MTHMeritage Homes CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $63.96 · now $63.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTH has typically landed between $54.92 and $75.42 — a range of −14.1% to +17.9% from the issuance price $63.96.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($63.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MTH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $63.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$54.92worst · -14.1%$75.42best · +17.9%
  • now $63.96 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $64.24 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $59.28–$69.2
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $54.92–$75.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-29−62.7%−62.7%+7.1%
2020-02-18−62.0%−62.0%+1.2%
2020-02-21−59.7%−62.4%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-19+108.0%−6.1%+116.0%
2008-01-18+98.6%+0.0%+120.7%
2009-03-30+89.8%−0.6%+89.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+3.6%
n=20
Feb
30%
−1.5%
n=20
Mar
60%
+0.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
+8.8%
n=20
May
60%
+1.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Jul
60%
+5.0%
n=20
Aug
40%
+0.3%
n=20
Sep
40%
−3.9%
n=20
Oct
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.6%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$85$582026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $79K — Sasser Alison2026-02-24: 2 insider sales, $23K — Sasser Alison, Woffinden Austin M2026-02-23: 14 insider sales, $4.4M — Lord Phillippe, Sferruzza Hilla, Clinton Malissia, HILTON STEVEN J …2026-02-20: 2 insider sales, $33K — Woffinden Austin M, Sasser Alison2026-02-18: 3 insider sales, $506K — Lord Phillippe, Sasser Alison, Woffinden Austin M2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $556K — Lord Phillippe2025-08-12: 2 insider sales, $467K — Clinton Malissia …2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-02: 21 open-market sales, $4.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $79K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Sasser Alison — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sasser Alison — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Woffinden Austin M — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lord Phillippe — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lord Phillippe — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sferruzza Hilla — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sferruzza Hilla — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Clinton Malissia — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HILTON STEVEN J — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Feliciano Javier — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HILTON STEVEN J — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Feliciano Javier — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Clinton Malissia — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Clinton Malissia — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sferruzza Hilla — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lord Phillippe — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Feliciano Javier — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Woffinden Austin M — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Sasser Alison — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Lord Phillippe — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sasser Alison — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Woffinden Austin M — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lord Phillippe — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector Clinton Malissia — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed same daydirector Clinton Malissia — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-12Sasser AlisonofficerSale1,273 @ $62.11$79K−14.3% of holding+17.8%not yet — horizon still open7,634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Sasser AlisonofficerSale151 @ $76.80$12K−1.7% of holding−15.7%−15.9%8,907Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Woffinden Austin MofficerSale143 @ $76.80$11K−0.7% of holding−15.7%−15.9%20,595Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Lord PhillippedirectorSale25,963 @ $76.60$2.0M−9.1% of holding−16.0%−16.7%260,558Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Lord PhillippedirectorSale6,688 @ $76.05$509K−2.3% of holding−16.0%−16.7%286,521Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Sferruzza HilladirectorSale5,618 @ $76.62$430K−4.3% of holding−16.0%−16.7%125,161Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Sferruzza HilladirectorSale5,110 @ $76.00$388K−3.8% of holding−16.0%−16.7%130,779Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Clinton MalissiadirectorSale4,405 @ $75.90$334K−18.1% of holding−16.0%−16.7%19,983Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23HILTON STEVEN JdirectorSale4,235 @ $75.97$322K−0.5% of holding−16.0%−16.7%842,203Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Feliciano JavierofficerSale2,910 @ $75.99$221K−6.0% of holding−16.0%−16.7%45,605Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23HILTON STEVEN JdirectorSale600 @ $77.29$46K−0.1% of holding−16.0%−16.7%841,603Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Feliciano JavierofficerSale555 @ $77.20$43K−1.2% of holding−16.0%−16.7%45,050Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Clinton MalissiadirectorSale548 @ $77.05$42K−2.7% of holding−16.0%−16.7%19,435Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Clinton MalissiadirectorSale232 @ $77.82$18K−1.2% of holding−16.0%−16.7%19,203Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Sferruzza HilladirectorSale200 @ $77.59$16K−0.2% of holding−16.0%−16.7%124,961Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Lord PhillippedirectorSale169 @ $77.81$13K−0.1% of holding−16.0%−16.7%260,389Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Feliciano JavierofficerSale115 @ $77.86$9K−0.3% of holding−16.0%−16.7%44,935Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20Woffinden Austin MofficerSale263 @ $78.16$21K−1.3% of holding−15.9%−18.2%20,215Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-20Sasser AlisonofficerSale158 @ $78.16$12K−1.8% of holding−15.9%−18.2%8,508Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-18Lord PhillippedirectorSale5,000 @ $80.07$400K−2.3% of holding−19.4%−17.4%216,320Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Sasser AlisonofficerSale680 @ $79.46$54K−7.8% of holding−19.4%−17.4%8,093Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Woffinden Austin MofficerSale647 @ $79.46$51K−3.2% of holding−19.4%−17.4%19,523Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22Lord PhillippedirectorSale6,950 @ $80.01$556K−3.0% of holding−11.4%−9.2%221,320Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-12Clinton MalissiadirectorSale5,361 @ $71.49$383K−35.1% of holding+6.5%−2.3%9,906Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-12Clinton MalissiadirectorSale1,157 @ $72.05$83K−11.7% of holding+6.5%−2.3%8,749Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-25ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorPurchase2,200 @ $70.00$154K+30.1% of holding+11.4%−5.4%9,512Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12Keough JosephdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $66.16$265K+10.6% of holding+2.7%−3.4%41,700Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13Keough JosephdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $69.28$346K+15.3% of holding−4.4%−5.0%37,700Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Lord PhillippedirectorSale20,619 @ $71.71$1.5M−8.3% of holding+4.8%−1.1%229,047Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Lord PhillippedirectorSale14,771 @ $70.66$1.0M−5.6% of holding+4.8%−1.1%249,666Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Sferruzza HilladirectorSale13,621 @ $71.77$978K−11.1% of holding+4.8%−1.1%109,313Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Szubinski ClintonofficerSale12,307 @ $71.79$884K−20.2% of holding+4.8%−1.1%48,536Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Feliciano JavierofficerSale4,562 @ $72.04$329K−11.1% of holding+4.8%−1.1%36,578Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Sferruzza HilladirectorSale946 @ $72.37$68K−0.9% of holding+4.8%−1.1%108,367Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Lord PhillippedirectorSale777 @ $72.39$56K−0.3% of holding+4.8%−1.1%228,270Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Szubinski ClintonofficerSale752 @ $72.38$54K−1.5% of holding+4.8%−1.1%47,784Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Feliciano JavierofficerSale300 @ $72.54$22K−0.8% of holding+4.8%−1.1%36,278Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Sasser AlisonofficerSale152 @ $73.63$11K−2.3% of holding+4.9%+1.5%6,330Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19Sasser AlisonofficerSale676 @ $72.03$49K−10.2% of holding+5.9%−1.0%5,933Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Szubinski ClintonofficerSale595 @ $73.29$44K−1.9% of holding+2.9%−1.1%30,547Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Sasser AlisonofficerSale260 @ $73.29$19K−5.9% of holding+2.9%−1.1%4,166Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10HILTON STEVEN JdirectorPurchase11,000 @ $74.51$820K+1.4% of holding+4.4%−5.6%811,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10HILTON STEVEN JdirectorSale11,000 @ $74.51$820K−1.4% of holding+4.4%−5.6%800,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-31ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorPurchase20 @ $77.21$2K+0.3% of holding−3.0%−16.1%7,220Form 4 · filed 210 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-12HILTON STEVEN JdirectorGift11,000830,603Form 4
2026-05-12HILTON STEVEN JdirectorGift11,000841,603Form 4
2026-03-23Woffinden Austin MofficerAward / grant7,84515,506Form 4
2026-03-23Lord PhillippedirectorAward / grant48,907118,613Form 4
2026-03-23Clinton MalissiadirectorAward / grant7,76020,167Form 4
2026-03-23Sferruzza HilladirectorAward / grant14,67238,185Form 4
2026-03-23Feliciano JavierofficerAward / grant7,34618,456Form 4
2026-03-23HILTON STEVEN JdirectorAward / grant8,15121,418Form 4
2026-02-20Clinton MalissiadirectorAward / grant8,00124,388Form 4
2026-02-20Lord PhillippedirectorAward / grant39,341293,209Form 4
2026-02-20HILTON STEVEN JdirectorAward / grant5,925846,438Form 4
2026-02-20Feliciano JavierofficerAward / grant6,25948,515Form 4
2026-02-20Sferruzza HilladirectorAward / grant14,080135,889Form 4
2026-02-19Keough JosephdirectorAward / grant3,1003,100Form 4
2026-02-19AX PETER LdirectorAward / grant3,1009,300Form 4
2026-02-19BRADFORD DANAdirectorAward / grant3,1009,300Form 4
2026-02-19HENRETTA DEBORAH AdirectorAward / grant3,1009,300Form 4
2026-02-19Lantz Erin NdirectorAward / grant3,1003,100Form 4
2026-02-19CALDERA LOUIS EdirectorAward / grant3,1003,100Form 4
2026-02-19Williams Geisha JdirectorAward / grant3,1003,100Form 4
2026-02-19Michael R. OdelldirectorAward / grant3,1009,300Form 4
2026-02-19Mooney P. KellydirectorAward / grant3,1003,100Form 4
2026-02-18Sasser AlisonofficerAward / grant2,65810,103Form 4
2026-02-18Lord PhillippedirectorGift5,0000Form 4
2026-02-18Lord PhillippedirectorGift5,000221,320Form 4
2025-08-10Clinton MalissiadirectorAward / grant8,62315,267Form 4
2025-06-30ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorCode L477,312Form 4
2025-03-31ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorCode L457,265Form 4
2025-03-10Lord PhillippedirectorGift3,950228,270Form 4
2025-03-10Lord PhillippedirectorGift3,950224,320Form 4
2025-02-28Szubinski ClintonofficerAward / grant17,11060,843Form 4
2025-02-28Feliciano JavierofficerAward / grant7,07441,140Form 4
2025-02-28Sferruzza HilladirectorAward / grant19,086122,934Form 4
2025-02-28Lord PhillippedirectorAward / grant47,387264,437Form 4
2025-02-28HILTON STEVEN JdirectorAward / grant9,907831,243Form 4
2025-02-20CALDERA LOUIS EdirectorAward / grant3,2006,200Form 4
2025-02-20BRADFORD DANAdirectorAward / grant3,20010,400Form 4
2025-02-20AX PETER LdirectorAward / grant3,20010,400Form 4
2025-02-20Feliciano JavierofficerAward / grant5,72622,540Form 4
2025-02-20HENRETTA DEBORAH AdirectorAward / grant3,20010,400Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.