Issued 2026-09-16 at $1378.69 · now $1378.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTD has typically landed between $1205.40 and $1558.04 — a range of −12.6% to +13.0% from the issuance price $1378.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1378.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MTD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,379 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,379 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,376 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,295–$1,458
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1,205–$1,558
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-05 | −32.7% | −32.7% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-04 | −32.1% | −32.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −31.4% | −31.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-01 | +46.4% | +0.0% | +46.4% |
| 2009-04-08 | +44.7% | +0.0% | +44.7% |
| 2009-04-07 | +44.6% | +0.0% | +45.3% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$26.8B
market cap
$42.71
EPS (TTM)
31.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$4.0B
'20'25
Net income$869M
'20'25
Free cash flow$849M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr21.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-3677.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-99.14
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$646.83
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$1,172
- Analyst target · range $1,194–$1,500$1,400
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$1,379
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+2.0%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.9%
n=19
May
58%
+1.6%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
83%
+6.5%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Sale | 942 @ $1425.00 | $1.3M | −17.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,480 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Sale | 417 @ $1440.41 | $601K | −58.8% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Sale | 2,240 @ $1432.00 | $3.2M | −28.6% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Sale | 415 @ $1444.62 | $600K | −58.7% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Keller Gerry | officer | Sale | 240 @ $1427.14 | $343K | −48.1% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Sale | 800 @ $1410.12 | $1.1M | −13.1% of holding | −12.8% | −9.4% | 5,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Sale | 3,580 @ $1480.00 | $5.3M | −57.4% of holding | −8.3% | −34.3% | 2,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Sale | 2,475 @ $1500.00 | $3.7M | −93.0% of holding | −8.3% | −34.3% | 187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $1511.00 | $1.5M | −15.9% of holding | −8.3% | −34.3% | 5,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Sale | 1,025 @ $1452.00 | $1.5M | −16.2% of holding | −7.1% | −34.3% | 5,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Keller Gerry | officer | Sale | 236 @ $1418.58 | $335K | −59.7% of holding | −7.3% | −39.2% | 159 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Sale | 925 @ $1463.88 | $1.4M | −20.1% of holding | −3.5% | −37.5% | 3,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Sale | 583 @ $1460.60 | $852K | −10.3% of holding | −3.5% | −37.5% | 5,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Sale | 442 @ $1462.26 | $646K | −8.8% of holding | −3.5% | −37.5% | 4,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Sale | 50 @ $1461.20 | $73K | −1.0% of holding | −3.5% | −37.5% | 5,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Sale | 6,880 @ $1450.00 | $10.0M | −97.4% of holding | −2.5% | −38.1% | 187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Sale | 1,855 @ $1455.47 | $2.7M | −25.8% of holding | −2.5% | −38.1% | 5,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1457.89 | $58K | −0.8% of holding | −2.5% | −38.1% | 5,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | FINNEY ELISHA W | director | Sale | 474 @ $1433.57 | $680K | −60.4% of holding | −2.8% | −38.0% | 311 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Sale | 300 @ $1325.00 | $398K | −5.6% of holding | −6.2% | −3.5% | 5,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Keller Gerry | officer | Sale | 165 @ $1308.64 | $216K | −63.7% of holding | −6.5% | −2.7% | 94 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Sale | 636 @ $1300.30 | $827K | −47.3% of holding | −6.8% | −3.7% | 709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Sale | 341 @ $1301.55 | $444K | −48.1% of holding | −6.8% | −3.7% | 368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Sale | 85 @ $1302.83 | $111K | −23.1% of holding | −6.8% | −3.7% | 283 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Sale | 300 @ $1254.09 | $376K | −5.6% of holding | +0.3% | +0.4% | 5,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Kelly Michael A | director | Sale | 1,062 @ $1159.93 | $1.2M | −89.8% of holding | −2.6% | +14.6% | 120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Magloth Christian | officer | Sale | 790 @ $1313.69 | $1.0M | −51.8% of holding | −5.4% | −9.8% | 734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Sale | 689 @ $1331.42 | $917K | −77.6% of holding | −0.9% | −7.8% | 199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Sale | 199 @ $1333.52 | $265K | −100.0% of holding | −0.9% | −7.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Keller Gerry | officer | Sale | 564 @ $1351.41 | $762K | −98.9% of holding | −1.7% | −10.4% | 6 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Keller Gerry | officer | Sale | 36 @ $1350.29 | $49K | −5.9% of holding | −1.7% | −10.4% | 570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | SHUMAN-FABBRI NATALIA | director | Award / grant | 16 | 16 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 942 | 5,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 942 | 4,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Option exercise | 417 | 709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Option exercise | 417 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 2,240 | 7,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Keller Gerry | officer | Option exercise | 240 | 499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Option exercise | 415 | 707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Keller Gerry | officer | Option exercise | 240 | 235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SALICE THOMAS P | director | Option exercise | 415 | 417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 2,240 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Wittorf Oliver | officer | Award / grant | 215 | 215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Graham-Bryce Susan | officer | Award / grant | 175 | 175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Graham-Bryce Susan | officer | Award / grant | 71 | 517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Wong Ann Ping Richard | officer | Award / grant | 255 | 255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 720 | 720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Wittorf Oliver | officer | Award / grant | 87 | 495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Wong Ann Ping Richard | officer | Award / grant | 103 | 645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 810 | 4,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 2,005 | 2,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Keller Gerry | officer | Award / grant | 100 | 259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Keller Gerry | officer | Award / grant | 250 | 250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 291 | 5,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | TOKICH MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 50 | 50 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | TOKICH MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 130 | 130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 6,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 2,240 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Option exercise | 2,475 | 6,242 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Option exercise | 3,580 | 3,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 6,288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 3,040 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Option exercise | 3,580 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | de la Guerroniere Marc | officer | Option exercise | 2,475 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 1,025 | 6,313 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Vadala Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 1,025 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Keller Gerry | officer | Option exercise | 230 | 389 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Keller Gerry | officer | Option exercise | 6 | 395 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Keller Gerry | officer | Option exercise | 6 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Keller Gerry | officer | Option exercise | 230 | 475 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Kaltenbach Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 5,670 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-12-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-31 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-04-28 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.