MTN · TickerCove

MTNVail Resorts, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinosas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $140.12 · now $140.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTN has typically landed between $122.71 and $156.59 — a range of −12.4% to +11.8% from the issuance price $140.12.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($140.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$140.12 · 54% of range

$117.19 low$160.01 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.4%

typical move · IQR 10.1%

−12.4%worst (p90)+11.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MTN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $140.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $140.12 (+0.0%)
typical $138.16 (-1.4%)
middle 50% $131.07–$145.24
90% range $122.71–$156.59

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-10-30	−45.8%	−53.1%	+0.0%
2008-09-10	−45.3%	−45.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−43.7%	−43.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-09	+54.9%	+0.0%	+71.7%
2008-11-20	+52.1%	+0.0%	+54.1%
2009-03-06	+51.1%	−7.9%	+58.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−3.7%

n=20

Feb

60%

+0.2%

n=20

Mar

70%

+2.6%

n=20

Apr

55%

+2.9%

n=20

May

70%

+2.7%

n=20

Jun

45%

−0.3%

n=20

Jul

60%

+1.6%

n=20

Aug

55%

+2.2%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.2%

n=20

Oct

65%

+1.7%

n=20

Nov

60%

+3.0%

n=20

Dec

40%

+0.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-16	KATZ ROBERT A	director	Purchase	37,500 @ $131.81	$4.9M	+15.1% of holding	−6.4%	−6.1%	285,312	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16	Korch Angela A	officer	Purchase	190 @ $131.85	$25K	+3.6% of holding	−6.4%	−6.1%	5,539	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-07	Korch Angela A	officer	Purchase	210 @ $155.00	$33K	+4.5% of holding	−4.2%	−12.8%	4,905	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-20	Korch Angela A	officer	Purchase	200 @ $157.00	$31K	+6.8% of holding	+0.9%	−12.8%	3,156	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-13	Korch Angela A	officer	Purchase	185 @ $160.00	$30K	+6.7% of holding	−6.6%	−27.7%	2,956	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-16	Vaughn Peter A	director	Sale	922 @ $191.95	$177K	−10.8% of holding	−5.1%	−14.9%	7,651	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16	Vaughn Peter A	director	Sale	78 @ $192.61	$15K	−1.0% of holding	−5.1%	−14.9%	7,573	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

143 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-03	HORNBUCKLE WILLIAM	director	Award / grant	249	249	Form 4
2026-06-04	KATZ ROBERT A	director	Withheld for tax	589	286,771	Form 4
2026-06-04	KATZ ROBERT A	director	Option exercise	2,048	4,096	Form 4
2026-06-04	KATZ ROBERT A	director	Option exercise	2,048	287,360	Form 4
2026-05-01	DeCecco Julie A.	officer	Withheld for tax	21	1,776	Form 4
2026-05-01	DeCecco Julie A.	officer	Option exercise	73	1,797	Form 4
2026-05-01	DeCecco Julie A.	officer	Option exercise	73	73	Form 4
2026-02-01	Korch Angela A	officer	Withheld for tax	235	5,349	Form 4
2026-02-01	Korch Angela A	officer	Withheld for tax	202	5,111	Form 4
2026-02-01	BURGOYNE CELESTE	officer	Award / grant	38,665	38,665	Form 4
2026-02-01	BURGOYNE CELESTE	officer	Award / grant	17,281	17,281	Form 4
2026-02-01	BURGOYNE CELESTE	officer	Award / grant	24,393	24,393	Form 4
2026-02-01	BURGOYNE CELESTE	officer	Award / grant	9,875	9,875	Form 4
2026-02-01	Korch Angela A	officer	Option exercise	408	5,313	Form 4
2026-02-01	Korch Angela A	officer	Option exercise	473	5,584	Form 4
2026-02-01	Korch Angela A	officer	Option exercise	408	0	Form 4
2026-02-01	Korch Angela A	officer	Option exercise	473	0	Form 4
2025-11-01	DeCecco Julie A.	officer	Withheld for tax	31	1,724	Form 4
2025-11-01	DeCecco Julie A.	officer	Option exercise	106	1,755	Form 4
2025-11-01	DeCecco Julie A.	officer	Option exercise	106	212	Form 4
2025-10-06	Vaughn Peter A	director	Gift	70	8,784	Form 4
2025-09-30	KATZ ROBERT A	director	Award / grant	50,899	50,899	Form 4
2025-09-30	Chambers Reginald	director	Award / grant	1,563	1,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	DECKER SUSAN L	director	Award / grant	1,563	1,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	DeCecco Julie A.	officer	Award / grant	3,876	3,876	Form 4
2025-09-30	DeCecco Julie A.	officer	Award / grant	15,421	15,421	Form 4
2025-09-30	KATZ ROBERT A	director	Award / grant	11,305	11,305	Form 4
2025-09-30	Knobloch Iris	director	Award / grant	1,563	1,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	Korch Angela A	officer	Award / grant	5,867	5,867	Form 4
2025-09-30	Korch Angela A	officer	Award / grant	23,341	23,341	Form 4
2025-09-30	Kunkel Lynanne	officer	Award / grant	5,068	5,068	Form 4
2025-09-30	Kunkel Lynanne	officer	Award / grant	20,164	20,164	Form 4
2025-09-30	SEWELL D BRUCE	director	Award / grant	1,563	1,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	SCHNEIDER HILARY	director	Award / grant	1,563	1,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	Vaughn Peter A	director	Award / grant	1,563	1,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	Sullivan Gregory Jon	officer	Award / grant	2,642	2,642	Form 4
2025-09-30	Sullivan Gregory Jon	officer	Award / grant	10,514	10,514	Form 4
2025-09-30	Romanow Michele	director	Award / grant	1,563	1,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	Rawlinson Nadia Nicole	director	Award / grant	1,563	1,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	Rock William	officer	Award / grant	4,349	4,349	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i