MTCHMatch Group, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $43.58 · now $43.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTCH has typically landed between $35.27 and $50.75 — a range of −19.1% to +16.5% from the issuance price $43.58.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($43.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MTCH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $43.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$35.27worst · -19.1%$50.75best · +16.5%
  • now $43.58 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.83 (-1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $39.82–$45.84
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.27–$50.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−37.0%−37.0%+0.0%
2020-02-21−33.7%−35.6%+0.0%
2016-01-06−33.2%−33.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+64.3%+0.0%+64.3%
2020-03-20+62.4%+0.0%+69.0%
2020-03-19+57.6%−6.7%+57.6%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
53%
−1.3%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.8%
n=19
May
58%
+2.4%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+5.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Sep
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Oct
44%
−1.5%
n=18
Nov
44%
−1.9%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$44$292026-09-02: 1 insider sale, $150K — MCDANIEL ANN2026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $625K — Eigenmann Philip D2026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $201K — Bailey Stephen2026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $110K — Schiffman Glenn2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $185K — Brenner Melissa Anne2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $498K2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $663K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $245K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $446K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.8M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $185K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $110K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $827K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $150K↑ buys↓ salesdirector MCDANIEL ANN — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Eigenmann Philip D — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed same daydirector Bailey Stephen — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schiffman Glenn — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Brenner Melissa Anne — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02MCDANIEL ANNdirectorSale3,531 @ $42.43$150K−11.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open26,839Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-28Eigenmann Philip DofficerSale15,000 @ $41.70$625K−43.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open19,389Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26Bailey StephendirectorSale4,760 @ $42.26$201K−28.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open11,742Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11Schiffman GlenndirectorPurchase3,000 @ $36.63$110K+5.6% of holding+15.3%not yet — horizon still open56,370Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Brenner Melissa AnnedirectorSale5,141 @ $35.94$185K−24.1% of holding−6.0%not yet — horizon still open16,218Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Rascoff Spencer MdirectorWithheld for tax9,406227,981Form 4
2026-09-01Rascoff Spencer MdirectorWithheld for tax6,608234,359Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerWithheld for tax4,30228,637Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerWithheld for tax2,66244,416Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerWithheld for tax1,88040,315Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerWithheld for tax97224,485Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerWithheld for tax73437,418Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerWithheld for tax69722,815Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerWithheld for tax65721,483Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerWithheld for tax44120,230Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise51107Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerOption exercise66396Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerOption exercise4,61227,668Form 4
2026-09-01Rascoff Spencer MdirectorOption exercise17,850107,100Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise21216Form 4
2026-09-01Rascoff Spencer MdirectorOption exercise1371,383Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerOption exercise165988Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise1,2312,463Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerOption exercise72153Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerOption exercise71721Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise2,00820,077Form 4
2026-09-01Rascoff Spencer MdirectorOption exercise12,849128,494Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise66396Form 4
2026-09-01Rascoff Spencer MdirectorOption exercise6353,820Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerOption exercise8,36583,655Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerOption exercise1,84511,067Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise1,84411,068Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerOption exercise6,69266,924Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerOption exercise89901Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerOption exercise1,7913,582Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerOption exercise4,61242,030Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerOption exercise1,84525,391Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise2123,512Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerOption exercise6625,457Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise1,84422,074Form 4
2026-09-01Bailey Steven Richard Jr.officerOption exercise1,79138,080Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise2,00823,491Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise1,84422,074Form 4
2026-09-01Eigenmann Philip DofficerOption exercise2,00823,491Form 4
2026-09-01Edgett SeanofficerOption exercise8932,939Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-12-062023-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-06-122023-05-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-05-082023-04-25$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2023-02-172023-01-31$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-02-072023-01-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-02-072023-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-01-062022-12-06$1–15K
Ron WydenSenatesale2022-12-112022-11-11$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-12-062022-12-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-12-062022-11-03$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-10-072022-09-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-10-072022-05-29$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.