Issued 2026-09-16 at $126.18 · now $126.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSTR has typically landed between $84.14 and $189.08 — a range of −33.3% to +49.8% from the issuance price $126.18.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($126.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MSTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $126.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $126.18 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $123.8 (-1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $100.68–$146.92
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $84.14–$189.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −61.5% | −61.5% | +8.0% |
| 2022-04-12 | −61.4% | −62.1% | +6.2% |
| 2022-04-19 | −58.1% | −64.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-07 | +180.6% | +0.0% | +180.6% |
| 2024-02-23 | +170.0% | +0.0% | +170.0% |
| 2024-02-01 | +164.9% | −2.6% | +164.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+6.6%
n=20
Feb
55%
+6.2%
n=20
Mar
55%
+4.4%
n=20
Apr
55%
+2.0%
n=20
May
40%
−1.5%
n=20
Jun
40%
−2.1%
n=20
Jul
55%
+5.7%
n=20
Aug
40%
−1.0%
n=20
Sep
45%
+1.3%
n=20
Oct
75%
+9.0%
n=20
Nov
55%
+5.7%
n=20
Dec
35%
−3.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chow Thomas C. | officer | Sale | 106 @ $138.75 | $15K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 925 @ $131.00 | $121K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 925 @ $129.00 | $119K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,331 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 925 @ $127.00 | $117K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 925 @ $125.00 | $116K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 925 @ $124.00 | $115K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 925 @ $122.34 | $113K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 1,950 @ $101.50 | $198K | −6.4% of holding | +37.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 925 @ $104.03 | $96K | −3.2% of holding | +37.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 925 @ $102.69 | $95K | −3.2% of holding | +37.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 1,950 @ $98.48 | $192K | −6.4% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 1,950 @ $92.45 | $180K | −6.4% of holding | +30.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $100.00 | $125K | −4.2% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $106.08 | $159K | −5.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Le Phong | director | Purchase | 11,000 @ $90.80 | $999K | ownership Δ n/a | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $121.31 | $182K | −5.0% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Chow Thomas C. | officer | Purchase | 100 @ $92.71 | $9K | ownership Δ n/a | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Chow Thomas C. | officer | Purchase | 11 @ $66.10 | $727 | ownership Δ n/a | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 11 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $133.97 | $201K | −5.0% of holding | −28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 2,888 @ $123.38 | $356K | −2.2% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,957 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 2,579 @ $124.33 | $321K | −2.0% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,378 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $123.38 | $126K | −1.4% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,974 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 910 @ $124.33 | $113K | −1.3% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,064 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Montgomery Jeanine | officer | Sale | 185 @ $123.38 | $23K | −1.6% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,378 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Montgomery Jeanine | officer | Sale | 165 @ $124.33 | $21K | −1.5% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,213 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 55 @ $124.88 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,323 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 20 @ $124.88 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,044 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Montgomery Jeanine | officer | Sale | 4 @ $124.88 | $500 | −0.0% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,209 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 16,303 @ $119.53 | $1.9M | −10.4% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,996 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 15,954 @ $118.59 | $1.9M | −9.3% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,299 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 15,892 @ $117.53 | $1.9M | −8.4% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,253 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 13,149 @ $116.57 | $1.5M | −6.5% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,145 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 10,719 @ $115.35 | $1.2M | −5.1% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 201,294 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 5,882 @ $122.55 | $721K | −4.4% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,085 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,750 @ $119.53 | $687K | −7.0% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,812 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,627 @ $118.59 | $667K | −6.5% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,562 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,605 @ $117.53 | $659K | −6.0% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,189 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 5,144 @ $124.24 | $639K | −4.1% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,198 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 4,638 @ $116.57 | $541K | −4.8% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,794 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 3,858 @ $120.22 | $464K | −2.8% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,138 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 3,743 @ $123.39 | $462K | −2.9% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,342 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 3,781 @ $115.35 | $436K | −3.7% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,432 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 2,075 @ $122.55 | $254K | −2.8% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,963 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,814 @ $124.24 | $225K | −2.6% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,829 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 1,650 @ $114.79 | $189K | −0.8% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 212,013 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,361 @ $120.22 | $164K | −1.8% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,451 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $123.39 | $163K | −1.8% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,643 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 1,171 @ $121.59 | $142K | −0.9% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,967 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 582 @ $114.79 | $67K | −0.6% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,213 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 413 @ $121.59 | $50K | −0.6% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,038 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Phong | director | Sale | 273 @ $125.14 | $34K | −0.2% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,925 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Kang Andrew | officer | Sale | 96 @ $125.14 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,733 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-29 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 4,250 @ $161.75 | $687K | −13.2% of holding | −44.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 4,250 @ $150.85 | $641K | −11.0% of holding | −44.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,550 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $154.00 | $308K | −6.7% of holding | −44.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $153.00 | $306K | −6.3% of holding | −44.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $152.00 | $304K | −5.9% of holding | −44.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 550 @ $155.00 | $85K | −1.6% of holding | −44.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 3,250 @ $145.56 | $473K | −9.2% of holding | −37.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $152.00 | $152K | −3.4% of holding | −37.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
172 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,850 | 30,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,850 | 26,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 925 | 29,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 2,775 | 28,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 925 | 29,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 925 | 31,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,950 | 30,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 925 | 29,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,950 | 34,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 925 | 33,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 925 | 32,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,950 | 30,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,950 | 36,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,950 | 30,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,950 | 38,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,250 | 29,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,250 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 29,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 41,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 29,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 42,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 29,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Patten Jarrod M | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 44,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Le Phong | director | Option exercise | 11,920 | 11,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Montgomery Jeanine | officer | Option exercise | 1,140 | 1,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Kang Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 4,260 | 4,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Montgomery Jeanine | officer | Option exercise | 1,140 | 11,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Montgomery Jeanine | officer | Option exercise | 1,140 | 11,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Kang Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 4,260 | 72,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Kang Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 4,260 | 72,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Le Phong | director | Option exercise | 11,920 | 131,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Le Phong | director | Option exercise | 11,920 | 131,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Le Phong | director | Option exercise | 190,740 | 213,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kang Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 68,120 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Le Phong | director | Option exercise | 190,740 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kang Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 68,120 | 101,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BROOKS BRIAN P | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 1,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | WINIARSKI GREGG | director | Award / grant | 943 | 943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | WINIARSKI GREGG | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 1,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | WINIARSKI GREGG | director | Option exercise | 406 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.