Issued 2026-09-25 at $1082.28 · now $1082.28 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, MU has typically landed between $874.68 and $1425.99 — a range of −19.2% to +31.8% from the issuance price $1082.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($1082.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $1,082 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,082 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,125 (+3.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,024–$1,226
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $874.68–$1,426
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-11-04 | −63.6% | −66.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-22 | −61.0% | −61.0% | +14.9% |
| 2008-11-05 | −57.5% | −64.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +100.2% | +0.0% | +100.2% |
| 2026-05-01 | +96.3% | +0.0% | +96.3% |
| 2008-12-04 | +91.0% | +0.0% | +91.0% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$1.0T
market cap
$44.18
EPS (TTM)
20.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-22
next earnings
Revenue$37.4B
'20'25
Net income$8.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr22.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr15.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.28
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$438.25
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$1,511
- Analyst target · range $1,100–$2,200$1,513
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$1,082
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
72%
+9.2%
n=18
Feb
68%
+4.0%
n=19
Mar
47%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
47%
+3.2%
n=19
May
68%
+9.6%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.0%
n=19
Jul
26%
−3.1%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Sep
53%
+4.4%
n=19
Oct
56%
+3.8%
n=18
Nov
67%
+4.6%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 5,252 @ $967.75 | $5.1M | −1.8% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 278,864 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 4,305 @ $962.84 | $4.1M | −1.4% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 297,645 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 4,227 @ $963.84 | $4.1M | −1.4% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,418 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 3,434 @ $964.67 | $3.3M | −1.2% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 289,984 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 2,938 @ $966.85 | $2.8M | −1.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,116 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 2,930 @ $965.81 | $2.8M | −1.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 287,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 2,847 @ $968.77 | $2.8M | −1.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 276,017 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,586 @ $961.58 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,950 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,354 @ $983.11 | $1.3M | −0.5% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 266,174 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,127 @ $976.80 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,457 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,091 @ $979.20 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 268,702 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,047 @ $971.78 | $1.0M | −0.4% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 273,085 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,023 @ $970.71 | $993K | −0.4% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 274,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 863 @ $975.75 | $842K | −0.3% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 271,584 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 862 @ $970.08 | $836K | −0.3% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 275,155 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 823 @ $960.41 | $790K | −0.3% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 303,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 716 @ $981.92 | $703K | −0.3% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,528 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 664 @ $978.02 | $649K | −0.2% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,793 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 637 @ $984.12 | $627K | −0.2% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 265,537 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 458 @ $980.00 | $449K | −0.2% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 268,244 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 351 @ $988.10 | $347K | −0.1% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,761 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 341 @ $986.24 | $336K | −0.1% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 265,112 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 337 @ $974.17 | $328K | −0.1% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 272,447 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 301 @ $972.78 | $293K | −0.1% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 272,784 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 258 @ $989.59 | $255K | −0.1% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,503 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 144 @ $959.14 | $138K | −0.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 304,359 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 84 @ $985.40 | $83K | −0.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 265,453 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Sadana Sumit | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $934.29 | $14.0M | −7.3% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,021 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 3,250 @ $914.17 | $3.0M | −1.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 337,529 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 2,628 @ $934.40 | $2.5M | −0.8% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 320,530 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 2,572 @ $937.78 | $2.4M | −0.8% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 315,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 2,199 @ $929.14 | $2.0M | −0.7% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 328,755 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,903 @ $933.17 | $1.8M | −0.6% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 323,158 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,578 @ $931.05 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,840 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,523 @ $956.18 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 306,226 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,446 @ $917.36 | $1.3M | −0.4% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 335,781 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,396 @ $925.55 | $1.3M | −0.4% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 332,407 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,337 @ $929.90 | $1.2M | −0.4% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 327,418 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,328 @ $922.97 | $1.2M | −0.4% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 333,809 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,277 @ $935.58 | $1.2M | −0.4% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 319,253 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,248 @ $940.14 | $1.2M | −0.4% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 313,454 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,207 @ $948.24 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 308,583 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,050 @ $942.87 | $990K | −0.3% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 312,168 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,002 @ $965.85 | $968K | −0.3% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 304,503 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,009 @ $936.40 | $945K | −0.3% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,244 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 1,008 @ $927.77 | $935K | −0.3% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 330,954 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 970 @ $938.77 | $911K | −0.3% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 314,702 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 955 @ $945.87 | $903K | −0.3% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 310,587 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 797 @ $946.78 | $755K | −0.3% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 808 @ $906.48 | $732K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 343,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 779 @ $932.33 | $726K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,061 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 725 @ $954.19 | $692K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,749 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 681 @ $911.67 | $621K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 341,409 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 626 @ $944.99 | $592K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,542 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 630 @ $913.25 | $575K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 340,779 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 604 @ $910.47 | $550K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 604 @ $908.51 | $549K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,698 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 589 @ $919.89 | $542K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 335,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 445 @ $926.56 | $412K | −0.1% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 331,962 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | MEHROTRA SANJAY | director | Sale | 405 @ $956.68 | $387K | −0.1% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 305,821 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
22 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 663 | 36,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 249 | 35,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Liu Teyin M | director | Award / grant | 27 | 26,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | SWAN ROBERT HOLMES | director | Award / grant | 35 | 35 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Dugle Lynn A | director | Gift | 700 | 17,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Bjorlin Alexis | director | Award / grant | 63 | 63 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 663 | 36,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 249 | 36,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Liu Teyin M | director | Award / grant | 97 | 26,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | SWAN ROBERT HOLMES | director | Award / grant | 121 | 121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | RAY MICHAEL CHARLES | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,137 | 86,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 137 | 37,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Option exercise | 269 | 37,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Option exercise | 269 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 689 | 37,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | ALLEN SCOTT R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 248 | 37,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | CORDANO MICHAEL D | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,058 | 50,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | SWAN ROBERT HOLMES | director | Award / grant | 107 | 107 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Liu Teyin M | director | Award / grant | 53 | 53 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-24 | Murphy Mark J. | director | Other acquisition | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-24 | Murphy Mark J. | director | Other acquisition | 35,000 | 184,693 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | ARNZEN APRIL S | officer | Gift | 110 | 165,508 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-08 | 2026-06-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.