Issued 2026-09-16 at $226.01 · now $226.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MTB has typically landed between $199.82 and $256.58 — a range of −11.6% to +13.5% from the issuance price $226.01.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($226.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MTB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $226.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $226.01 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $229.85 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $216.65–$243.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $199.82–$256.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −47.3% | −47.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-12-17 | −42.0% | −42.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −41.3% | −41.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +55.1% | +0.0% | +59.8% |
| 2009-03-11 | +53.0% | +0.0% | +53.0% |
| 2009-03-06 | +48.9% | +0.0% | +53.1% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$36.2B
market cap
$18.96
EPS (TTM)
13.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-16
next earnings
Revenue$12.3B
'20'25
Net income$2.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr23.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.45
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$608.20
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$310.60
- Analyst target · range $224.00–$300.00$257.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$226.01
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Mar
53%
−1.5%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.3%
n=19
May
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Sep
47%
+1.4%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.4%
n=18
Nov
83%
+3.8%
n=18
Dec
67%
+0.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | JONES RENE F | director | Sale | 19,396 @ $239.35 | $4.6M | −15.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 103,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Seseri Rudina | director | Sale | 623 @ $241.04 | $150K | −14.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,649 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Taylor John R. | officer | Sale | 1,217 @ $253.84 | $309K | −28.4% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,062 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | WALTERS KIRK W | director | Sale | 9 @ $253.77 | $2K | −100.0% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Ledgett Richard H. Jr. | director | Sale | 855 @ $248.16 | $212K | −15.4% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $242.00 | $484K | −4.3% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Woodrow Tracy S. | officer | Sale | 881 @ $242.00 | $213K | −8.4% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,608 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Taylor John R. | officer | Sale | 1,098 @ $233.23 | $256K | −20.4% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,279 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Sale | 18,722 @ $225.20 | $4.2M | −27.0% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Sale | 4,636 @ $226.70 | $1.1M | −9.1% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,107 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $220.00 | $440K | −4.2% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,107 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kay Christopher E. | officer | Sale | 3,105 @ $216.50 | $672K | −31.5% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,753 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wisler Michael A. | officer | Sale | 8,237 @ $223.48 | $1.8M | −63.9% of holding | −2.5% | −5.7% | 4,643 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Woodrow Tracy S. | officer | Sale | 1,053 @ $234.21 | $247K | −11.3% of holding | −11.5% | −3.6% | 8,234 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | BARNES JOHN P | director | Sale | 21,193 @ $235.85 | $5.0M | −58.3% of holding | −10.8% | −3.4% | 15,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | WALTERS KIRK W | director | Sale | 909 @ $227.37 | $207K | −13.2% of holding | −3.5% | −0.2% | 5,976 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Taylor John R. | officer | Sale | 704 @ $225.34 | $159K | −12.4% of holding | −0.6% | +2.3% | 4,972 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | GEISEL GARY N | director | Sale | 887 @ $215.79 | $191K | −5.1% of holding | +1.4% | +8.3% | 16,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | BARNES JOHN P | director | Sale | 17,866 @ $220.81 | $3.9M | −100.0% of holding | +3.1% | +8.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Kay Christopher E. | officer | Sale | 5,250 @ $191.70 | $1.0M | −48.8% of holding | +6.9% | +1.5% | 5,501 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | SADLER ROBERT E JR | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $190.06 | $1.1M | −26.0% of holding | +6.5% | +1.8% | 17,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Woodrow Tracy S. | officer | Sale | 3,429 @ $202.12 | $693K | −33.0% of holding | −4.8% | +5.0% | 6,952 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Taylor John R. | officer | Sale | 448 @ $199.78 | $90K | −7.7% of holding | −2.2% | +6.9% | 5,356 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | BARNES JOHN P | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $199.79 | $3.0M | −45.6% of holding | −1.9% | +4.0% | 17,866 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Sale | 10,959 @ $193.71 | $2.1M | −20.2% of holding | −0.4% | +13.4% | 43,215 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Sale | 6,762 @ $192.43 | $1.3M | −11.1% of holding | −0.4% | +13.4% | 54,174 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Sale | 4,330 @ $192.80 | $835K | −100.0% of holding | −0.4% | +13.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Sale | 2,366 @ $194.08 | $459K | −5.5% of holding | −0.4% | +13.4% | 40,849 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | D'Arcy Peter | officer | Sale | 1,937 @ $197.17 | $382K | −16.4% of holding | −3.3% | +3.5% | 9,843 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | D'Arcy Peter | officer | Sale | 524 @ $197.82 | $104K | −5.3% of holding | −3.3% | +3.5% | 9,319 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Ledgett Richard H. Jr. | director | Sale | 1,277 @ $197.48 | $252K | −20.7% of holding | −4.3% | +1.7% | 4,881 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | SADLER ROBERT E JR | director | Sale | 6,700 @ $183.52 | $1.2M | −22.5% of holding | +3.9% | −1.2% | 23,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kay Christopher E. | officer | Sale | 1,738 @ $172.34 | $300K | −13.9% of holding | −2.4% | −1.7% | 10,751 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | GEISEL GARY N | director | Sale | 2,490 @ $215.89 | $538K | −100.0% of holding | −9.0% | −12.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
188 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | JONES RENE F | director | Withheld for tax | 15,101 | 123,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | JONES RENE F | director | Option exercise | 16,770 | 138,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | JONES RENE F | director | Option exercise | 16,770 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Bible Daryl N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,043 | 26,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Jacobs Jeremy M Jr | director | Award / grant | 589 | 589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Woodrow Tracy S. | officer | Option exercise | 505 | 10,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Woodrow Tracy S. | officer | Option exercise | 376 | 9,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Woodrow Tracy S. | officer | Option exercise | 505 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Woodrow Tracy S. | officer | Option exercise | 376 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Taylor John R. | officer | Option exercise | 269 | 5,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Taylor John R. | officer | Option exercise | 269 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Option exercise | 13,296 | 69,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Option exercise | 10,062 | 56,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Option exercise | 13,296 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Option exercise | 10,062 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Seseri Rudina | director | Award / grant | 664 | 4,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | RICH MELINDA R | director | Award / grant | 664 | 24,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | GODRIDGE LESLIE V | director | Award / grant | 664 | 5,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | BARNES JOHN P | director | Award / grant | 664 | 15,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Chwick Jane | director | Award / grant | 664 | 6,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | WASHINGTON HERBERT L | director | Award / grant | 664 | 18,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Charles Carlton J. | director | Award / grant | 664 | 3,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | WALTERS KIRK W | director | Award / grant | 664 | 6,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Cruger William Frank Jr. | director | Award / grant | 687 | 9,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | SALAMONE DENIS J | director | Award / grant | 664 | 45,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Ledgett Richard H. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 664 | 5,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Wisler Michael A. | officer | Option exercise | 2,588 | 10,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Wisler Michael A. | officer | Option exercise | 2,163 | 12,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Wisler Michael A. | officer | Option exercise | 2,163 | 1,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Wisler Michael A. | officer | Option exercise | 2,588 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | JONES RENE F | director | Withheld for tax | 8,270 | 121,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | PEARSON KEVIN J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,364 | 48,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kay Christopher E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,845 | 9,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | D'Arcy Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,370 | 12,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Wisler Michael A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 994 | 8,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Woodrow Tracy S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 921 | 9,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | O'Hara Laura P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 683 | 9,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Urban Julianne | officer | Withheld for tax | 341 | 8,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Taylor John R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 97 | 5,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | JONES RENE F | director | Award / grant | 16,199 | 129,828 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-05-06 | 2024-04-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.