form 4
2026-07-01Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorOption exercise2,174269,104Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerWithheld for tax9,883241,786Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerWithheld for tax3,459221,824Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerWithheld for tax3,069226,554Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise9,85040,030Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise24,6300Form 4
2026-06-30Earley Michelle AdirectorAward / grant3535,630Form 4
2026-06-30Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorAward / grant84562,655Form 4
2026-06-30DEMING CLAIBORNE PdirectorAward / grant1,26731,470Form 4
2026-06-30DEMING CLAIBORNE PdirectorAward / grant57632,046Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise15,40024,630Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise25,115251,669Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise8,790225,283Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise7,799229,623Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise25,115251,669Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise8,790225,283Form 4
2026-06-30BOTNER E TEDofficerOption exercise7,799229,623Form 4
2026-03-31Earley Michelle AdirectorAward / grant2835,595Form 4
2026-03-31DEMING CLAIBORNE PdirectorAward / grant45529,203Form 4
2026-03-31DEMING CLAIBORNE PdirectorAward / grant1,00030,203Form 4
2026-03-31Nolan Jeffrey WdirectorAward / grant66761,810Form 4
2026-02-11MURPHY ROBERT MADISONdirectorGift43,1481,445,274Form 4
2026-02-09MURPHY ROBERT MADISONdirectorGift4,3451,488,422Form 4
2026-02-09MURPHY ROBERT MADISONdirectorGift2,89650,228Form 4
2026-02-05Tudor Robert B IIIdirectorOption exercise7,4976,316Form 4
2026-02-05DICKERSON LAWRENCE RdirectorOption exercise7,49737,636Form 4
2026-02-05MURPHY ROBERT MADISONdirectorOption exercise7,4976,316Form 4
2026-02-05Keller Elisabeth WdirectorOption exercise7,4976,316Form 4
2026-02-05RYAN ROBERT N JRdirectorOption exercise7,4976,316Form 4
2026-02-05RYAN ROBERT N JRdirectorOption exercise7,88657,703Form 4
2026-02-05DICKERSON LAWRENCE RdirectorOption exercise7,88651,512Form 4
2026-02-05Keller Elisabeth WdirectorOption exercise7,88673,401Form 4
2026-02-05Keller Elisabeth WdirectorOption exercise7,88673,401Form 4
2026-02-05MURPHY ROBERT MADISONdirectorOption exercise7,8867,886Form 4
2026-02-05DICKERSON LAWRENCE RdirectorOption exercise7,88651,512Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-20$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-07-072025-06-27$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-07-072025-06-05$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-12-162024-11-20$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-12-162024-11-20$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2024-10-102024-09-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2024-10-102024-09-30$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2024-09-162024-08-09$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2024-07-222024-06-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-02-132024-01-19$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-02-132024-01-19$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.