MTW · TickerCove

MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.88 · now $20.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTW has typically landed between $16.97 and $25.71 — a range of −18.7% to +23.1% from the issuance price $20.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$20.88 · 95% of range

$9.73 low$21.41 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.1%

typical move · IQR 19.5%

−18.7%worst (p90)+23.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

3 buys · 5 sells · 2 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MTW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $20.88 (+0.0%)
typical $20.66 (-1.1%)
middle 50% $18.63–$22.69
90% range $16.97–$25.71

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-10-22	−54.5%	−54.5%	+5.2%
2009-02-05	−52.0%	−53.3%	+7.1%
2008-10-21	−51.4%	−51.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08	+125.7%	+0.0%	+125.7%
2009-04-06	+83.1%	−15.5%	+83.1%
2009-04-01	+82.5%	−2.9%	+82.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+5.8%

n=18

Feb

68%

+5.8%

n=19

Mar

42%

−3.1%

n=19

Apr

53%

+4.7%

n=19

May

37%

−2.8%

n=19

Jun

53%

+2.3%

n=19

Jul

53%

−0.2%

n=19

Aug

32%

−3.1%

n=19

Sep

37%

−3.8%

n=19

Oct

44%

−1.5%

n=18

Nov

78%

+9.7%

n=18

Dec

61%

+1.9%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-19	KRUEGER KENNETH W	director	Sale	9,000 @ $11.80	$106K	−5.2% of holding	+14.0%	not yet — horizon still open	162,672	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07	Ravenscroft Aaron H.	officer	Purchase	3,000 @ $8.68	$26K	+0.4% of holding	+21.5%	−1.0%	690,142	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-07	Regan Brian P	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $8.53	$21K	+1.6% of holding	+21.5%	−1.0%	154,441	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-05	Middleton Leslie L.	officer	Award / grant	28,321	188,556	Form 4
2026-05-05	Myers Charles David	director	Award / grant	11,136	100,322	Form 4
2026-05-05	Palmer Ryan M	officer	Award / grant	4,426	24,294	Form 4
2026-05-05	Ravenscroft Aaron H.	officer	Award / grant	148,684	847,280	Form 4
2026-05-05	Regan Brian P	officer	Award / grant	33,631	190,041	Form 4
2026-05-05	Malone Robert W	director	Award / grant	11,136	56,584	Form 4
2026-05-05	Wood Randy A	director	Award / grant	11,136	11,136	Form 4
2026-05-05	Rourke Mark B.	director	Award / grant	11,136	11,136	Form 4
2026-05-05	Davis Amy Rochelle	director	Award / grant	11,136	56,584	Form 4
2026-05-05	KRUEGER KENNETH W	director	Award / grant	11,136	176,903	Form 4
2026-05-05	Gwillim Ryan M	director	Award / grant	11,136	38,503	Form 4
2026-05-05	Peterson Jennifer L	officer	Award / grant	23,011	102,893	Form 4
2026-05-05	BELEC ANNE E	director	Award / grant	11,136	78,332	Form 4
2026-02-27	Ravenscroft Aaron H.	officer	Withheld for tax	20,352	698,596	Form 4
2026-02-27	Regan Brian P	officer	Withheld for tax	4,834	156,410	Form 4
2026-02-27	Middleton Leslie L.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,837	160,235	Form 4
2026-02-27	Peterson Jennifer L	officer	Withheld for tax	3,053	79,882	Form 4
2026-02-27	Cook James Steele	officer	Withheld for tax	2,545	62,491	Form 4
2026-02-27	Palmer Ryan M	officer	Withheld for tax	473	19,868	Form 4
2026-02-25	Ravenscroft Aaron H.	officer	Withheld for tax	30,232	718,948	Form 4
2026-02-25	Regan Brian P	officer	Withheld for tax	7,180	161,244	Form 4
2026-02-25	Middleton Leslie L.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,699	164,072	Form 4
2026-02-25	Peterson Jennifer L	officer	Withheld for tax	4,535	82,935	Form 4
2026-02-25	Cook James Steele	officer	Withheld for tax	3,779	65,036	Form 4
2026-02-25	Palmer Ryan M	officer	Withheld for tax	703	20,341	Form 4
2026-02-18	Ravenscroft Aaron H.	officer	Withheld for tax	72,832	749,180	Form 4
2026-02-18	Regan Brian P	officer	Withheld for tax	17,250	168,424	Form 4
2026-02-18	Middleton Leslie L.	officer	Withheld for tax	13,550	169,771	Form 4
2026-02-18	Peterson Jennifer L	officer	Withheld for tax	11,018	87,470	Form 4
2026-02-18	Cook James Steele	officer	Withheld for tax	9,136	68,815	Form 4
2026-02-18	Palmer Ryan M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,902	21,044	Form 4
2026-02-18	Palmer Ryan M	officer	Award / grant	5,099	22,946	Form 4
2026-02-18	Cook James Steele	officer	Award / grant	19,371	77,951	Form 4
2026-02-18	Peterson Jennifer L	officer	Award / grant	23,448	98,488	Form 4
2026-02-18	Regan Brian P	officer	Award / grant	36,702	185,674	Form 4
2026-02-18	Ravenscroft Aaron H.	officer	Award / grant	154,961	822,012	Form 4
2026-02-18	Middleton Leslie L.	officer	Award / grant	30,585	183,321	Form 4
2026-02-09	Ravenscroft Aaron H.	officer	Withheld for tax	23,091	667,051	Form 4
2026-02-09	Regan Brian P	officer	Withheld for tax	5,469	148,972	Form 4
2026-02-09	Middleton Leslie L.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,296	152,736	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-02-03	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-02-03	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-04-20	2020-02-03	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-04-20	2020-02-03	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2019-12-20	2019-11-22	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2019-12-20	2019-11-22	$50–100K
Mr. Raúl M. Grijalva	House	sale	2014-11-12	2014-10-02	$1–15K
Mr. Raúl M. Grijalva	House	purchase	2014-07-09	2014-06-16	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i