Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.50 · now $29.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTG has typically landed between $26.50 and $33.05 — a range of −10.2% to +12.0% from the issuance price $29.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MTG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $29.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.99 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.55–$31.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.5–$33.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −72.6% | −72.6% | +7.3% |
| 2008-10-01 | −71.4% | −74.8% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-08 | −71.4% | −71.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-06 | +227.4% | +0.0% | +227.4% |
| 2009-03-12 | +186.7% | +0.0% | +186.7% |
| 2009-04-08 | +181.9% | −1.9% | +181.9% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
−1.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.0%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+5.0%
n=19
May
53%
+3.0%
n=19
Jun
53%
−4.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+5.5%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Nov
67%
+0.7%
n=18
Dec
67%
+9.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $30.73 | $922K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 470,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Maggio Paula C | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $30.30 | $606K | −11.8% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,620 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 137,113 @ $30.52 | $4.2M | −12.3% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 980,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $29.70 | $891K | −5.7% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 500,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $28.23 | $847K | −5.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 530,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Colson Nathaniel H | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $27.10 | $542K | −5.5% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 341,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $25.38 | $761K | −5.1% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 560,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Maggio Paula C | officer | Sale | 20,937 @ $25.55 | $535K | −11.0% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,620 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 139,202 @ $26.49 | $3.7M | −11.1% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,118,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 10,931 @ $26.25 | $287K | −1.8% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 590,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $27.04 | $811K | −3.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 731,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Maggio Paula C | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $27.51 | $550K | −14.8% of holding | −0.9% | +4.4% | 114,689 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $27.27 | $818K | −6.2% of holding | −0.3% | +2.5% | 454,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 63,053 @ $25.89 | $1.6M | −6.6% of holding | +8.5% | +6.3% | 898,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 52,145 @ $27.18 | $1.4M | −5.8% of holding | +8.5% | +6.3% | 846,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 11,240 @ $25.90 | $291K | −1.3% of holding | +8.5% | +6.3% | 832,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 9,203 @ $27.18 | $250K | −1.1% of holding | +8.5% | +6.3% | 823,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 3,020 @ $27.80 | $84K | −0.4% of holding | +8.5% | +6.3% | 843,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 542 @ $27.77 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +8.5% | +6.3% | 822,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $29.13 | $874K | −23.2% of holding | −11.3% | −12.2% | 99,401 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $28.40 | $852K | −18.8% of holding | +1.9% | −23.4% | 129,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $27.52 | $826K | −15.8% of holding | +2.6% | −11.0% | 159,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Maggio Paula C | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $27.44 | $549K | −14.6% of holding | +4.1% | −10.0% | 117,395 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 139,203 @ $27.09 | $3.8M | −12.6% of holding | +2.5% | +1.6% | 961,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $28.15 | $845K | −13.7% of holding | −3.8% | −3.3% | 189,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $27.66 | $830K | −12.0% of holding | −3.7% | −9.9% | 219,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Mattke Timothy J. | director | Sale | 139,203 @ $26.54 | $3.7M | −11.2% of holding | +4.7% | −6.1% | 1,100,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Maggio Paula C | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $26.54 | $531K | −12.7% of holding | +3.6% | −11.1% | 137,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $26.22 | $787K | −10.7% of holding | +3.5% | −6.5% | 249,401 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $28.15 | $845K | −9.7% of holding | −10.5% | −5.7% | 279,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Miosi Salvatore A | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $26.04 | $781K | −8.8% of holding | −0.2% | −7.6% | 309,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Maggio Paula C | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $26.49 | $530K | −11.3% of holding | +1.5% | −8.3% | 157,395 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
268 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | O'Leary-Gill Daniela | director | Award / grant | 28 | 6,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | O'Leary-Gill Daniela | director | Award / grant | 28 | 6,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sculley Sheryl L. | director | Award / grant | 130 | 35,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sculley Sheryl L. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 19,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thompson Michael Leal | director | Award / grant | 28 | 18,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Zandi Mark | director | Award / grant | 28 | 33,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Zandi Mark | director | Award / grant | 268 | 48,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Hartzell Jay C. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 19,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sculley Sheryl L. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 19,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Hartzell Jay C. | director | Award / grant | 195 | 35,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Hartzell Jay C. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 19,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lowman Teresita M. | director | Award / grant | 189 | 34,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lowman Teresita M. | director | Award / grant | 189 | 34,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thompson Michael Leal | director | Award / grant | 28 | 18,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sculley Sheryl L. | director | Award / grant | 130 | 35,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sculley Sheryl L. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 19,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Zandi Mark | director | Award / grant | 28 | 33,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Zandi Mark | director | Award / grant | 268 | 48,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CHAPLIN C EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 145 | 44,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CHAPLIN C EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 276 | 50,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CULVER CURT S | director | Award / grant | 28 | 21,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Hartzell Jay C. | director | Award / grant | 195 | 35,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Hartzell Jay C. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 19,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Klein Martin P | director | Award / grant | 36 | 6,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lowman Teresita M. | director | Award / grant | 189 | 34,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CULVER CURT S | director | Award / grant | 28 | 21,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CHAPLIN C EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 145 | 44,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CHAPLIN C EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 276 | 50,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thompson Michael Leal | director | Award / grant | 28 | 18,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Zandi Mark | director | Award / grant | 28 | 33,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Zandi Mark | director | Award / grant | 268 | 48,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Klein Martin P | director | Award / grant | 36 | 6,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sculley Sheryl L. | director | Award / grant | 130 | 35,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sculley Sheryl L. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 19,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Hartzell Jay C. | director | Award / grant | 195 | 35,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lowman Teresita M. | director | Award / grant | 189 | 34,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CULVER CURT S | director | Award / grant | 28 | 21,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CHAPLIN C EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 145 | 44,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CHAPLIN C EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 276 | 50,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Hartzell Jay C. | director | Award / grant | 195 | 35,622 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2023-09-14 | 2023-08-07 | $100–250K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2020-05-13 | 2020-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2020-05-13 | 2020-04-07 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.