MTRXMatrix Service CompanyIndustrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.90 · now $9.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTRX has typically landed between $7.65 and $12.60 — a range of −22.7% to +27.3% from the issuance price $9.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MTRX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$7.65worst · -22.7%$12.6best · +27.3%
  • now $9.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.92 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.84–$11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.65–$12.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−57.9%−57.9%+5.1%
2008-09-10−57.5%−57.5%+5.4%
2008-09-12−53.5%−59.9%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+62.2%+0.0%+62.2%
2020-12-14+60.3%+0.0%+64.8%
2020-12-11+59.8%−3.0%+59.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.9%
n=20
Feb
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
+2.1%
n=20
May
50%
−1.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
60%
−0.5%
n=20
Aug
65%
+3.2%
n=20
Sep
45%
+0.2%
n=20
Oct
50%
+1.6%
n=20
Nov
60%
+0.1%
n=20
Dec
70%
+3.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$16$102026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $20K — Cavanah Kevin S2026-06-12: 2 insider sales, $258K — SHEETS JUSTIN D, Cavanah Kevin S2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $92K — Cavanah Kevin S2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $705K — Cavanah Kevin S2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $774K — Cavanah Kevin S2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $450K — HEWITT JOHN R2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $47K — AUSTIN NANCY E2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $60K — PAYNE SHAWN P2025-11-20: 1 insider sale, $34K — PAYNE SHAWN P2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $104K — PAYNE SHAWN P2025-09-16: 1 insider purchase, $29K — CHANDLER JOHN D2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $29K2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $198K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $47K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-06: 5 open-market sales, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Cavanah Kevin S — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed same dayofficer SHEETS JUSTIN D — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Cavanah Kevin S — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Cavanah Kevin S — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Cavanah Kevin S — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Cavanah Kevin S — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed same daydirector HEWITT JOHN R — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer AUSTIN NANCY E — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector PAYNE SHAWN P — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector PAYNE SHAWN P — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector PAYNE SHAWN P — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHANDLER JOHN D — Purchase on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15Cavanah Kevin SofficerSale1,418 @ $14.03$20K−1.6% of holding−11.3%not yet — horizon still open87,113Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerSale16,991 @ $13.50$229K−20.9% of holding−11.1%not yet — horizon still open64,337Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12Cavanah Kevin SofficerSale2,073 @ $14.00$29K−2.3% of holding−11.1%not yet — horizon still open88,531Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-05Cavanah Kevin SofficerSale6,509 @ $14.13$92K−6.7% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open90,604Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-04Cavanah Kevin SofficerSale50,000 @ $14.10$705K−34.0% of holding−11.7%not yet — horizon still open97,113Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-26Cavanah Kevin SofficerSale60,000 @ $12.90$774K−29.0% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open147,113Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08HEWITT JOHN RdirectorSale36,000 @ $12.50$450K−5.8% of holding+9.2%not yet — horizon still open581,806Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18AUSTIN NANCY EofficerSale4,193 @ $11.29$47K−3.8% of holding−4.4%−9.5%106,138Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorSale5,231 @ $11.42$60K−4.9% of holding+0.2%+2.2%102,179Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-20PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorSale3,019 @ $11.42$34K−2.7% of holding+1.7%+2.8%107,410Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-11PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorSale8,250 @ $12.58$104K−7.0% of holding−1.3%−12.4%110,429Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16CHANDLER JOHN DdirectorPurchase2,300 @ $12.74$29K+3.0% of holding+3.6%−20.9%78,053Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

262 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-30Cavanah Kevin SofficerDisposition4,56982,390Form 4
2026-08-30PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorDisposition2,817125,054Form 4
2026-08-30SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerDisposition2,57670,436Form 4
2026-08-30Cavanah Kevin SofficerWithheld for tax1,57680,814Form 4
2026-08-30PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorWithheld for tax1,108123,946Form 4
2026-08-30MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerDisposition96723,746Form 4
2026-08-30SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerWithheld for tax96269,474Form 4
2026-08-30MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerWithheld for tax38023,366Form 4
2026-08-30Cavanah Kevin SofficerOption exercise4,5690Form 4
2026-08-30SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerOption exercise2,5760Form 4
2026-08-30MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerOption exercise9670Form 4
2026-08-30PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorOption exercise2,8170Form 4
2026-08-30PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorOption exercise2,817127,871Form 4
2026-08-30MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerOption exercise96724,713Form 4
2026-08-30Cavanah Kevin SofficerOption exercise4,56986,959Form 4
2026-08-30SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerOption exercise2,57673,012Form 4
2026-08-30PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorOption exercise2,817127,871Form 4
2026-08-30SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerOption exercise2,57673,012Form 4
2026-08-30MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerOption exercise96724,713Form 4
2026-08-30Cavanah Kevin SofficerOption exercise4,56986,959Form 4
2026-08-30PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorOption exercise2,817127,871Form 4
2026-08-30Cavanah Kevin SofficerOption exercise4,56986,959Form 4
2026-08-30MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerOption exercise96724,713Form 4
2026-08-30MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerOption exercise96724,713Form 4
2026-08-30SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerOption exercise2,57673,012Form 4
2026-08-30PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorOption exercise2,817127,871Form 4
2026-08-30SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerOption exercise2,57673,012Form 4
2026-08-30Cavanah Kevin SofficerOption exercise4,56986,959Form 4
2026-08-29Cavanah Kevin SofficerDisposition6,17684,520Form 4
2026-08-29PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorDisposition4,077126,658Form 4
2026-08-29SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerDisposition3,48271,736Form 4
2026-08-29MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerDisposition2,37024,678Form 4
2026-08-29Cavanah Kevin SofficerWithheld for tax2,13082,390Form 4
2026-08-29PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorWithheld for tax1,604125,054Form 4
2026-08-29SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerWithheld for tax1,30070,436Form 4
2026-08-29MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerWithheld for tax93223,746Form 4
2026-08-29Cavanah Kevin SofficerOption exercise6,1766,175Form 4
2026-08-29PAYNE SHAWN PdirectorOption exercise4,0774,077Form 4
2026-08-29MILLER DAVID (JAMES)officerOption exercise2,3702,369Form 4
2026-08-29SHEETS JUSTIN DofficerOption exercise3,4823,482Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.