Issued 2026-09-16 at $248.31 · now $248.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTRN has typically landed between $211.63 and $304.77 — a range of −14.8% to +22.7% from the issuance price $248.31.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($248.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MTRN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $248.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $248.31 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $252.66 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $233.28–$272.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $211.63–$304.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-08 | −49.9% | −49.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-05 | −49.6% | −49.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-21 | +58.9% | +0.0% | +77.3% |
| 2020-03-18 | +57.3% | +0.0% | +63.0% |
| 2008-11-19 | +56.1% | −6.1% | +66.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−2.3%
n=20
Feb
70%
+7.5%
n=20
Mar
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Apr
60%
+7.3%
n=20
May
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.1%
n=20
Jul
55%
+2.2%
n=20
Aug
65%
+2.8%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.3%
n=20
Oct
40%
+0.4%
n=20
Nov
45%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | LIGGETT EMILY M | director | Sale | 1,012 @ $232.42 | $235K | −24.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $235.16 | $470K | −15.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 11,174 @ $290.12 | $3.2M | −8.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,199 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 4,865 @ $294.45 | $1.4M | −4.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,252 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 3,745 @ $292.46 | $1.1M | −2.9% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,454 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Solomon Darlene J. S. | director | Sale | 3,705 @ $292.22 | $1.1M | −12.2% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,718 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 2,337 @ $293.64 | $686K | −1.9% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,117 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Sale | 1,705 @ $293.00 | $500K | −10.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 1,375 @ $287.67 | $396K | −1.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 286 @ $295.17 | $84K | −0.2% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 287 @ $288.29 | $83K | −0.2% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,373 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 267 @ $293.24 | $78K | −0.2% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,699 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | PHILLIPPY ROBERT J | director | Sale | 1,320 @ $217.67 | $287K | −18.4% of holding | +36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,844 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | PHILLIPPY ROBERT J | director | Sale | 1,084 @ $218.59 | $237K | −18.5% of holding | +36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,760 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | PHILLIPPY ROBERT J | director | Sale | 740 @ $219.54 | $162K | −15.5% of holding | +36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,020 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | PHILLIPPY ROBERT J | director | Sale | 356 @ $220.30 | $78K | −8.9% of holding | +36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,664 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Sale | 752 @ $206.68 | $155K | −5.0% of holding | +17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Sale | 735 @ $205.32 | $151K | −4.7% of holding | +17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Sale | 603 @ $208.74 | $126K | −4.4% of holding | +17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Sale | 410 @ $208.03 | $85K | −2.9% of holding | +17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,774 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Sale | 1,192 @ $198.88 | $237K | −7.3% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 3,434 @ $157.26 | $540K | −36.7% of holding | −4.9% | +32.7% | 5,930 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $162.00 | $243K | −9.0% of holding | −4.9% | +32.7% | 15,243 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 1,083 @ $157.51 | $171K | −10.4% of holding | −4.9% | +32.7% | 9,364 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Sale | 1,039 @ $157.26 | $163K | −5.8% of holding | −4.9% | +32.7% | 16,743 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Fashinpaur Melissa A | officer | Sale | 309 @ $160.00 | $49K | −49.9% of holding | −4.9% | +32.7% | 310 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Sale | 5,001 @ $147.00 | $735K | −23.7% of holding | +0.8% | +44.8% | 16,139 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Sale | 3,975 @ $145.03 | $576K | −15.8% of holding | +0.8% | +44.8% | 21,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 5,952 @ $156.22 | $930K | −4.6% of holding | −7.6% | +47.8% | 124,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 4,056 @ $157.03 | $637K | −3.3% of holding | −7.6% | +47.8% | 120,245 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $158.26 | $348K | −1.8% of holding | −7.6% | +47.8% | 118,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 37 @ $159.03 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −7.6% | +47.8% | 118,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 5,254 @ $148.39 | $780K | −3.8% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 133,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $157.09 | $628K | −31.8% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 8,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 2,740 @ $147.42 | $404K | −1.9% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 138,901 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Sale | 2,446 @ $148.67 | $364K | −13.8% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 15,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Sale | 1,554 @ $149.18 | $232K | −10.2% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 13,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 1,575 @ $146.65 | $231K | −1.1% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 141,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 1,311 @ $151.72 | $199K | −1.0% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 130,253 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $150.14 | $180K | −0.9% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 131,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Sale | 883 @ $149.59 | $132K | −0.7% of holding | −4.6% | +59.5% | 132,764 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 864 @ $113.23 | $98K | −7.7% of holding | +9.5% | +62.8% | 10,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | REDDY N MOHAN | director | Sale | 1,155 @ $105.45 | $122K | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | +33.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 2,082 @ $105.40 | $219K | −16.7% of holding | +1.0% | +27.7% | 10,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Fashinpaur Melissa A | officer | Sale | 1,140 @ $105.34 | $120K | −100.0% of holding | +1.0% | +27.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 918 @ $104.65 | $96K | −6.9% of holding | +1.0% | +27.7% | 12,458 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 939 @ $80.86 | $76K | −6.5% of holding | −6.1% | +22.3% | 13,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 930 @ $79.85 | $74K | −6.0% of holding | −6.1% | +22.3% | 14,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 130 @ $81.70 | $11K | −1.0% of holding | −6.1% | +22.3% | 13,377 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Sale | 1 @ $83.33 | $83 | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | +22.3% | 13,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
250 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | SHULAR CRAIG S | director | Award / grant | 31 | 54,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Prevost Patrick M. | director | Award / grant | 10 | 18,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | PHILLIPPY ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 7 | 12,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | LIGGETT EMILY M | director | Award / grant | 1 | 1,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Award / grant | 11 | 19,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Award / grant | 12 | 20,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 3,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Award / grant | 8 | 12,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Fashinpaur Melissa A | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 2,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Toth Robert B | director | Gift | 28,832 | 28,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Toth Robert B | director | Gift | 28,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | LIGGETT EMILY M | director | Gift | 1,609 | 4,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Toth Robert B | director | Gift | 28,832 | 28,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Toth Robert B | director | Gift | 28,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Withheld for tax | 13,146 | 141,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Option exercise | 24,594 | 154,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Withheld for tax | 3,267 | 16,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Option exercise | 2,800 | 18,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Option exercise | 2,172 | 20,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Option exercise | 24,594 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Option exercise | 2,172 | 4,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Option exercise | 2,800 | 1,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | SHULAR CRAIG S | director | Award / grant | 96 | 54,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Prevost Patrick M. | director | Award / grant | 81 | 18,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fashinpaur Melissa A | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Award / grant | 8 | 12,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chemnitz Gregory R. | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 3,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KHILNANI VINOD M | director | Award / grant | 12 | 20,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | LIGGETT EMILY M | director | Award / grant | 1 | 1,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | SHULAR CRAIG S | director | Award / grant | 31 | 54,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | PHILLIPPY ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 7 | 12,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Prevost Patrick M. | director | Award / grant | 9 | 18,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Award / grant | 11 | 19,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Withheld for tax | 15,183 | 129,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Option exercise | 28,071 | 144,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vijayvargiya Jugal K. | director | Option exercise | 28,071 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Withheld for tax | 3,720 | 16,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chadwick Shelly Marie | director | Option exercise | 4,912 | 20,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Toth Robert B | director | Award / grant | 758 | 758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | SHULAR CRAIG S | director | Award / grant | 758 | 758 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.