Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.73 · now $57.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTDR has typically landed between $46.97 and $69.76 — a range of −18.6% to +20.8% from the issuance price $57.73.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,654 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-02-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MTDR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $57.73 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.5 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.32–$63.68
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $46.97–$69.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,654 windows spanning 2012-02-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-14 | −90.7% | −90.7% | +1.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −89.0% | −89.0% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-18 | −87.6% | −90.4% | +4.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-30 | +201.0% | −2.9% | +201.0% |
| 2020-04-01 | +200.5% | +0.0% | +226.3% |
| 2020-03-18 | +185.5% | +0.0% | +185.5% |
3,654 overlapping windows · 2012-02-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+5.1%
n=14
Feb
50%
+1.2%
n=14
Mar
67%
−0.6%
n=15
Apr
73%
+16.0%
n=15
May
53%
−0.5%
n=15
Jun
60%
+4.2%
n=15
Jul
67%
+2.2%
n=15
Aug
60%
+3.9%
n=15
Sep
40%
−1.3%
n=15
Oct
43%
+0.2%
n=14
Nov
57%
+4.1%
n=14
Dec
36%
−2.7%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Calvert Christopher P | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $56.64 | $142K | +6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 555 @ $54.49 | $30K | +13.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,772 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 400 @ $53.64 | $21K | +1.3% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,017 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $51.44 | $257K | +19.5% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $52.16 | $522K | +64.0% of holding | +17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,617 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 709 @ $51.68 | $37K | +4.8% of holding | +18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 3,130 @ $51.04 | $160K | +26.6% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,908 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Elsener William Thomas | officer | Purchase | 850 @ $50.94 | $43K | +0.7% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Baty Robert Gaines | director | Purchase | 500 @ $51.44 | $26K | +0.6% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $53.07 | $106K | +21.1% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Stetson Glenn W | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $53.41 | $27K | +0.5% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Ehrman Monika U | director | Purchase | 362 @ $55.28 | $20K | +0.9% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,825 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $56.25 | $113K | +26.7% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Calvert Christopher P | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $53.24 | $80K | +3.8% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 482 @ $52.70 | $25K | +6.9% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Colodney Benjamin T | officer | Purchase | 250 @ $53.41 | $13K | +10.4% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,650 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Stetson Glenn W | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $53.94 | $27K | +0.5% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,970 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 4,675 @ $52.36 | $245K | +201.3% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Ehrman Monika U | director | Purchase | 267 @ $56.29 | $15K | +0.6% of holding | +16.2% | −8.6% | 41,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 468 @ $49.78 | $23K | +25.2% of holding | +33.8% | −1.5% | 2,322 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Macalik Robert T | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $38.25 | $57K | +4.5% of holding | +16.2% | +41.2% | 35,039 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Appel Shelley F | director | Purchase | 1,200 @ $38.00 | $46K | +55.8% of holding | +16.2% | +41.2% | 3,350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-06 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $38.14 | $38K | +4.4% of holding | +16.2% | +41.2% | 23,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Singleton Van H II | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $38.28 | $19K | +0.2% of holding | +16.2% | +41.2% | 292,918 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Appel Shelley F | director | Purchase | 189 @ $38.10 | $7K | +3.9% of holding | +16.2% | +41.2% | 5,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | Appel Shelley F | director | Purchase | 1,338 @ $37.52 | $50K | +2.0% of holding | +21.6% | +42.7% | 66,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Appel Shelley F | director | Purchase | 153 @ $37.55 | $6K | +3.2% of holding | +21.6% | +42.7% | 4,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $38.44 | $154K | +21.2% of holding | +14.9% | +36.9% | 22,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Baribault Reynald | director | Purchase | 400 @ $38.49 | $15K | +6.1% of holding | +14.9% | +36.9% | 6,915 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Ward Susan M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $39.04 | $195K | +50.4% of holding | +13.8% | +41.7% | 14,923 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Calvert Christopher P | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $39.44 | $99K | +6.7% of holding | +13.8% | +41.7% | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Singleton Van H II | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $39.46 | $39K | +0.3% of holding | +13.8% | +41.7% | 292,418 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Appel Shelley F | director | Purchase | 510 @ $39.25 | $20K | +0.8% of holding | +13.8% | +41.7% | 65,521 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-31 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 1,342 @ $39.30 | $53K | +7.7% of holding | +9.9% | +55.5% | 18,867 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Macalik Robert T | officer | Purchase | 1,039 @ $39.40 | $41K | +3.2% of holding | +9.9% | +55.5% | 33,539 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Erman Bryan A | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $39.60 | $40K | +1.3% of holding | +9.9% | +55.5% | 77,518 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Appel Shelley F | director | Purchase | 636 @ $39.30 | $25K | +1.0% of holding | +9.9% | +55.5% | 65,011 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Elsener William Thomas | officer | Purchase | 600 @ $39.51 | $24K | +0.5% of holding | +9.9% | +55.5% | 112,669 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Baty Robert Gaines | director | Purchase | 500 @ $39.51 | $20K | +0.7% of holding | +9.9% | +55.5% | 73,396 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 9,500 @ $39.78 | $378K | +118.4% of holding | +11.6% | +58.9% | 17,525 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Appel Shelley F | director | Purchase | 1,784 @ $39.85 | $71K | ownership Δ n/a | +11.6% | +58.9% | 1,784 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Appel Shelley F | director | Purchase | 1,555 @ $39.90 | $62K | +2.5% of holding | +11.6% | +58.9% | 64,375 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Harvey Paul W | director | Purchase | 800 @ $40.30 | $32K | +5.3% of holding | +11.6% | +58.9% | 15,767 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Stetson Glenn W | officer | Purchase | 700 @ $39.95 | $28K | +0.7% of holding | +11.6% | +58.9% | 94,652 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Colodney Benjamin T | officer | Purchase | 100 @ $39.35 | $4K | +1.0% of holding | +11.6% | +58.9% | 9,840 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $48.15 | $96K | +33.2% of holding | −9.9% | +18.0% | 8,025 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Calvert Christopher P | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $47.77 | $48K | +2.7% of holding | −9.9% | +18.0% | 37,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Stetson Glenn W | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $48.52 | $24K | +0.5% of holding | −9.9% | +18.0% | 93,952 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Erman Bryan A | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $47.99 | $24K | +13.3% of holding | −9.9% | +18.0% | 4,250 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Lambert William D | officer | Purchase | 150 @ $48.04 | $7K | +30.0% of holding | −9.9% | +18.0% | 650 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Colodney Benjamin T | officer | Purchase | 130 @ $47.89 | $6K | +5.7% of holding | −9.9% | +18.0% | 2,400 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Elsener William Thomas | officer | Purchase | 600 @ $48.46 | $29K | +0.5% of holding | −12.8% | +18.3% | 112,069 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Ehrman Monika U | director | Purchase | 250 @ $47.04 | $12K | +0.6% of holding | −9.9% | +12.1% | 41,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $46.25 | $93K | +30.3% of holding | −0.6% | +6.7% | 8,606 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $49.17 | $246K | +311.3% of holding | +4.8% | −19.7% | 6,606 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $39.63 | $99K | +4.3% of holding | +8.4% | −27.3% | 60,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Baty Robert Gaines | director | Purchase | 500 @ $40.63 | $20K | +0.7% of holding | +5.7% | −24.1% | 68,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Ehrman Monika U | director | Purchase | 300 @ $40.31 | $12K | +0.8% of holding | +5.7% | −24.1% | 36,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $39.93 | $100K | +4.5% of holding | +8.6% | −21.6% | 58,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Calvert Christopher P | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $41.13 | $62K | +4.3% of holding | +2.1% | −24.0% | 36,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | STEWART KENNETH L. | director | Gift | 9,400 | 84,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Harvey Paul W | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 7,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ward Susan M | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 18,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | STEWART KENNETH L. | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 94,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | PARKER TIMOTHY E. | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 93,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Byerley William M | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 59,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ehrman Monika U | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 45,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Baty Robert Gaines | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 77,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Baribault Reynald | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 18,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Appel Shelley F | director | Award / grant | 3,642 | 70,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Colodney Benjamin T | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Colodney Benjamin T | officer | Option exercise | 1,072 | 2,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Colodney Benjamin T | officer | Withheld for tax | 447 | 9,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Macalik Robert T | officer | Award / grant | 27,000 | 27,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Calvert Christopher P | officer | Award / grant | 27,000 | 27,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Stetson Glenn W | officer | Award / grant | 27,000 | 27,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Erman Bryan A | officer | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Singleton Van H II | officer | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Elsener William Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 27,000 | 27,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Calvert Christopher P | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,050 | 85,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Stetson Glenn W | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,050 | 94,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Elsener William Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,050 | 113,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Erman Bryan A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,050 | 78,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Macalik Robert T | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,050 | 108,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Krug George G | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Singleton Van H II | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Macalik Robert T | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,312 | 109,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Stetson Glenn W | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,312 | 95,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Calvert Christopher P | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,312 | 86,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Krug George G | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Krug George G | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 13,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Macalik Robert T | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Elsener William Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Elsener William Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Stetson Glenn W | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Foran Joseph Wm | director | Option exercise | 13,333 | 26,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Singleton Van H II | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 13,334 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.